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 Are property prices going to up further? V4, nothing's gonna stop us now

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AVFAN
post Nov 23 2011, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinfixx @ Nov 23 2011, 03:49 PM)
The property price is stagnant according to most people. If you have any report please voice up.

i have one prop on rental and one for sale.
just one sample - both rental and subsale price stagnant in the last 6 months.

buy now, flip at 30% gain, pls dream on. tongue.gif

AVFAN
post Dec 13 2011, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(samuelazz @ Dec 12 2011, 09:19 PM)
Pricing is crazy already especially with DIBS. even the segambut dalam condos such as the one by brdb are selling >rm700psf! price of older MK units seems reasonable now.
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one high priced new one does not say it all. some developers are still tyring to catch the water fishes, local or foreign - pure investors.

segambut dalam/dutamas condos - existing ones can fetch only 300-400psf. the cheapest and oldest ones <300 psf.
price of existing ones aren't too high and not expected to rise much anymore in the near term.
that is consistent with neighboring mk where many older condos are priced reasonmably, like you said.
AVFAN
post Dec 14 2011, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Dec 14 2011, 09:19 AM)
Jalan Ampang flooded meh? I thought Jalan Tun Razak flooded? Also I think the flood not too high also. Won't affect anything gua. You guys better scared of economic downturn and bubble in KL. Even in Singapore flood Orchard Road also won't affect the property price there.
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not wise to ignore possibility of worsening floods in near future.
changes in weather patterns are not going away anytime soon.
some gomens will spend big money and do all it can to mitigate future flooding.
some will just call it act of god or bad luck, wait for next flood.

if buying new home esp in new area, should pay special attention to any news of flooding in and around that area.
we know some developers are not very responsible.
once some houses in an area are flooded, the stigma doesn't go away easily.

of course, double jeopardy when the new home area turns out to be flood prone, with a recession in the economy.
that would be a real disaster.
AVFAN
post Dec 15 2011, 06:26 PM

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foreigners buying cheap local props? lots of foreign money coming in? debt is fine, no worries?
give a little thought why and how those crooks are siphoning so much money away from the country and what happens when the music stops.
we little fellas should be afraid, be very afraid!

QUOTE
Malaysia rises in illegal money chart, RM150b lost in 2009
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 15 — Malaysia lost RM150 billion in illicit outflows in 2009, the fourth highest in the developing world, says US-based watchdog Global Financial Integrity (GFI).
According to its report on illicit financial flows from developing countries released today, Malaysia lost a total of US$338 billion (RM1.08 trillion) over the first decade of the century.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...b-lost-in-2009/



AVFAN
post Dec 16 2011, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(iloveuforever @ Dec 16 2011, 11:49 AM)
Crash?? I don think so...as many here is rich....all still got the money to support...it won crash...it will just stagnant  rclxms.gif    thumbup.gif
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you mean "rich" in debt? tongue.gif
but probably true will not be big crash unless world great depression; stagnant or small correction more likely in general.
can expect much fewer transactions - which will have a chain reaction - poor biz for banks, lawyers, landoffice, tax dept...

this prop boom in bolehland started in late 2009.
the (fake) gurus were saying the surge in buying in 2009-2010 was due to previous lack of launches, pent up demand, not specualtive, all is good, etc.
so it took only 2 years to bust? not very strong, is it?
those in ireland and usa, etc. went on for >10yrs before busting!
perhaps if the debt levels weren't that high before 2009 and 150b didn't leave the country illegally in 2009, might have soom room to hold or grow for another 5 yrs.
housing+car+cc debt servicing going to kill most people's buying and spending habits.
inflation will stay high, but it's a myth to assume with inflation, prices will keep going up - and people still buy.
where to find the money? borrow from ahlongs??

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 16 2011, 12:22 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 23 2011, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(epie @ Dec 23 2011, 10:37 AM)
Now I understand,

all data and statements that show price will increase further, cannot be trusted, no matter where it comes from

we must trust all data and statements that show property price will fall
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we already know the main media always lie and show all is well when much is sick. that's why all pro-gomen newspapers are losing sales.
better pay attention to the slightest negative news - it usually is more serious than presented. if serious enough, many will then jump in to say more.

not hoping for any major crash but a slowdown (and even a recession) is imminent, despite all that's been said by eternal optimists.
house prices may not fall more than 10% but fewer will buy, i.e. the cash tight and over-leveraged will find it awful.
office and commercial are already feeling the pressure.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 23 2011, 10:52 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 28 2011, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Dec 28 2011, 02:56 PM)
Twisting the meaning of opinions by others will not bring you anyway, it only shows how immature you are when others dont agree wif u icon_idea.gif

Studios are not meant for family. i think i mentioned clearly HOME and FAMILY. For speculators that think they cant flip SOHO, Studios, etc etc, by all means go BBB, if you are so confident property prices will only UP UP UP. This segment is created by developers to earn as much as they can before the property market turns south and i hv no issues with developers sucking up speculative $$ earned by flippers.

BTW, I already owned a HOME, no need pigeon hole.

my advise to genuine buyers: assess your options and dont fall prey to biased speculative opinions.


Added on December 28, 2011, 2:57 pm

i agreed with you 1000%, those who bought SOHO SOFO units at ridiculously high price to flip will have sleepless nights in 1-2 years time.&nbsp; biggrin.gif
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can't help but say 2000% agree! thumbup.gif

if investors and speculators are smart, the developers are smarter. those soho-sofo-sovo bought >2 yrs ago maybe can do ok but recent new ones, i see big trouble.
most new ones are launched with promises of big malls, clubs, etc. - these may never get built given more reports of a coming office-commercial glut that will have an overhang for some years.
look around the malls - how many are doing well? even 1u tenants reported lots of people walking around but far fewer spending during last x'mas. still can't see how majority of people's purchasing power have shrunk?

houses and residential condos for genuine home buyers won't get hit so bad as they form the backbone of all housing. even these, i would at best expect prices to stay stagnant, not rise significantly in the next 2-3 years. prices may not fall, but selling will be much harder than say 12m ago - already happening now, afaik.

let's watch what developers will do next:
1. continue raising prices for new phases in existing areas?
2. hold prices w/less builtup?
3. move to new further out areas with all kinds of promises, start with "low" price?
my guess is 3. they know many still wanna continue to punt. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 28 2011, 03:34 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 18 2012, 10:20 AM

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the man just arrived from jupiter. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 18 2012, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 18 2012, 03:16 PM)
I don't know why people keep on using majority people affordability as reason to say property price is doom.

You don't need majority people can afford,
you just need enough people that can afford it.

Car price here is extra-ordinary expensive, 100k, 200k, 300k also got, which is way beyond majority affordability, but I still see many of those car, and those car dealer is not closing down nor slashing price.

Yes, increase 50% in 3-5 years is unprecedented, and unlikely to repeat.
Doom or storming coming or not, I don't know, I don't have the crystal ball to know, but the uncertainty mentioned is the one current limit the price surge, which is good, without those uncertainty, we might as well as see the price ballooning even higher.
Don't get me wrong, I also view house price should dip/correct after tremendous surge for the past few year.
But I don't agree the majority affordability theory.
As long as there is enough buyers to meet the supply, price stay, as simple as that, the most simple ultimate supply and demand theory.

Got 1k unit 1 million house, if got 1k buyers want to buy, price stay. Whether the rest 20 million people majority cannot afford to buy the 1 million house, it doesn't alter or matter for the price.
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in the same way, i dun understand why people keep saying there are enough people with the means to buy all the props today at current prices.

the truth is in the supply and demand of the various classes of homes in relation to their income, cash and debt position.
in a general discussion like this, we are neither refering to below 100k low cost apts nor above 1 mil ones.
we are refering to the mainstream 300-500k homes which have now become 500-800k.

you have always argued there are enough of those who can keep buying to buoy the current supply.
pls make it clear if you are saying there are and will be enough of these buyers willing and can afford all these 500-800k homes, incl those coming onstream in the next 2-3 yrs or being launched new now. at least in the klang valley.

my position is there aren't enough to take up the supply in the next 2-3 yrs such that prices will stagnate or fall slightly.
because many who want to buy don't have the means and many of those who have the means are the ones that have invested and want to sell.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 18 2012, 04:18 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 19 2012, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(Seremban_Guy123 @ Jan 19 2012, 11:01 AM)
Japan in deflation mode. Anybody can further explain this?  icon_question.gif
Just wanna know more on this.... tq
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textbook definitions:

QUOTE
Definition of 'Deflation'
A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression. Central banks attempt to stop severe deflation, along with severe inflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive drop in prices to a minimum.
The decline in prices of assets, is often known as Asset Deflation.
Investopedia explains 'Deflation'
Declining prices, if they persist, generally create a vicious spiral of negatives such as falling profits,  closing factories, shrinking employment and incomes, and increasing defaults on loans by companies and individuals. To counter deflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) can use monetary policy to increase the money supply and deliberately induce rising prices, causing inflation. Rising prices provide an essential lubricant for any sustained recovery because businesses increase profits and take some of the depressive pressures off wages and debtors of every kind.
Deflationary periods can be both short or long, relatively speaking. Japan, for example, had a period of deflation lasting decades starting in the early 1990's. The Japanese government lowered interest rates to try and stimulate inflation, to no avail. Zero interest rate policy was ended in July of 2006.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflat...p#ixzz1jsE2qny5

Stagflation
A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment - a time of stagnation - accompanied by a rise in prices, or inflation.
Investopedia explains 'Stagflation'
Stagflation occurs when the economy isn't growing but prices are, which is not a good situation for a country to be in. This happened to a great extent during the 1970s, when world oil prices rose dramatically, fueling sharp inflation in developed countries. For these countries, including the U.S., stagnation increased the inflationary effects.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagfl...p#ixzz1jsDtGL3S


since there is no decrease in money supply or credit but increase instead here, deflation can't happen. more likely now getting into stagflation - high prices but less and less people will buy. in the prop context, profits are locked up, can't sell easily, but continue paying instalment and int to keep the profits on paper. one may argue employment is good here, so stagflation doesn't fit either. this may be distorted in bolehland since a large protion is with iron rice bowl gomen payroll, a large portion with glcs, a large portion with cos. like tm/contractors where 8 fellas are employed to install unifi in one house. when actual unemployment starts to increase, the effects on stagflation or recession may be greatly accelerated and amplified. very tough then, i suppose.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 19 2012, 12:19 PM
AVFAN
post Feb 3 2012, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(NNathan @ Feb 3 2012, 05:43 PM)
Anyway back to topic; my friend in real estate told me developers are seeing record profits. That is why they can offer 5% downpayment only, the other 5% as discounts etc - actually because they already pakat with the banks and mark up the prices based on the 'discounts' they are going to give.

spot on.

developers in cahoots with banks and gomen have been raking in record profits while gorengers feast and genuine buyers sulk. incredible some still say developers have low margins...

AVFAN
post Feb 12 2012, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(phoenix69 @ Feb 12 2012, 01:30 PM)
Current sentiment from Aunties corner.:- tongue.gif

Price of property gonna go up. cos..
More foreign invester are starting to buy properties in Malaysia and Singapore due to Malaysia's and Singapore's "bencana alam's" possibility.
Australia - flood "possibility of inland sea,
Indonesia - earthquake and tsunami
Thailand - flood (next round) possibily May
China - eathquake and pollution
Japan - tsunami earthquake and radiation.
India, Vietnam - developing but not chic enough
Malaysia and Singapore, - best in this region.

What do you think.. hmm.gif
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so, buy props in MY becos of tragedies in neighboring countries?
on a hunch, fengshui or 2012 prediction sub details?
ingenious! najiz and bn so very happy. tongue.gif

AVFAN
post Feb 15 2012, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Feb 15 2012, 10:26 AM)
Govt wants to gather feedback on implementation of GST
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...80&sec=business
on one hand said gathering feedback but in the body of the news, Donald Lim said Malaysia had no choice but to introduce the tax scheme sooner or later.
more hardship ahead for Malaysians.
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bn gomen need more money to buy more submarines, build patrol boats, give handouts.
no choice, must find big money elsewhere.
gst, 1care, 1epf... all is simply sapu (not satu) malaysia.
maybe they'll raise income tax too.
so, buy more props now to protect yr wealth?!!

AVFAN
post Feb 15 2012, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Feb 15 2012, 02:19 PM)
First page at the bottom, Q3 2011 index is lower then Q2 2011 index. (153.1 vs 155.1, -1.3%)
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that slight a drop may not mean much but it does mean it did not go up in that period, so it's not up and up.
QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Feb 15 2012, 03:40 PM)
Look like Q3 2011 house price showing sign of slowing down especially under Selangor & terrace house.
but only as Preliminary study. Clearer picture will be on Q4 2011 & Q1 2012 on the trend up or down.
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under selangor, petaling district weaker that hulu langat and kelang.
yup, need 2 more qtrs data to confirm. actually, not falling hard but can already see overall subsale prices softening. deny, then can't see or hear anything.
QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Feb 15 2012, 04:13 PM)
haha.....mana ada tongue.gif
here banyak orang said my friend lar, that friend lar all cash rich ppl, where they takut...sap sap water for them hold few years biggrin.gif
if down long time, mah do mushroom farming or swiftlet house lor whistling.gif
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aint that the truth... add 10k salary 25yr olds, cina-sg buyers sapu cheap cheap, no problem... tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Feb 23 2012, 10:28 AM

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local prop prices may not crash, but won't go up for some time.

unless one thinks prop prices are totally detached from the overall local economy.

auto sector sales down 25%
QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR: Automotive industry players will meet Bank Negara Malaysia on Friday to discuss the new guidelines for loan borrowers, following the 25 per cent drop in sales of new motor vehicles last month, says Proton.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...20&sec=business


manufact investment down 26%
QUOTE
Total approved manufacturing investment in the fourth quarter of 2011 had contracted by 26.6 per cent to RM19.1 billion compared with the fourth quarter of 2010.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...s-rhb-research/


prop prices still up-up-up? with gomen sitting on their butts politicking everyday of the year, year after year, dishing out angpows whenever they like, how strong is the economy?
AVFAN
post Feb 25 2012, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 25 2012, 02:13 PM)
Go down or not, I don't know.
But inflation pressure is everywhere.
Oil price now near USD110.
Civil servant may get payrise which can be range from RM700 to Rm2500 payrise.
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsgeneral.php?id=647367
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=...2199&sec=nation
Cheap interest rate around the globe, even locally, the OPR at 3% seems peak, and many predict BNM may cut rate in the near future.
China start to relax the SRR.
All are favourable to inflation.
I don't see how an inflation threat environment can prompt a property market crash, or severe price down.
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generally speaking for a basket of goods:

inflation always cause prices of everything to go up, forever? consumers and markets don't react? I doubt it.
if that's true, any economy can sustain growth and wealth just by printing more money with little consequence.
inflation as the name suggest, push prices up but only to an extent.
then, more likely it will trigger a recession as demand drops, few can afford.
even debt has a limit. a new cycle will then come into play.
if you disagree with the above, perhaps it's because you see it going on for another decade before it turns while i see it already started.
from what i know, many major recessions/depressions were preceded by protracted high inflation.
how long the recession will last, who knows.

for local props, the signs and evidence of price softening (not crashing) are everywhere. just talk to a few subsellers, bankers and prop agents and listen carefully what they say. obviously some don't want to know or very confident their investments are special and unaffected.

bnm has just dismissed a request to change the rules for car loans, unlikley they will change for prop loans any time soon.
blr or reserve reduction is possible to give a temp boost to the overall economy.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 25 2012, 03:36 PM
AVFAN
post Feb 26 2012, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(pjguy @ Feb 26 2012, 09:43 AM)
for this case, in order to let the bank to approve 400k home loan (home price = 440k), the fresh grad must not have any other heavy burden such car loan and study loan. if not, this application would not be approved, and also means dat this would not cause bubble to happen coz the applicant not able to buy the house/meet the requirement.

if the applier does not has any other heavy burden and the bank loan approved, let us calculate is this fresh grad able to survive:

2800 - 300(kwsp+income tax) - 1772(home loan) - 200(insurans) - 200(daily meals) - 200(family) = 128(great num for saving)

bear in mind this is income for a fresh grad. after 1 year working, income would increase. somemore got bonus...

bear in mind 440k house can buy a very decent condo liao. dats y we see many recent condo launching all kena sapu...

so u think this group of young generation will cause bubble in future? i dun think so...
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test yrself with this question - with monthly salary 2.8k now and not paying for any car or house loan, are you saving 1772+128=1900 per month? are you really living on 600 a month??

whille yr salary and bonus can incr, your other expenses will rise twice as fast. you need money to pay medical bills for yr parents, maint/assessment for yr condo, go for short holidays, pay tnb/astro/maxis, pay for petrol and vehicle maintainence. 3 times more when you have spouse and kids. you can lose yr job and income during a recession.

if you are right, gomen can go fly kite since there is no need for any my1st home at 100-150k and those earning <3k should should whinning and complaining! but you r wrong of course.

young salaried workers should buy their own home only when there is some cash savings, some savings in epf2. life is cruel, you don't always get bailed out by somebody if you fail to consider the contingencies and surprises, incl that about money.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 26 2012, 10:15 AM
AVFAN
post Feb 26 2012, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(pjguy @ Feb 26 2012, 01:18 PM)
this case is just a guideline. each person has their own different expenses of course. what u had mentioned have spouse n kids, recession bla bla bla...hello, a fresh grad less than a year working experience will get married n have kids somemore? yes, there r but we r talking majority here.

about the recession, if u worry bout that, then better u keep yr money in the bank n dun buy home forever coz u have no idea recession when to come, but i wonder is bank safe for u to keep the money?

seriously gomen should spend their money wisely...what does 1st home really reflect i think most ppl know the reason but supprisingly u think that because income<3k not affort to buy a better home and our gomen is son kind to help u hor.

some ppl spend a lot in life n not willing to spend money to buy a house. but some will buy a house first, then expenses come next. some ppl even need to be "forced" to pay the loan and cut off the unnecessary expenses. my brother is a person who do not know how to save money, but once he bought his car, everyone think that he not able to pay for the car coz his expenses is too much. tell u until now he has no problem to pay for the car loan. what does it reflect?
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man, you gave a specific example to demonstrate 2.8k salary can pay for 400k house loan when clearly you can't. now you say "guideline"?? speechless. tongue.gif

QUOTE(pjguy @ Feb 26 2012, 09:43 AM)
2800 - 300(kwsp+income tax) - 1772(home loan) - 200(insurans) - 200(daily meals) - 200(family) = 128(great num for saving)


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 26 2012, 01:45 PM
AVFAN
post Feb 26 2012, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(pjguy @ Feb 26 2012, 02:05 PM)
so r u saying the calculation i mean is to apply to everyone? obviously it is my own calculation n it vary from one to another. when we talk bout expenses, it is so subjective n would be different from one another. the example that i listed out is clearly IT CAN BE DONE, but only for those who agree the calculation can be done. for those who not agree n claimed they need to spend this n that, i wish u good luck.

pls take note that im have no mean to debate with u here(mean i talk not because want to win u), but wanna share what is in my thought as well as my own experience. but when i see yr sentence here "man, you gave a specific example to demonstrate 2.8k salary can pay for 400k house loan when clearly you can't. now you say "guideline"?? ", i know u wanna debate with me.

*debating would not benefiting and it might lead to confusion, but sharing/discussion would give more understanding to all..
*
no, no more debate from me on that, all clear. let others comment.

i wish you good luck too. cheers.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 26 2012, 03:19 PM
AVFAN
post Feb 29 2012, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Feb 29 2012, 08:46 PM)
mebbe this is reno to 1.5 storey leh? biggrin.gif i remember just last year visit fren's DSL in rahim kajai area, i think 23X75...was around 700K+

double storey, no la... 22x85/90 already 1mil or thereabout.

that 828k for single storey is asking price la... fishing for fat fish. 750k, can sell.
or wait 2 yrs if the upupup people are right.

hear taman tun suffers from one problem, hope they will deal nicely - lots of breakins even daytime, majority residents dunwan pay for security service.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 29 2012, 09:49 PM

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