QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2012, 11:24 AM)
Market timing is easier said than done. Studies have shown that those who sell after a downturn has hit to avoid further loss are about as likely to miss out on a rally as to succeed in cutting their losses. And historically the largest rallies come just after downturns. Not saying that it's impossible of course, but it really is a judgment call. If you see a dip now, do you know if it's just a temporary aberration or the start of a long plunge? If you hesitated and it really did plunge, do you know if an upturn is just around the corner or if the stock is in for a further fall?In the absence of any clear idea of what to do, holding might not be that bad an idea.
Personal anecdote: I basically held through the 2008 recession. I did suspect that something big was brewing beginning from 2007 but it was hard to predict when exactly things would go bad so I didn't sell. However, I did hold off on adding any more money from 2007, diverting new money into safe assets (like FD and the Malaysian government bond funds) instead. Because of this, I had extra money to spend when I judged that things had settled down enough to start buying. Maybe I could have done better by selling everything the right time and buying back later, but I wasn't confident about the timing and so just held. I'm pretty happy with how I did overall so I don't worry about any potential extra gains I may have missed out on.
Apr 26 2012, 11:50 AM

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