QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 5 2017, 11:58 AM)
Tq bro gark,... yeah, I recalled we discussed this earlier, buy in light of more complete details from OCBC,... and recently, Religare Capital started coverage too,.. I was thinking if our opinions of the fundamentals could have improved.
Jackson Square is under rental support and is expected to be 75% occupied. Location is not really that good, so we expect some negative reversion. Also it is classified under light industrial and not BP. Impact to revenue after the rental support guarantee expire will be around 30-35%. Jackson Sq contributes about 6% of total income.
UEB Bizhub, got more potential, with 89% occupied and further occupancy once the MRT line is completed with some fair rental reversion. I would expect impact to revenue to be very small, maybe around 5-10%. UEB Bizhub contributes about 30% income.
However the Bizhub hotel will not do as well once the rental guarantee expires, similar to hotel occupancy in singapore, we expect the occupancy will be lower at 70-80% vs 99.5% with rental support. This will likely reduce the income by 25%-30%. The hotel contributes about 13% income.
For viva BP, current occupation is at 73%, and after the latest AEI, we expect the rental to go up as the current rental is too low for a pure BP. Also occupancy should be moving up and the white space should generate more income. We expect the rental income will increase by 10%-20%. VBP contributes about 29% income.
Jackson design hub is also under master lease, and would be expiring soon, but the impact should not be too big at maybe 5%-10%. JDH contributes 3% of income.
Taken as an aggregate, for worse case scenario, the impact on loss of income will be -2% from JS, -2% from Bizhub, -3.5% from Hotel, +4.3% from VBP and -0.2% from JDH. Weighted average potential reduction on revenue and income will be around 3% and 7% respectively.
Also to note that VBP land lease is expiring in 15 years, Jackson square in 12.6 years and 30 pioneer road at 20.4 years. We have to take into account at worst case scenario, after the expiry of the land lease we expect no more income for these properties. So the NET decay rate for property will be 6.6%, 7.9% and 5%. These property represents 40% of the total properties, so the decay rate will be around 2.8% net.
I think the price now is fair value, but I would not take anything less than 9% from the potential income reduction after rental support ends and the high decay value of 2.8% (which is consider capital return).
The above is my opinion only, and am not responsible for your gains or losses. I am vested in Viva.