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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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pinkdevil88
post Apr 23 2012, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 21 2012, 12:06 PM)
Pink,
U forget that 99.99% apple trade are done by MM, FM.
Good slide, as fund managers are selling to lock in profit. Yes, nobody can predict TOP or BOTTOM. Its a given, we are not just started to trade here smile.gif

572.98 -14.46 (-2.46%)

Still, i will not by apple at this level because dollar to dollar return is way smaller than others like LVS. Try to compute, say with $3000 cash.
*
I maintain that AAPL intrinsic value is higher than the price traded at the moment and it is just a matter of time when the market realised this value. The market just could not go through the psychological barrier of paying USD570 for one stock.

I am very confident going into earnings day on Tuesday that AAPL will beat market expectations.

Instead of coming here blowing hot air everytime when AAPL takes a dip and go into hiding when AAPL rise in value, why dont you short some AAPL? that would lend some credibility to your allegations against AAPL.

I think you learn something which is called relative return instead of looking at the absolute return. Why $3000 and not $4000 or $5000? To make things simple let's just say we need to look at the Return in terms of percentage.
learn2earn8
post Apr 23 2012, 04:28 PM

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come on zamans98, heat up this fight with short or puts option. the market, cake & apple is on your side

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/ since many news will be out in this few weeks


zamans98
post Apr 23 2012, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Apr 23 2012, 04:03 PM)
I maintain that AAPL intrinsic value is higher than the price traded at the moment and it is just a matter of time when the market realised this value. The market just could not go through the psychological barrier of paying USD570 for one stock.

I am very confident going into earnings day on Tuesday that AAPL will beat market expectations.

Instead of coming here blowing hot air everytime when AAPL takes a dip and go into hiding when AAPL rise in value, why dont you short some AAPL?  that would lend some credibility to your allegations against AAPL.

I think you learn something which is called relative return instead of looking at the absolute return. Why $3000 and not $4000 or $5000? To make things simple let's just say we need to look at the Return in terms of percentage.
*
You are very confident (which is a NO BRAINER, 99% of investors knows), but DO remember that NOT not only GOOD earning what investors (MM) are looking at, but forward projection as well. Price of whatever stock today is "forward projection" of the company, not what it stands as at NOW.

I shorted it via OPTIONS (PUT May) @ 650 last week and its earning NICELY right now. No need to shout whatsoever, the old forumer knows me.

since my cash is super limited, I only took 1 PUT Option, not 3 as I normally do.


Added on April 23, 2012, 6:58 pm
QUOTE(learn2earn8 @ Apr 23 2012, 04:28 PM)
come on zamans98, heat up this fight with short or puts option. the market, cake & apple is on your side

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/ since many news will be out in this few weeks
*
haha, no bro, its not a FIGHT, its a discussion.

Pinkish devil may have some good points so do I. Everyone have different view of a an investment, that's what makes its interesting.

Today I found a piece of news that supporting what I been saying last few discussions.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-2...owth-to-slacken
Those came from head of investment group, that are managing BILLIONS of dollars, not puny investors like us here.

Since 99.9% of trade are done by MM, do listen to them.


This post has been edited by zamans98: Apr 23 2012, 06:58 PM
learn2earn8
post Apr 23 2012, 07:10 PM

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we are here not to ask for proof of records or whatever
but it is highly unethical to state you short or bought last week shakehead.gif
u should just have posted it last week, then it would have been more credible nod.gif

might as well I say and posted now, I also shorted dow and apple on friday just before closing doh.gif
its not shouting or whatsoever, but its more for the newbies to pick up & learn some skills
for the aapl fight, I am with pinkdevil88. but reentry points should be at 50dma, in between them or at 200dma itself

anything below 200dma is a bonus. we'll see how its blowout earnings pit itself against the trend of the market laugh.gif

QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 23 2012, 06:49 PM)
You are very confident (which is a NO BRAINER, 99% of investors knows), but DO remember that NOT not only GOOD earning what investors (MM) are looking at, but forward projection as well. Price of whatever stock today is "forward projection" of the company, not what it stands as at NOW.

I shorted it via OPTIONS (PUT May) @ 650 last week and its earning NICELY right now. No need to shout whatsoever, the old forumer knows me.

since my cash is super limited, I only took 1 PUT Option, not 3 as I normally do.


Added on April 23, 2012, 6:58 pm

haha, no bro, its not a FIGHT, its a discussion.

Pinkish devil may have some good points so do I. Everyone have different view of a an investment, that's what makes its interesting.

Today I found a piece of news that supporting what I been saying last few discussions.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-2...owth-to-slacken
Those came from head of investment group, that are managing BILLIONS of dollars, not puny investors like us here.

Since 99.9% of trade are done by MM, do listen to them.
*
danmooncake
post Apr 24 2012, 12:43 AM

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The shorts are working out nicely!! Oh yeah.. baby.. I love the smell of money. biggrin.gif
zamans98
post Apr 24 2012, 03:47 AM

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QUOTE(learn2earn8 @ Apr 23 2012, 07:10 PM)
we are here not to ask for proof of records or whatever
but it is highly unethical to state you short or bought last week  shakehead.gif
u should just have posted it last week, then it would have been more credible  nod.gif

might as well I say and posted now, I also shorted dow and apple on friday just before closing  doh.gif
its not shouting or whatsoever, but its more for the newbies to pick up & learn some skills
for the aapl fight, I am with pinkdevil88. but reentry points should be at 50dma, in between them or at 200dma itself

anything below 200dma is a bonus. we'll see how its blowout earnings pit itself against the trend of the market  laugh.gif
*
haha, chillax. Apple or orange, its your call, if makes money ain't u going to share with me, a'right?
What I trade I will not share it via screenshot, unless I know the person.

I can share what I have in my portfolio:

DANG - long -best performer
YOKU long
BAC Short
BAC options strike 9.00
Apple Options put 650
MU - LONG worst performer
RENN Long
LVS Long
DELL short


danmooncake
post Apr 24 2012, 02:24 PM

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Zamans - You have made good call for playing DANG! Congrats!
I've been tracking it..but didn't participate. Good volatility indeed.. lots of players. Skynet took notice, now on its auto-trading system. Going to the roof soon. smile.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 24 2012, 02:25 PM
learn2earn8
post Apr 24 2012, 03:49 PM

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My current gambling positions +174% bulls make money, bears make money, only pigs get slaughter icon_idea.gif
disca $2.80 now $4.7 +67%
bwld $7.10 now $5.4 -24%
sxci $10 now $22.6 +126%
lulu $19.20 now $15.2 -20%
dltr $12.16 now $14.7 +20%
tsco $98.50 now $99.41 +0%
hlf $68.74 now $72.69 +5%

zamans98 aapl, bac, dell, mu gonna be a quick swing trade (not suitable for options) to resistance level hmm.gif

aapl $600 can exit. if u shorted, prepared to be shortsqueeze & I just watching the fighting movie between u two
Attached Image

dell $16.75 can exit, maybe I buy shares to gamble up when the market opens
Attached Image

bac $9 can exit, maybe I buy shares to gamble up when the market opens
Attached Image

mu $7.5 can exit, maybe I buy shares to gamble up when the market opens
Attached Image

QUOTE(learn2earn8 @ Apr 21 2012, 11:28 AM)
since dog jones not above 13300, means the bull not yet fully eaten & digest 'medium rare' bear steak
whether cake become crumbs or apple become freshly squeeze juice? it depends how hard the bears work overtime  come on bears  tongue.gif  the majority forumers here support u guys  flex.gif its ok as long as all is making duit  rclxms.gif 

My current gambling positions +222%  rclxm9.gif & not selling for s/t gains. stay tuned as the bears hope it crash  laugh.gif 
disca $2.80 now $4.6 +64%
bwld $7.10 now $6.2 -12%
sxci $10 now $25.9 +159%
lulu $19.20 now $15.8 -18%
dltr $12.16 now $15.1 +24% 
tsco $98.50 now $99.46 +0%
hlf $68.74 now $72.32 +5%

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zamans98
post Apr 24 2012, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(learn2earn8 @ Apr 24 2012, 03:49 PM)


zamans98 aapl, bac, dell, mu gonna be a quick swing trade (not suitable for options) to resistance level  hmm.gif
hey, looks like your gambling portfolio are amazing.

Apple is best to trade Options, very healthy volume and very active. It also can make or break u quickly.

MU, DELL - not recommend for options. Slow.

BAC is also slow but better take the future years OPTIONS, ie in Q1 2013.
For me, I'm looking at BAC $12 by year end.
Right now she's at 8-10$ range.

Will hold onto my APPLE PUT depending on the result. Pre-market down again..
river.sand
post Apr 25 2012, 08:31 AM

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Apple doubles quarterly profits, stock rises 7%...
danmooncake
post Apr 25 2012, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Apr 25 2012, 08:31 AM)
Apple doubles quarterly profits, stock rises 7%...
*
Nice.. time to sell into the pop tonight to lock in some profits. biggrin.gif


learn2earn8
post Apr 25 2012, 12:20 PM

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My current gambling positions +97% shocking.gif no more 100% gain, can't win them all and shit do happens
disca $2.80 now $4.1 +46%
bwld $7.10 now $3.1 -57%
sxci $10 now $22.1 +121%
lulu $19.20 now $14.05 -27% cut loss liao
dltr $12.16 now $14 +15% exited with puny gains
tsco $98.50 now $96.93 -1%
hlf $68.74 now $69.10 +0%
aapl $560 have to hold it a while as a shortsqueeze really can squeeze, maybe exit when sighted next doji
dell $16.18
bac $8.2
mu $6.52

zamans98, have to agree that options are for gambling, but with duit that one is willing to lose
I took up buy swing trades as per your position. but if it tidur for a long time, I will cut it rather than waste time
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl&ql=1 Apple Inc. (AAPL) After Hours: 603.81 Up 43.53 (7.77%)

QUOTE(learn2earn8 @ Apr 24 2012, 03:49 PM)
My current gambling positions +174% bulls make money, bears make money, only pigs get slaughter  icon_idea.gif 
disca $2.80 now $4.7 +67%
bwld $7.10 now $5.4 -24%
sxci $10 now $22.6 +126%
lulu $19.20 now $15.2 -20%
dltr $12.16 now $14.7 +20% 
tsco $98.50 now $99.41 +0%
hlf $68.74 now $72.69 +5%

zamans98 aapl, bac, dell, mu gonna be a quick swing trade (not suitable for options) to resistance level  hmm.gif

aapl $600 can exit. if u shorted, prepared to be shortsqueeze & I just watching the fighting movie between u two
Attached Image

dell $16.75 can exit, maybe I buy shares to gamble up when the market opens
Attached Image

bac $9 can exit, maybe I buy shares to gamble up when the market opens
Attached Image

mu $7.5 can exit, maybe I buy shares to gamble up when the market opens
Attached Image
*
StormZ
post Apr 25 2012, 05:01 PM

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Been trying to read the forum to startup an account for trading in US Stock markets. Some points that i need you guys assistance

1) usually needs W-8BEN (Not sure how to fill up the tax obligation part, the US Tax number and all) form and passport copy

2) need recommendation on which platform to go. The one with best rates for non us-residents + ease of transaction, i.e. withdrawal and such

Please provide you feedback guys.

Thanks
zamans98
post Apr 26 2012, 04:06 AM

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QUOTE(StormZ @ Apr 25 2012, 05:01 PM)
Been trying to read the forum to startup an account for trading in US Stock markets. Some points that i need you guys assistance

1) usually needs W-8BEN (Not sure how to fill up the tax obligation part, the US Tax number and all) form and passport copy

2) need recommendation on which platform to go. The one with best rates for non us-residents + ease of transaction, i.e. withdrawal and such

Please provide you feedback guys.

Thanks
*
i forgot about Q1, but Q2 :

use Just2trade.com in your case. There is no such thing as best rates for NON-US Residences, anyone in the world pays the same smile.gif



pinkdevil88
post Apr 26 2012, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Apr 18 2012, 06:24 PM)
Hope you close your position by yesterday. If AAPL drop to 550 i will throw everything I have at it and hold for long term as it will hit single digit forward PE at 550 price.

I believe the consolidation period ended yesterday when the stock rise back 5%. I expect a blowout QE next Tuesday therefore there will be more upside till next week.

Analyst consensus EPS is at $9.94/share

Let's play some crystal ball game here. I am prediction AAPL will make 44.342 Billion in revenue.

Sales
4.7 million units of Imac
9.7 million units of ipod
40 million units of iphone
11.8 million units of ipad

Last quarter AAPL has a 28% net profit margin which is mind blogging. I am sticking with 26% which will return a 11.53 Billion of Net profit
Outstanding shares will be around 930million of shares which will bring my estimated EPS to $12.39


Added on April 18, 2012, 6:26 pmBtw, anyone knows any platform that can trade pre market and after hours??

Also any way to buy an IPO? Am considering facebook IPO but depending on the price.
*
Time to do some post mortem.

Actual AAPL Results for the Quarter 2 2012

Sales 39 Billion

4.012 million of Mac sales
7.67 million of ipod
35 million of iphone
11.79 million of ipad

Net profit 11.6 Billion
EPS 12.30

As you can see, AAPL didnt meet my sales prediction partly due to the shrinking US market. The verizon and AT&T data shows that the iphone activation in US is going down. However this is compensated with the international market.

What surprise me with last quarter result is AAPL margin. AAPL recorded a blowout 47% Gross margin and 29.5% of net margin. This also means that AAPL could record the amount of income and EPS i predicted with a less amount of sales. However i dont think AAPL can achieve this type of margin moving into next quarter due to the Ipad 2 and older iphone versions being offered at a lower price. But think about it, AAPL never fails to impress us everytime with its report, so we might see a surprise.

Looking at the sales prediction, I have over estimated the iphone sales and the ipod sales. ipod went down faster than i expected but that isnt a big concern. I am more concerned with the iphone sales. Next quarter iphone sales might slowdown due to the anticipation of iphone 5.

My previous model was built on the assumption a June release of iphone 5 and a ipanel in Q4 this year. Looking at the slim possibilities, i think chances are slim. Will need to rebuilt my model.

The share price closed yesterday at $610 is still relatively cheap based on the earnings and future growth of AAPL. For long term investors, this will be a good time to buy, it wont be at this level for long. Imagine, if AAPL could hit an all time high of 644, what could it do in the following weeks after investors fully digest last quarter report?

I am predicting a march to $700 within the next month. Until then I shall consider to take some of my profits and probably reallocate part of them to the shares. and gambling the rest on options with a higher strike price. 800 maybe?

Based on the report last quarter a $800 - $900 Year end TP is doable. Let's enjoy the ride up and sit tight!

This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: Apr 26 2012, 01:24 PM
countdown
post Apr 26 2012, 11:08 PM

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Foreigners like us, capital gain and dividend made from US trading not taxable in US smile.gif?

This post has been edited by countdown: Apr 26 2012, 11:09 PM
zamans98
post Apr 27 2012, 06:54 AM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Apr 26 2012, 11:08 PM)
Foreigners like us, capital gain and dividend made from US trading not taxable in US smile.gif?
*
Dividend is taxable. Most common option is to direct credit your trading account.

why need Div anyway? Its not much, the day range of a stock can make more than the 2-5 years divvy.

example. BAC 0.01x10000 = 100$
Today Range 8.17 - 8.40
Assume enter at 8.20 and sold at 8.30 x 10000 = $1000


countdown
post Apr 27 2012, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 27 2012, 06:54 AM)
Dividend is taxable. Most common option is to direct credit your trading account.

why need Div anyway? Its not much, the day range of a stock can make more than the 2-5 years divvy.

example. BAC 0.01x10000 = 100$
Today Range  8.17 - 8.40
Assume enter at 8.20 and sold at 8.30 x 10000  = $1000
*
thanks for your input. I got caught at 9.53 (330 units) for BAC sad.gif. Still not good at data analysis...newbie....learning smile.gif

This post has been edited by countdown: Apr 27 2012, 12:01 PM
learn2earn8
post Apr 27 2012, 01:54 PM

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I so happy with my performance for year 2012 and its not even june yet wub.gif

My current gambling positions +204% rclxm9.gif back to more than 100% gain
disca $2.80 now $5.4 +93%
bwld $7.10 now $5.8 -18%
sxci $10 now $22.7 +127%
lulu $19.20 now $14.05 -27% cut loss liao, opportunity lost gone, now $16.05 -16%
dltr $12.16 now $14 +15% exited with puny gains, opportunity cost gone, now $15.2 +25% cry.gif
tsco $98.50 now $97.52 -1%
hlf $68.74 now $72.23 +5%
aapl $560 now $607.70 +8%
dell $16.18 now $16.53 target exit $16.75 +2% enter for volume buying due to cheap, but not expect it to up much
bac $8.2 now $8.27 target exit $9 +0% enter for volume buying due to cheap, but not expect it to up much
mu $6.52 now $6.6 target exit $7.5 +0% enter for volume buying due to cheap, but not expect it to up much
dia $11.60 now $11.5 +0% http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2027841/+700 Post #701

QUOTE(learn2earn8 @ Apr 25 2012, 12:20 PM)
My current gambling positions +97%  shocking.gif no more 100% gain, can't win them all and shit do happens   
disca $2.80 now $4.1 +46%
bwld $7.10 now $3.1 -57%
sxci $10 now $22.1 +121%
lulu $19.20 now $14.05 -27% cut loss liao
dltr $12.16 now $14 +15% exited with puny gains 
tsco $98.50 now $96.93 -1%
hlf $68.74 now $69.10 +0%
aapl $560 have to hold it a while as a shortsqueeze really can squeeze, maybe exit when sighted next doji 
dell $16.18
bac $8.2
mu $6.52

zamans98, have to agree that options are for gambling, but with duit that one is willing to lose
I took up buy swing trades as per your position. but if it tidur for a long time, I will cut it rather than waste time
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl&ql=1 Apple Inc. (AAPL) After Hours: 603.81 Up 43.53 (7.77%)
*
pinkdevil88
post Apr 27 2012, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 27 2012, 06:54 AM)
Dividend is taxable. Most common option is to direct credit your trading account.

why need Div anyway? Its not much, the day range of a stock can make more than the 2-5 years divvy.

example. BAC 0.01x10000 = 100$
Today Range  8.17 - 8.40
Assume enter at 8.20 and sold at 8.30 x 10000  = $1000
*
You are still looking at abosolute figure instead of Percentage. Good luck to you. Imagine if BAC announce a 100 to 1 reverse stock split and the share is now trading at 817 - 840

still holding to your thesis??

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