QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ May 21 2011, 06:29 PM)
Correct me if i'm mistaken, generally i've found that:
With low interest rate (assuming managing low inflation):
Equities do very well
Bonds do better than FD
With mid interest rate (assuming managing mid inflation):
Equities do better than Bonds
Bonds and FD near equal
With high interest rate (assuming managing high inflation):
Equities does bad except for commodities
Bonds do worse than FD
Sorry but i'm not a gold bug. Personally, it's just another form of $ - i'm more interested in Assets that generate $, thus perhaps it can fit into one of the asset classes (commodities/metals?).
Not that 100% right, although one may find general it is the case.
First of all, we must understand, a level of interest rate is due to economy situation and central banks stand on the situation.
Even on high inflation situation, central bank can be very hawkish or just take a mild stand on it. So outcome of equities can be different, even though you have same inflation situation.
Equities generally doing well if situation favourable, as it is being exposed to higher risk.
Equities risk is not only economy or interest rate, equities also being exposed to mis-management, specific uncompetitive a particular industry or particular listed company, fraud etc.
You can have low interest rate environment which in theory equities should do well, but you can make a loss in equities market, due to specific issue happen on equities market, or specific listed company.
FD exposure is the lowest, it will get you low return, no matter how economy situation, most of the time, it won't able to outperform.
Bond is the mid exposure, it generally provide a little better than FD, if situation is stable or ok.
Equities is the one can yield good return, but high to risk exposure.
Each period of economy has different kind of situation, and different central bank, or different central bank controlling management group may have different approach.
Interest level low or high has lot of influence factor.
While equities, bond and FD is the receiving end of those policy, and equities is reacting to economy situation, instead of interest rate, although interest rate does have some influence on equities, just it is not as big as economy.
I hope it clears the concept.
Equities is all about economy. (Equities can boom with high interest rate as well, just like KLSE had super bull run eventhoug interest rate level was 6-8% during early 90's)
Bond is all about interest rate environment.