QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Apr 18 2012, 06:24 PM)
Hope you close your position by yesterday. If AAPL drop to 550 i will throw everything I have at it and hold for long term as it will hit single digit forward PE at 550 price.
I believe the consolidation period ended yesterday when the stock rise back 5%. I expect a blowout QE next Tuesday therefore there will be more upside till next week.
Analyst consensus EPS is at $9.94/share
Let's play some crystal ball game here. I am prediction AAPL will make 44.342 Billion in revenue.
Sales
4.7 million units of Imac
9.7 million units of ipod
40 million units of iphone
11.8 million units of ipad
Last quarter AAPL has a 28% net profit margin which is mind blogging. I am sticking with 26% which will return a 11.53 Billion of Net profit
Outstanding shares will be around 930million of shares which will bring my estimated EPS to $12.39
Added on April 18, 2012, 6:26 pmBtw, anyone knows any platform that can trade pre market and after hours??
Also any way to buy an IPO? Am considering facebook IPO but depending on the price.
Time to do some post mortem.
Actual AAPL Results for the Quarter 2 2012
Sales 39 Billion
4.012 million of Mac sales
7.67 million of ipod
35 million of iphone
11.79 million of ipad
Net profit 11.6 Billion
EPS 12.30
As you can see, AAPL didnt meet my sales prediction partly due to the shrinking US market. The verizon and AT&T data shows that the iphone activation in US is going down. However this is compensated with the international market.
What surprise me with last quarter result is AAPL margin. AAPL recorded a blowout 47% Gross margin and 29.5% of net margin. This also means that AAPL could record the amount of income and EPS i predicted with a less amount of sales. However i dont think AAPL can achieve this type of margin moving into next quarter due to the Ipad 2 and older iphone versions being offered at a lower price. But think about it, AAPL never fails to impress us everytime with its report, so we might see a surprise.
Looking at the sales prediction, I have over estimated the iphone sales and the ipod sales. ipod went down faster than i expected but that isnt a big concern. I am more concerned with the iphone sales. Next quarter iphone sales might slowdown due to the anticipation of iphone 5.
My previous model was built on the assumption a June release of iphone 5 and a ipanel in Q4 this year. Looking at the slim possibilities, i think chances are slim. Will need to rebuilt my model.
The share price closed yesterday at $610 is still relatively cheap based on the earnings and future growth of AAPL. For long term investors, this will be a good time to buy, it wont be at this level for long. Imagine, if AAPL could hit an all time high of 644, what could it do in the following weeks after investors fully digest last quarter report?
I am predicting a march to $700 within the next month. Until then I shall consider to take some of my profits and probably reallocate part of them to the shares. and gambling the rest on options with a higher strike price. 800 maybe?
Based on the report last quarter a $800 - $900 Year end TP is doable. Let's enjoy the ride up and sit tight!
This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: Apr 26 2012, 01:24 PM