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 Silver as investment V2, Don't cry, buy now.

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Kokolat
post Feb 3 2012, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(Certus @ Feb 3 2012, 03:46 PM)
Hello Everyone,

I came across this thread a month ago and have been following it since and wanted to offer my 2 cents worth.  The very first thing I do when I buy is think about selling.  I cannot stress this enough.  I have been dealing with metals for ten years from futures, equities to the most important- physical.  My suggestion is to always know how you will sell.  Ask yourself the question  what will be the easiest to liquidate?  I firmly believe we have 5-10 years to go with the metals, but I am not married to them.  There will come a time when I will liquidate all of my metals for another asset- most likely it will be real estate but we shall see.  In the mean time we are in for a vicious ride that will attempt to throw us off at every opportunity.

I try to buy after every major flush down.  These are usually spaced every 1-1.5 years and are usually proceeded by pushes to new highs with at least three consecutive down days.  That is the time to load up.  I have been dealing in currencies and metals for so many years and nothing has changed and believe we will hit a minimum of $5000 gold and $120 silver.  I am looking for at least a 1:16 ratio of gold to silver before this is all finished.  That is the historical ratio of gold to silver and also the ratio that is found in the earth's crust.  My suggestion is to buy silver on all major pull backs and to source many places to sell. 

Don't be locked into one GBB spot.  That is too limiting!  Think global like NZ, Australia, Singapore, China and the US.  Your goal is to acquire this valuable asset of silver and to always remember that the world will beat down your door to get it.
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Support.

Think big, think long term and think globally is the key.

Unfortunately some people here will start jumping up and down and calling people "noob" when newly registered member talk about kilo-bars and 100oz-bars...

Kokolat
post Feb 17 2012, 01:57 PM

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15 February 2012 Commodities Daily Report

Focus: Silver needs China to destock before it rallies

Focus: As long as China does not import silver, the price is unlikely to rally on a sustainable basis. However, should imports stay low for a few months and stock levels deplete, we do believe that China will have to come back and restock. This, we believe could provide enough support for the metal to push pricaes above $35, towards $40.

Focus: Silver needs China to destock before it can rally

Two key growth areas for silver demand have been industrial applications and investment demand. While we expect investment demand to remain in place in 2012 (mainly on the back of low real interest rates), silver needs strong fabrication demand to push the price higher.

We expect fabrication demand to grow by 3% in 2012. Most of this growth should come from electronics and photovoltaic demand. In terms of regions, as with other metals, we expect industrial demand to grow strong in China, Japan (mainly due to poor 2011) and other EM. We expect total fabrication demand to reach 16,803K mt in 2012 — a 3% increase on 2011.

We believe that China’s fabrication demand (industrial, photography, jewellery, silverware) is set to grow 7.5%, to 4,940mt. At the same time, China mine supply may only grow by 7%, still leaving a supply gap of 1,443mt in 2012.

Much of the tightness in the silver market since 2008 has come from China flipping from a net exporter to a net importer of silver. Between 2008 and 2011 China imported a total of 7,319mt of silver.

China can fill their fabrication demand gap by either importing metal once again or drawing down existing stockpiles. Indications are that China is drawing down silver stockpiles. This is evident from the sharp decline in SGE silver premiums in recent months (from around $4/oz — $5/oz when silver was trading above $40 to less than $0.50/oz recently). This is also evident in the decline of Chinese net imports of silver.

As long as China does not import silver, the price is unlikely torally on a sustainable basis. However, should imports stay low for a few months and stock levels deplete, we do believe that China will have to come back and restock. This, we believe could provide enough support for the metal to push prices above $35, towards $40. We doubt silver could trade above $35/oz this quarter, but we do look for a push above this level, and to test $40/oz towards Q3:11.

Original source: http://www.kitco.com/scripts/commentary/fr...d_feb152012.pdf
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16 February 2012 Commodities Daily Report

Focus: Silver needs China to destock (part 2)

Focus: Silver needs China to destock (Part 2) - Yesterday, we said China would need to destock first before silver can move above $35/oz on a sustainable basis (see the Focus section in our Commodities Daily dated 15 February 2012). The question is: how much must China destock before prices can rise on a sustainable basis?

Focus: Silver needs China to destock (Part 2)

Yesterday, we said China would need to destock first before silver can move above $35/oz on a sustainable basis (see the Focus section in our Commodities Daily dated 15 February 2012). We also said that China was already destocking, as evidenced by declining silver imports.

However, while we expect fabrication demand in China to grow by 7.5% in 2012, demand for silver is not very strong at the moment. This is evident in the SGE premiums which are relatively low, at under $0.50/oz.

The question is: how much must China destock before prices can rise on a sustainable basis? We estimate that aboveground stock for silver was at 35,560mt at the end of 2011. These stockpiles have been rising steadily from 24,100mt in 2008, reaching a high of 36,958mt in 2010, before falling marginally last year.

Physically-backed ETFs hold the largest portion of these stockpiles, with 17,440mt at the end of 2011. More importantly, China has rapidly increased its above-ground stockpiles. We use fabrication demand, mine supply and net import figures to estimate the above-ground stock of silver in China. Currently, we estimate China has 6,129mt of silver stock. Much of this may be investment-type inventory. The current above-ground stock in China is equal to 15 months of fabrication demand. This inventory is up from only 12 months of fabrication demand in 2011. As a result, we believe that China’s inventory needs to decline to at least 10-12 months of fabrication demand in order for demand-pull pressure to build. Until then, we expect silver rallies to fade above $35/oz.

Therefore, as mentioned yesterday, we doubt silver could trade above $35/oz this quarter but we do look for a push above this level, and to test $40/oz towards Q3:11. We believe that by then, China’s inventory may be at levels where imports need to increase. We would look closely for a pick-up in SGE premiums domestic tightness in China’s silver market building.

Original source: http://www.kitco.com/scripts/commentary/fr...ruary162012.pdf
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Good news? tongue.gif
Kokolat
post Feb 29 2012, 11:53 AM

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Anyone from Kelantan? I want to ask if Kalantan people are using Dinar and Dirham in daily transactions?
Kokolat
post Mar 4 2012, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(soundsyst64 @ Mar 4 2012, 08:54 AM)
Kelantanese still using fiat money (ringgit) in daily transactions.

Only some start to practice selling/buying in dinar/dirham, but still accepts fiat.
Some of businesses that accepts dinar/dirham....

Source - http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=220...&type=1&theater
user posted image

Source - http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=220...&type=1&theater
user posted image
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Thanks bro... rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
Kokolat
post Mar 6 2012, 11:32 AM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Mar 5 2012, 01:57 PM)
they accept but at what price?
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Sorry, no idea because I am not from Kelantan... blush.gif They trade it at the face value I guess?

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