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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V99, Don't miss out buying time

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mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 02:47 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Sep 30 2011, 02:20 PM)
I predict KLCI will either go up or go down.  laugh.gif
*
thumbup.gif thumbup.gif
you're the man! notworthy.gif
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 02:53 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(othme @ Sep 30 2011, 02:51 PM)
Heard quite reliable source that PNB already kacau kacau the Setia management team.
IMO, they would run the company like their Ah Kong company.
Later give the projects to their own cronies companies who just take money but don't work.

Haizzz.....so sad  cry.gif  cry.gif
*
LOL.. sounds like the virus is infecting SPS... next target will be Mahsing~~ tongue.gif

Added on
after yesterday's US data... which are mostly better than expected.. i'm lost already..
dunno whether to bear or bull... atm still sideline and keep bullet for lower KLCI.. sad.gif

2 more weeks to US Q3 earnings season...

This post has been edited by mopster: Sep 30 2011, 02:56 PM
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 03:12 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Sep 30 2011, 03:06 PM)
laugh.gif I read the Nanyang Chinese Newspaper said that the 30% bumi share holding term wanna dispose, real or not?
*
ah jib gor has been talking about mkt liberalization since 2 years ago... i havent seen any changes or have i missed out the important news ?
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 03:54 PM

m o p p y
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the OSK + RHB thingy, we're not sure how it will be carried out, right ?
i) share swap like sunrise + uemland ?
ii) disposal of OSK Investment Banking Group to RHB ?

and the annoucement says "possible merger of OSK Investment Banking Group..", not entire OSKH so the NAV may not be that high.

also, what could be the listing status of OSK after the disposal ? possible distribution of special dividend ?

err sorry i'm asking too many unknwon questions... tongue.gif
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 04:10 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 30 2011, 03:57 PM)
LOL, they start want to talk about details only lah.

Not yet conclusive, nor the merger must/can take place. Remember MRCB - IJM talk previously? 

You are asking question that has no answer yet.  biggrin.gif


Added on September 30, 2011, 3:58 pm

Who said the plunge now is completed or ended already?  tongue.gif

Ain't we see people talk about cut loss on Monday?
No offence.  smile.gif
*
tongue.gif yah... typical ikan bilis over excited by the news...
--
haha, i goreng the ijm-mrcb a little.. managed to escape with some kfc... sweat.gif
then no ballz to buy maybank-rhb or cimb-rhb liao..

now need to be even more careful with rhb-osk because mkt sentiment..
Personal opinion is I doubt Ong Leong Huat would wanna dispose his IB Group, unless he wants to retire for good. OSKIB is the core of OSKH (iirc)
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 04:15 PM

m o p p y
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wahh dialog boss buying ? i sapport u!!! <3<3 wub.gif
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(GregPG01 @ Sep 30 2011, 04:32 PM)
one thing about bernas .... there is no change to the fundamentals for the past 2 years ... the revenue, profit , dividends is the same ... probably the debts too .  hmm.gif  hmm.gif
*
is bernas margins affected by forex fluctuations ?
RM is weak now.. gloves is the first that comes to my mind... tongue.gif
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 04:47 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(protonw @ Sep 30 2011, 04:30 PM)
Ooops, suddenly blink that my Maybank matched??? rclxub.gif
*
LOL.. ur accidental buys always make $$... rclxms.gif notworthy.gif
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 04:52 PM

m o p p y
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KLCI flat... terror ride +10 -> -10 -> 0 ...
future players enjoy the fun...

This post has been edited by mopster: Sep 30 2011, 04:52 PM
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 05:43 PM

m o p p y
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From: Kuala Lumpur


Sunway boss and KJ boss both busy buying their companies' shares using their own pocket money...
but i suffer paper loss on both cry.gif
mopster
post Sep 30 2011, 07:12 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Sep 30 2011, 05:55 PM)
The one you get from Suncity?

If yes then you very loyal  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif
*
hahah the one i get from suncity is still in the black... sweat.gif
recently i blur blur followed Unker Jeff, he buy i buy, then we all died... luckily i added very little sweat.gif doh.gif

KJ if ever <1.60 i'll avg down brows.gif that will be close to 9%DY, low PE, and i think they should be 'relatively' ok in case of a downturn, coz they do packaging for food products, hopefully.. sweat.gif

mopster
post Oct 1 2011, 12:52 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Sep 30 2011, 11:45 PM)
look at all the fear mongering story   laugh.gif my membership for IIVC seems to be rejected for the moment

Wall Street falls as gloomy 3rd quarter ends- AP
Consumer mood improves but worries persist- Reuters
Oil set to end the month down nearly 10%- MarketWatch
U.S. incomes fall for first time in nearly 2 years- AP
Friday’s biggest gaining and declining stocks- MarketWatch
Weak income curbs consumer spending
http://finance.yahoo.com/

“It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI’s Achuthan Says New Recession Unavoidable
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticke...n&asset=&ccode=

Three steps to avoid a global depression: Soros
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Three-steps-...1&asset=&ccode=

if u guys r daytrader & contra kaki, then jus play daily fluctuation & forget long/mid term  cool2.gif
those who hav never got an expensive burning lesson from futures, do go ahead & try it. u will learn so much tat u won't share here with us   nod.gif

remember, earnings season is cuming soon
if the momo overdrove down shares, means got chance up
if the mom underdrove down shares, means sure down

if ur FA analisis kenot match with wat u r seeing now. coz the FA is all old news, due to its reporting last quarter news cerita lama
momo had alredi price in the expected future news, now wait actual earnings. did momo bet correctly? they wait co report on their outlook 
clue, its reflected in TA, if u know how to read TA. see, a wedge is about to be form soon. now momo oso waiting for earnings  rolleyes.gif


[attachmentid=2461627]
*
nod.gif nod.gif thumbup.gif notworthy.gif
they're for company outlook as primary now,...
most analysts say another recession is unlikely, and US data showing slight improvement. EU macro data is still on the -ve side though..

This post has been edited by mopster: Oct 1 2011, 01:08 PM
mopster
post Oct 2 2011, 06:24 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 1 2011, 03:19 PM)
LOL, since when any analysts said it will happen and the economy did?   whistling.gif

Anybody said RE in US will plunge when 2006 time?
When subprime issue emerged time, analysts said it is just a portion, won't affect the prime one, don't worry.
The rest is history.
When RE did crash, many many analysts said, it will recover on 2010 or 2011, now, we are 4th Q of 2011.

When analysts said we were heading to oil USD200, then what happened next?
Oil plunged to USD40.

I would said, if you expect the unexpected, the chance you get right is higher.  tongue.gif
*
oops... blush.gif
was careless for a bit and got charmed by analysts' reports.. sweat.gif
the scary thing is 80% of consensus says no RE.. laugh.gif
-----
Some updates on RHB-OSK deal...

QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 2 — RHB Capital , Malaysia’s fifth largest lender, is expected to offer between 1.9 to 2.2 times the book value for OSK Investment Bank, The Edge financial weekly said citing an unnamed source.

RHB and OSK Holdings said on Thursday they had sought the central bank’s approval to start talks to merge RHB’s banking business with that of OSK Investment Bank.

OSK Investment Bank could fetch RM1.72 billion-RM1.99 billion, based on its estimated book value of about RM906.4 million at end-2010, the paper said.

“It is still too premature for us to comment on valuation at this stage,” RHB Capital managing director Kellee Kam said in response to the report.

“We are still awaiting the central bank’s approval to commence discussions formally.”

The proposed merger comes as Malaysian authorities are encouraging lenders to consolidate to create larger banks that can acquire more regional market share. — Reuters
Soooooo.... let's do some calculations..
OSKH issued shares: 963.6M shares
OSKH NAV: RM1.54ps

OSKIB is worth 900M on book. that means approx RM0.93ps.
OSKH NAV after selling OSKIB: RM1.54-RM0.93 = RM0.61

if RHB offers 1.9x BV means 93c x 1.9 = RM1.767ps.
OSKIB offer price + OSKH remaining assets:
RM1.767 + RM0.61 = RM2.377ps

if RHB offers 2.2x BV means 93c x 2.2 = RM2.046ps.
OSKIB offer price + OSKH remaining assets:
RM2.046 + RM0.61 = RM2.656ps

can pakai ah ?? laugh.gif
Please note:
*Numbers like BV/NAV may be outdated
*The way of calculating can be totally wrong

This post has been edited by mopster: Oct 2 2011, 06:39 PM
mopster
post Oct 3 2011, 10:41 AM

m o p p y
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wow... forum only +4pages today.... sweat.gif
where's everyone... blink.gif

this week is very very heavy with news.... get ready for some wild swings and roller coaster rides...

This post has been edited by mopster: Oct 3 2011, 10:43 AM
mopster
post Oct 3 2011, 11:50 AM

m o p p y
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good thing we have budget this friday.. if not we'll be redder...
mopster
post Oct 3 2011, 11:59 AM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Oct 3 2011, 11:52 AM)
Remember we have ETP announcement and market down like crap? Hahaha
*
yah, when ETP dissappoints. so.. if budget dissappoints too.. we all will know what to expect...

QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Oct 3 2011, 11:54 AM)
After budget, double the red tongue.gif
*
laugh.gif laugh.gif thumbup.gif
mopster
post Oct 3 2011, 12:07 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(fastreader @ Oct 3 2011, 11:52 AM)
budget nex friday la...
*
unsure.gif

QUOTE(yhtan @ Oct 3 2011, 11:53 AM)
this is going to be business-friendly type of budget thumbup.gif
*
hopefully la~~

QUOTE
..KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 30 (Bernama) -- Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun

Razak may announce one or two per cent cut in corporate tax in Budget 2012 in

line with the consensus of tax practitioners in Malaysia, says UHY.


It said the annual budget may also see further policy-level initiatives to

increase attractiveness of Malaysia''s tax regime, both for domestic and

international businesses investing in the country.

"In view of the uncertainties in the US and Europe, Najib may announce tax

proposals that would further spur inter-Asean trade and trade with China to

counter the slow growth brought about by the drop in imports of Malaysian goods

by the US and Europe," it said in a statement today.

Najib, who is also Finance Minister, will table the budget in Parliament on

Oct 7.


UHY is a network of independent accounting and consulting firms, with

offices in nearly 240 major business centres in 78 countries.

Last month, UHY tax professionals studied the tax data in 21 countries

across its international network, including members of the G8 (world''s richest

nations) and key emerging economies.

"Tax professionals in each country calculated post-tax profits for

businesses making annual statutory pre-tax profits of US$100,000, US$1 million

and US$100 million.

"When analysing larger profitable businesses, the same business in Brazil

would pay over a third more in tax (US$34 million) than the equivalent business

in Malaysia (US$25 million)," UHY added.

-- BERNAMA
..

mopster
post Oct 3 2011, 12:29 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Oct 3 2011, 12:15 PM)
We are already on deficit. With cuts sure come other increases, no? if not revenue will keep dropping and we will end up like another greece but who will bail us?

Hike salary of civil servants with a bloated workforce in them. *Shudder*
0354 GMT [Dow Jones] OSK Research says it has no major expectations from Malaysia 2012 budget due Friday, "except that it will probably be people friendly and include no further tightening of regulations with regards to the property sector which should be positive for property stocks." It also says it expects no hike in brewery tax which will be positive for Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia (2836.KU) and Guinness Anchor (3255.KU). The house expects a 4.5%-6.8% hike in tobacco excise duties which will be mildly negative for British American Tobacco Malaysia (4162.KU) and JT International (2615.KU). OSK Research adds that there is also a possibility of a hike in civil servants salary, which will be positive for Malaysia Building Society (1171.KU). (ankur.relia@dowjones.com)
*
priority is GE13.... deficit is secondary... another term means another 4 years to *ahem* tackle deficit.. rolleyes.gif
maybe they follow US... reduce tax to stimulate economy.. laugh.gif good luck on that~
i doubt they will implement m'sia version of "buffet tax" also..
US can print and stay strong.. if we print.. we'll become zimbabwe..
---
aiyoh.. Jcorp will issue 2.5b bonds to refinance debt..
my hope on Jcorp pvt kulim or selling asset is shattered... sleep.gif

This post has been edited by mopster: Oct 3 2011, 12:37 PM
mopster
post Oct 3 2011, 03:54 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 3 2011, 03:41 PM)
TNB is also a good stock to own, except they cannot or powerless to raise the power tariff enough to cover the cost raising.
If not, TNB also a good defensive nature stock.
*
wahh.. if power tariff increase further i will die >_<" cry.gif imo, they should:
~do away with IPP mad.gif
~improve efficiency/management
~then only look at power tariff.. sweat.gif
mopster
post Oct 3 2011, 04:11 PM

m o p p y
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QUOTE(andrewckj @ Oct 3 2011, 04:01 PM)
If do away with IPP, YTLPOWR and Tanjong plc will be unhappy. Lols~ Later, make Tan Sri Yeoh Tiong Lay and Anand Krishnan angry how via their interest in YTLPOWR and Tanjong plc? Later both of them don't want to continue invest in Malaysia, and following Robert Kuao footsteps? Government in dilemma..lols tongue.gif
*
QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 3 2011, 04:07 PM)
IPP model is actually good.

It is like outsourcing, by then you can concentrate more on your core business issue, and less man-power and personnel needed eventually reduce the expenditure as well as potential capex and tedious maintenance issue on power generation.

You buy Rm x from IPP, then sell it at RM Z = x + y(profit+ cost), which is the perfect model of profitable business.

But... the contract....
*
ahhhh... yes, "do away with IPP" maybe too extreme laugh.gif
they should renego with IPP for a more reasonable price.. u help, i help u ma..... tongue.gif
---

btw.. i think today's fall is not entirely on greece report... there was US protest on unemployment over the weekend too.. i think added some salt to the sentiment.. of course Greece is still the main dish... laugh.gif
sigh.. gotta give back last friday's ppg...

Added on
QUOTE(andrewckj @ Oct 3 2011, 04:08 PM)
So in the end, the best solution to save TNB is to have a better management team. MAS also need a better management team. oh well..
*
better mgmt and less vampirism/leeching/parasiting... tongue.gif

This post has been edited by mopster: Oct 3 2011, 04:13 PM

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