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 Gold investment corner v4, Will gold price achieve USD2000 by 2012?

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doraemonkiller
post Nov 23 2011, 11:28 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 23 2011, 06:27 PM)
Then you need to see why want to buy gold in the first place.
Majority people want to buy gold so that they can gain money, want to have some inflation hedge etc.

All are about to gain money, so to gain money, the one has lower spread, lower risk is the one preferred.

Unless one really like the gold, want to see the yellow shining metal, want to own and hold the yellow metal, then yes, go for physical.

So you want to buy at Rm208 which the real value is RM17x (buyback), in the process to gain money?

Physical price is based on paper price, this is a fact.
*
A lot of lowyat-ers does not know that there is 0% interest 12 mths instalment for physical golds at Poh Kong. If you expect the gold price increase 20% per year, then the real value of the gold bar should add another 10% (month 6-7) only if you use instalment method. You are paying old price when the value is increasing. So the dispersion is actually around 1.5%.
If you want to pay lump sum then go for bank. Just to let you know when the government end up like Iceland, don't expect the bank have the cash flow to pay you money.


Added on November 23, 2011, 11:32 pm
QUOTE(ccc8910 @ Nov 23 2011, 05:21 PM)
they r selling at RCP RM208/g...i just finished reading another topic of discussion about Genneva which offer the similiar scheme....too much doubts and risks...hence i decided to pull off and start doing my survey to buying gold from banks, even maybe with lower return but with lower risks as well...better safe than sorry  smile.gif

thx guys for all the useful reply  rclxms.gif
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Genneva offer RM220 when Poh Kong and Tomei offer RM200. Don't compare the Genneva with other gold shops. Genneva will have cash flow problem when economic situation turn better since they are paying interest rate. No one will invest their golds one day.

This post has been edited by doraemonkiller: Nov 23 2011, 11:32 PM
doraemonkiller
post Jan 16 2012, 12:27 AM

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QUOTE(.O. @ Jan 14 2012, 12:34 PM)
got email reply back from genneva:
u sure u're not interested? brows.gif  laugh.gif
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Not attractive at all.
First their gold price is too high compare with bank and goldsmith shops.
Nowdays, gold price increase like 20% per year and their Hibah is lower than 10% per year because when you sell back your gold bar to them you will only able to take back the price you paid. If you sell to goldsmith shop you lose at least 40% of the price you paid for that gold bar.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 19 2012, 11:02 PM

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QUOTE(mistyworld1929 @ Jan 19 2012, 08:53 PM)
what is the reason that you guys think the gold will be increasing in chinese new year?
From my point of view, gold is not a good investment in 2012. A lot of people keep talking about the difference of currency and gold, the fiat money keep decreasing its value as federal government keep printing the money, cause the inflation rise, and thus rise for the demand of gold for risk aversion. i attended a talk, is about invest in gold, they are selling coins or some kind of agent or middlemen i have no idea, just i think their talks dont have too many statistics and facts, they even played a video which is solely on prediction, the video is about " the crush in the financial market, US dollar no longer been used by people, only gold and silver are the global monetary reserve and the only trusted money, the gold price hits more than $5000/ounce, everyone is panic, and so on." yeahhh, it is possible the scenario in the video happens, i dont know how likely the occurrence of the consequences, but if really wants to educate the potential investors, these kind of videos shouldnt be played, as it is not real, and is like too much exaggerate. i think all the potential investors need to see the historical data, the statistics, and use these specific information to analyze for them, and perhaps make some prediction.

structure of demand shift from east to west, global market share of north america was 68% in 1980, and only 27% in 2010. indian sub continent and east asia, was only 35% in 1970 to 58% in 2010. so, we no longer can ignore the market of asia if we want to analyze in gold. in addition, the distribution of gold demand in 2000 were jewellery (more than 80%), INVESTMENT demand (about 5%), and technology demand (less than 14%). however, in 2010, changes in INVESTMENT demand is from 5% to more than 35%. So in this case we should not only look at the demand of jewellery like how other people did in the past, nowadays, we need to take demand of jewellery and investment into account as well. For the point of demand of jewellery, who is the biggest buyer of jewellery. Indian sub continent and East asia constitute more than 65% in the world in 2010. So, guys, what do you think the economics outlook of india and Asia countries? perhaps you can do some research on your own to figure out the prospects of the purchasing power of asian in 2012. The smallest factor is industrial demand, which you guys could take into account together with the result from your research about the purchasing power of consumers.

There are so many factors that could affect the price of gold, like central bank agreement gold, hedge fund, etf, liquidity of gold, and so on. i cant really go into every parts in very detail. i will try to explain to you guys what is in my mind about the price of gold right now in a more simple fashion.

there is a wave of gold profit taking from 2011 third quarter, and wave of buying US dollar from 3rd quarter. the price of gold is about $1650, but the economics condition in europe is worsening. Is this a safe heaven asset? i have no idea, as it is positively correlated with the euro. whenever the drop in euro, cause the dropping in gold price too. for the point of inflation, do you think the inflation is gonna surging in the near future? with the outlook of economics, with the behavior of central banks, LTRO by ecb, bond purchase programs in other major countries' central banks, and according to lot of economist predictions, i dont think the inflation is a serious problem. maybe some of the people might claim the higher fuel price, whats happening in iran and persian hormuz, perhaps you can do your own research or look for the thread in this forum about iran sanctions, to know more about the issue, for my opinion, the loss is enormous if the continue surging in the price of crude. no one wants to see that happens. The imf is the 3rd largest gold holder in the world just right after US and germany, imf refused to sign the central bank gold agreement 3rd version, and they have a new income model scheme, if you understand what i am talking about, you might think this is a threat to gold price too.

anyway, i just attended the talk yesterday, there are lot of people are wanting to invest in gold and gold coins, right after the talk. please do more research on your own.
*
may i know which company organise the talk?

doraemonkiller
post Jan 21 2012, 12:49 AM

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Correct me if I am wrong

The difference between Goldsmith shops and banks

Goldsmith Shop
Poh Kong:
Selling and buying back price is higher compare with banks. So do not compare the price but the percentage of deduction. (You all failed your maths!)
Deduction for trade in golds is within 5% and cash within 12%. (the best among competitors I believe. Swiss gold is useless because you are not carrying it around the world. Swiss gold have no interest free instalment, high deduction and there is workmanship)
Installment: 0% interest free for 12 months
If you use 1 year ezypayment instalment method and expect gold price increase by 20% per year, the deduction for trade in cash should be 11.5% - 10% = 1.5%. The 10% is the average of increment at the middle of year. You are paying the old price when the actual price is increasing time to time.

I think I does not need to explain much for the bank offer.
In economic recession, bank will face cash flow issue and have the possibility that not paying your investment. It is same like what US and Europe countries facing now. This is why Iceland 'bankrupt' and everyone cannot cash out their investment. To diversify and minimize your risk, it is good not to pool your money in an entity but many entity. That is why I always recommend people to invest on physical golds besides the paper money. Goldsmith shops like Poh Kong are not in the lending money business like bank, EPF and insurance companies. That's why their risk is lower while the risk for bank is getting higher when economic is getting difficult.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 21 2012, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(CoupD'Etat @ Jan 21 2012, 01:15 PM)
U r referring to goldsmith or gold shop as poh kong?
goldsmith sure highest rate. They do not deduct the cut throat percentage like retail gold shop does. They just collect purify labour fee only.
they even collect gold dust.

Try avoid those gray colour gold shops. they deduct a lot if you take cash. even go to 50% of the market price. and they will told u fairy tales why u need to loss so much % . if u really want to do it, you may try the well-known and old establish gold shop @ bangkok bank. they do real business for long term.
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Goldsmith shop is the gold shop like what you refer. 50% deduction apply only when you buy it from a company and sell it off to another company. Which they want to earn profit from trade in because they will not accept the golds which belong to another company with no profits. Goldsmith shops like Poh Kong and Tomei has join goldsmith association, all trade in have to be melt instead of polishing it and put back to the showcase like what private company did.
The above deduction provided by you does not apply to gold bar.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 26 2012, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(desmond_fantasy @ Jan 26 2012, 10:53 AM)
Jewelery shops mark up the price higher than bank...if you want physical gold, can try bank or other providers also.
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Jewellery shop do offer gold bar which the selling and buy back price is higher than bank. Do provide the right info dude. paper gold have the risk that the bank might wind up due to the cash flow issue.
Everyone company have their own risk
doraemonkiller
post Jan 27 2012, 02:20 AM

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QUOTE(Trans_Fires @ Jan 26 2012, 11:29 PM)
Can recommend me good jewellery shop to buy pure gold? Afraid getting scam or higher price than standard price.
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If you are not travelling around the world then get Poh Kong Gold Bar. No workmanship for 20 grams and above. Deduction should be the lowest among competitors like Tomei. free interest installment for 12 months which means you are paying the old price.

If you travel a lot and Malaysia is not a location that you will stay in the very soon future, then go for Tomei Swiss Pamp gold bar. No free ezypayment. Workmanship apply for every size.


QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 27 2012, 12:15 AM)
Selling at RM200, but offer to buy back at RM180, (this buy back generally may only valid from the entity sold to you, but outside real market price may be around RM160-170)
vs
bank selling at RM170, buy back at RM168.

hmmm, which one is better?
It is up to individual opinion, I won't comment which one is better.

Banks wind up due to cash flow problem?
Yes, it can by 2 possibility, interbank credit freeze up (like 2008) + central bank refuse as last lending resort (never happen)
This risk, yes, do exist, but very very minimal, chance even less than plane crash, titanic sink.
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The outcome always so sudden and beyond our expectation. We know that Malaysia current government does not apply good governance.
For me, I will invest on both to diversify and minimise the risk as low as possible.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 27 2012, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 27 2012, 09:30 AM)
Are you working for Tomei or Poh Kong?

To buy gold bars such as Pamp bars from them jewellers is to be SUCKered...paying excessive premiums for the bar at jewellery rates.

A few pages back someone bought at Rm6200 for a Pamp bar which he could have got below Rm5800 else where
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Read my previous comments. We care about spread, risk, benefits. Like what I said buying and selling price in jewellery shop is higher compare with bank. if you say selling price is so high from gold shop. Buying price is the same too.
Some of you do not have any ideas why investors invest on paper gold from bank and gold bar from jewellery shop.
Example:
UOB spread 2%
Poh Kong spread 12%. The good thing is you could predict the future gold price easily when the gold price in the bank had changed around 5% within few hours but Gold shop unable to update on the same day.
This happened and a lot of opportunistic investor take this advantage. Example, the gold price had increase 5% from 2pm-4pm today in the bank. Poh Kong gold price did not change so the spread from 12% reduce to 7%. I went to Poh Kong and get a gold bar since I predict the gold price will increase 5% tomorrow. I also use 12 months interest free installment method. I predict that the gold price will increase 20% per year according to the history gold price chart. so 7% - 10% = -3%. I paying less for a future value of 10% increase. (10% for half of the year, always use middle rate)
We sell it when we know that gold price drop at the second day. Can be predict from the bank rate. Ofcoz people always keep for long term investment.

This post has been edited by doraemonkiller: Jan 27 2012, 01:03 PM
doraemonkiller
post Jan 27 2012, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 27 2012, 01:18 PM)
Last time i popped into Tomei to check out their gold bar prices, twas 25% above what i would be able to purchase for........i asked th shop assistnat if anyone bought at such exhorbitant prices. She smiled and said YES.

I supposed she was right since someone bought at Rm6200 when could be gotten for less than Rm5800.

Remembered she tried to sucker me into thinking that the Pamp Dragon was a limited edition!
Could have sued her for that!  mad.gif
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pam dragon is not for investment purpose la dear...

QUOTE(potenza10 @ Jan 27 2012, 01:13 PM)
Are u sure their spread is around 12% for goldbar?

If their rate for 999 goldbar is rm200, so the buyback will remain -12% with no effect of current spot price. Their spread will based on their selling price, right? If u refer to bank's rate and it drop around 5%, how come u minus 5% from poh kong rate? Haiyaaaaa...
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Since the dispersion is positive, when gold price increase it will be minus... Try to learn finance.


Guys, don't always con by the selling price. Check the buy back price too, the risk, and benefits. If you are rich enough then you can pay lump sum for UOB gold account. If you are risk taker then invest all your money in the bank.
Like what I said, never invest all your shit in a single entity. You should know the lesson of Iceland, US insurance issue, Hong Kong investment bank issue, blah blah.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 28 2012, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 28 2012, 09:37 AM)
Oh my mis.......issit for admiration or somethin else?   tongue.gif   dear..............
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that 1 is for dragon year collection.


Added on January 28, 2012, 11:10 pm
QUOTE(CoupD'Etat @ Jan 28 2012, 02:14 PM)
LoL. Y buy gold bar from them?

U know where they bought the gold from ?
They buy from bank.

FYI, public bank @ ss14 do selling gold bar/brick .
some consolidated gold chain stores do buy from them. biggrin.gif
*
this is so wrong... unless u want 1kg only they will get from bank.

This post has been edited by doraemonkiller: Jan 28 2012, 11:10 PM
doraemonkiller
post Jan 29 2012, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 29 2012, 09:33 AM)
Its not a limited edition. Its not a numis coin.  Its a gold Pamp bar like the norm....dear   biggrin.gif
And getting fleeced for 25% for a gold BAR is not very nice......

Did you get yours at Tomei, Habib or PK?   biggrin.gif

*
If 25 deduction that item is not for investment but collection. PK also have la bro...
Who say Dragon Pam is for investment?


Added on January 29, 2012, 10:41 amJewellery shop 999 gold price has maintain the same for more than 1 month. I believe Monday the price will increase like 10-15 ringgit at least. (they can't change the price on Sat and Sunday)
Although there is 12% dispersion but since the bank gold price had changed. Unable to buy it in old price. Thats why dispersion of 12% no longer 12% if you know that the price will shoot up.

This post has been edited by doraemonkiller: Jan 29 2012, 10:41 AM
doraemonkiller
post Jan 29 2012, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 29 2012, 02:28 PM)
Dear, do you understand the difference between numis coins and bars?
Just cos you paid 25% more at the jewellers does not make it numis.

The Pamp Dragon is no different from the Fortuna BARS...

Further more you can get it cheaper else where..................WHY would you wanna
pay at a highr price at the jewellers?  biggrin.gif
When did I said about numis? Don't let me keep repeat my mesg until I vomit blood.
I never ask people to invest on pam dragon because not worth it at all. Why do u keep relate pamp dragon to investment?

Like what I said, PK gold bar and Tomei pamp swiss deduction is different with normal jewellery. Although their selling price is higher but the buy back price also higher. We always look at their dispersion in terms of percentage. Just like different bank have different rate and different dispersion percentage. If you still can't understand please just skip it and stop making fool of yourself.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 30 2012, 12:41 AM

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QUOTE(potenza10 @ Jan 30 2012, 12:16 AM)
How much deduction if sell back pamp dragon to them?
*
Not sure but prophetjul said it is 25%. Same like the normal jewellery.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 30 2012, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 30 2012, 07:32 AM)
First of all YOU are the one to recommend ppl to buy Pamp bars from jewellers which is sillly as i have
pointed out
Next later in response to me you said
Dear.......

There are only two specs as far as investment in Pms are concerned, ie bullions and numis
If pamp dragon is a bar, it cannot be numis.
If you buy a bar and its not for investment, whats it for?

NOW

you say
It appears you are not even sure of the spread of buy/sell of the pamp bars by the jewellers!
Are you trying very hard to pay a premium of 25%?

IF SO, i will gladly sell my pamp bars to YOU for a premium of 20% above spot.......deal Dear?  biggrin.gif
How many do you want?
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Seriously. Do you know the difference of pamp swiss and pamp dragon. I never heard about pamp dragon until you mention it. Since you said pamp dragon trade in deduction is 25 percent it will be same like normal jewellery which it has to be melted after trade in. For pamp swiss and PK gold bar, it does not go through this process. That is why the deduction is lower.
If you buy the dragon pamp for investment then don't whine too much becoz of your stupidity. Whatever it call pamp, numis or bar, you have to look on their dispersion, risk and benefit.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 30 2012, 01:08 PM

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Did I recommend this dragon pamp to anyone? You are the 1 who started this. You keep insist this item instead of the common pamp swiss. If the deduction is 25 percent (I not sure whether u get the right info), it will be more like collection instead of investment. If you are rich enough, you want pamp rabbit, pamp snake also can.
doraemonkiller
post Jan 30 2012, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 30 2012, 01:41 PM)
Why are you so worked up about the pamp dragon?

The prices for the common pamp fortuna at the jewellers are ALSO over the top.
Last time in asked it was like 25%.
So why do you wanna pay for that?

The point of all this is NEVER BUY GOLD BARS FROM JEWELLERS (which YOU recommended in a post)
because of the price.

Theres no pamp rabbit, pamp snake ...........   whistling.gif


Added on January 30, 2012, 1:53 pmToday (145pm) the Fgjam gold price is RM198p gram
Thats translates into Rm6148p oz.

i can get the same for Rm5436.

Thats 13% lower..looks like its cheaper than the last time i asked.

Anyway you can get the same pamp fortuna at UOB at Rm5633 presently.....if stocks are avail.............


Added on January 30, 2012, 1:55 pmOr 1stopgold(disclaimer:i dont own this company)

selling at Rm176 p gram
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LMAO, I recommend PAMP swiss and PK gold bar instead of pamp dragon. When did I recommend Pamp dragon which have 25 deduction for trade in? If you want to compare selling price then please do compare buying back price for PK gold bar and Pamp swiss. Else don't show your stupidity here. Try to learn how to use dispersion percentage. Try how to include the cost of risk for every industry. Which industry will turn worse (higher risk) when economic facing recession issue.
I just asking everyone to diversify their investment instead of pooling all money to a single entity. This is to minimise their risk. I not the owner of bank nor jewellery shop but telling you the additional options for investment. If you do not know the picture of finance please just skip this and go do whatever you like.


Added on January 30, 2012, 3:09 pm
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 30 2012, 02:59 PM)
Not sure what you can do with the jewellery....try gold smelters?

What coin is that? Why do you think its worth >10k?
*
you can try ebay. Just to let you know bank will not accept trade in for gold or cash.
If you want to get lowest deduction for the coin, you can trade the coin for PK gold bar which will go through 25% deduction (might be near to the rate given by the bank) then only trade it for cash with approximately 12% deduction. If you direct trade in at private gold smith shop, you will lose 40-50% of the gold smith shop price or 30% of the bank rate. No company will accept the coin without profits or FOC.

EDIT: If you do keep the receipt, you can sell it back the to the company where you bought from for lowest deduction.

This post has been edited by doraemonkiller: Jan 30 2012, 03:18 PM
doraemonkiller
post Jan 31 2012, 12:45 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jan 30 2012, 09:53 PM)
Dont be a silly ass........

already told you pamp fortuna of dragon, its the same.
Whatever you tout , the idea is DONT BUY GOLD BARS FROM JEWELLERS.

YOU ASKED THE PERSON FEW PAGES BACK TO BUY PAMP BARS FROM JEWELLERS, SPECIFICALLY TOMEI.
DO YOU WANT ME TO POST THAT POST TO REMIND YOU?  HERE YOU GO.......
ONly stoopid suckers like you advise such ............... 

Especially when  a few of us has SHown you that you can get pamp bars cheaper, just not at jewellers

OR ARE YOU TOO THICK TO COMPREHEND?


Added on January 30, 2012, 9:58 pm
i know that. i am just asking the poster why he thinks its worth that much.
100 years means nothing if the mintage is high or its in poor condition.
i have coins minted in 2009 worth in excess of Rm10k.....

This fella in its complete set is worth around USD2900

user posted image

If its grading is MS70, it will fetch USD3700    biggrin.gif
*
I was answering a question of someone who look for a gold bar from jewellery shop, this is the comparison for both company. You only took part of the quote and give such stupid statement. No one stop you from buying gold from whichever company you want. IT IS THEIR OR OUR CHOICE.
Your face so thick until can keep on twisting my words. Good luck on your misleading. Will not entertain a fool like you anymore.

This post has been edited by doraemonkiller: Jan 31 2012, 01:02 AM
doraemonkiller
post Jan 31 2012, 08:31 AM

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Yah, Don't buy gold from every banks too except UOB. Grow up dude, your judgement only based on selling price and the lowest dispersion. You have no picture on finance at all and you are giving stupid statements all the way in this thread. Keep on your defame dude.


Added on January 31, 2012, 8:41 amGuys, get the info directly from the bank or public listed jewellery shop (not small private co). There is a fool who provide false info all the way here. I myself working in the jewellery industry and know the adv and cons of both industry bank and jeweller. Sick of someone who cannot understand the so called 'risk' or the cost that we can't see. If you are newbie or not opportunistic person, then go for UOB, thats the easiest way to get the lowest dispersion. Dispersion for jewellery shop does not calculate the same way like bank because the price does not change every hours.
Good luck

This post has been edited by doraemonkiller: Jan 31 2012, 08:41 AM
doraemonkiller
post Jan 31 2012, 02:19 PM

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Already check with Tomei today. The dragon pamp sell back deduction is 10-13 percents.
doraemonkiller
post Feb 25 2012, 12:22 AM

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QUOTE(gobindpal @ Feb 23 2012, 10:52 PM)
Hi
can anyone let me where i can sell my old gold jewelry at good prices as trade in or sell to jewelers is very low price
thanks
*
You can trade in for gold bar from Poh Kong and then trade in for cash. (only apply when you don't have the goldsmith shop receipt) Overall deduction around 33% from current goldsmith shop price (current price higher than bank). If you directly trade in for cash with private company, you probably lose 50%.

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