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 AS1M/ASM/ASW2020/ASN/ASB and other PNB funds V3, lending your money to the government

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gark
post Jul 16 2012, 01:09 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Jul 15 2012, 08:28 PM)
Best time to buy Bond is when bank interest rate is low. When bank interest rate is very high, bond is not in demand.

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LOL have you even bought bonds? Bond earnings are inverse with interest rate, If interest rate goes up, bond prices falls and vice versa. You should buy bond when the interest rate is HIGH, and wait for it to fall to reap multiple earnings both from the interest and the rise of bond prices.

If you plan to hold until maturity, then the interest rate does not matter. tongue.gif


Added on July 16, 2012, 1:12 pm
QUOTE(guy3288 @ Jul 15 2012, 11:48 PM)
The old bonds mentioned above, if you want, you go to the bank and buy it from secondary market, that would be at a premium.
Eg when it was launched the first owner paid RM256k for a 250k bond, if you were to buy from secondary market now, may be you have to pay RM280-290k.

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Yes the bonds have all risen in prices due to interest rates has been steadily declining not only in Malaysia, but in the world. If interest rates starts to shoot up, the bond value of 280k-290k will drop back to 250K or EVEN LESS if the interest rate EXCEEDS the bond coupon value. Be very very careful on this aspect. sweat.gif Even if you wait until maturity you will have capital loss as the bond will pay back it's nominal-value which is 250K when launched. wink.gif

To buy bond, don't look at the bond price or the coupon value. You need to calculate the yield to maturity %.

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 16 2012, 01:15 PM
gark
post Jul 18 2012, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Jul 18 2012, 09:31 AM)
Genting Singapore Bond at fixed coupon of 5.125% payable semiannually.
How to compare this with AS1M if assuming AS1M average return is 6%?
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That one is a perpetual bond, which means no redemption date and the period is infinite. Even a slight increase in interest rate will kill the bond value. wink.gif Very risky. But if interest rate is further reduced, you get a jackpot. Don't play if you don't understand.

Buying single bond CAN be as risky as equity. If you want to invest in bond, suggest to go a bond fund, where they have a basket of bond to mitigate the risk.


Added on July 18, 2012, 9:57 am
QUOTE(guy3288 @ Jul 18 2012, 12:01 AM)
OK i shouldnt tell people, best time to buy is when interest rate is LOW. I said already when bank interest rate low, good demand for bond, sure the price would be higher.

But,  that was what i did. Bank interest rate so low why keep in bank? might as well go buy bonds which pay higher return.And i found the 7.25% pa bonds, even buy first hand also there is fees (actual is RM4400). I even buy some from secondary market paying upto RM12k premium, i remember calculated it, the 12k fees can be recouped after some 18months+, subsequently can enjoy the nett extra returns.

I dont buy bond to sell it at higher price, but now i am pleasantly surprised that the value is 280-290k! Would i sell for the profit? i dont think so, what to do with that money, where to earn return higher than 7.25%, i am not good at investments.
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Like previously said, you need to calculate the yield to maturity. This can be calculated from the bond price, remaining period and coupon value. If you can list the above, we can calculate the yield to maturity to see if you got a bargain. brows.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 18 2012, 09:59 AM
gark
post Jul 18 2012, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Jul 18 2012, 02:48 PM)
If you can calculate for us to see, why not?
Here is the details:
1) Public Bank Berhad Non-Innovative Tier 1 Stapled Capital Securities ("NIT-1")
Offer period 25.5.09-28.5.09

I bought 1 lot during offer period at  RM101.7600 = RM254400 .
Then  another from open market in December 2009 at RM104.8200 = RM262820.55
So far dividend pay out at 7.5% , has been as expected. Half yearly RM9349.32-9400.68.

Statement dated 30.6.12 showed that  the market price is now RM115.7700 = RM290,555.14

Is it worth selling now?
Ratings AA2
Maturity - Perpetual with first call at 10 year. On paper it is 5.6.2059
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If no call...until 2059

1st lot Yield To Maturity = 7.37%
2nd lot Yield To Maturity = 7.12%

If you buy now at current rate, YTM = 6.4%

If your bond is called in 10 years by the bank (you have no choice in this)...

1st lot Yield To Call = 7.25%
2nd Lot Yield To Call = 6.78%

If buy at current rate, YTC = 4.72%

IMHO, the bank is very likely to call the bond and re-issue one with lower interest rate... looking at the interest rate environment wink.gif
Also the returns are somewhat higher than A-AAA diversified bond funds (5%-6.5%)... although some bond funds posted 9%-11% last year.

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 18 2012, 04:16 PM
gark
post Jul 20 2012, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Jul 19 2012, 07:08 PM)
Thanks for the calculation.

So it looks like the first buyer tend to make more and the later buyer would gain less, since the YTM or YTC seems to be falling with time, as the price moves up.

So can we say for someone who expects a minimum return of 4%, there is no point in buying up this bond when the calculation 
produces a YTC of less than 4%, even though after buying it up it actually pays you 7.5% pa?

Then, by extrapolation, shall we say by the time the calculated YTM/YTC falls below that expected min of say 4%, that is the time to sell and get out of this bond?

Thanks for your input.
PS: If by maturity the price of this bond falls below cost, the bank interest rate would have been very high right? may be 12% or more?? just curious....
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Yes the cheaper the bond to the face value, the higher the yield, for example greek bond is selling at 30%-50% face value with yield as high as 35%, but the risk is greater. The shorter the period the lower the yield but more stability in interest rate movement, so this is risk vs. gain. Some people can sacrifice lower yield for better loss protection, so yes there are people who buy short term low yield bonds. Although the cuopon pays you 7.5% but since you have bought at inflated price, the yield will be lower. The decision to sell the bond depends on the YTM/YTC or the interest rate outlook in the future. If you think the interest rate going up then sell, if maintain stable or lower in the future then keep. Bond purchasers eye BNM announcement like a hawk. wink.gif

You need to ask your RM to advice you all this the next time you buy bond, if he/she can;t answer or advice, find another RM. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 20 2012, 10:45 AM

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