Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 Buying Gold As Investment V2, 2011 Gold Rush From Oil Hype

views
     
SUSAllnGap
post Mar 9 2011, 12:14 AM

[ Modding with Passion(tm) ]
*******
Senior Member
4,561 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penangites



i got trade GOLD and SILVER at the moment, i can tell you that the trend is super duper strong at the moment.

fundamental points
1. All the low interest money will cause all the investment money into commodities especially food, precious metal and oil
2. China's long term plan is to turn their RMB into the next reserve currency, means next time they wont trade using USD anymore, all the prices will be quoted in RMB (this plan already drafted out and will be carried out silently in years to come)
3. US debt ceiling will hit 14.5 trillion within this 2 months, they'll have to change their constitution to raise the debt ceiling
4. US's deficit per year will be about $1trillion per year, interest paid on the debt about $100 billion.
5. QE2 program will be ending this June. You can expect very crazy moves on DOW before JUNE because all the QE2 money is used to drive the stock market up. What if QE2 never continue ? DOW JONES will crash to 6500 instantly. If QE3 comes, you can expect another $600billion magic money appearing in the market
6. Rising oil prices will cause a lot of GDP to lower, rising cost of metal will eat into profits, a lot of country GDP not showing healthy rate, if this continue, GDP will go back to negative, stock prices cannot go up higher because profits wont be good, so stocks wont be going up. If property, stocks, bonds all not working or BEARISH, you think all the money will finally flow into where ?
It'll end up in commodities
SUSAllnGap
post Mar 9 2011, 03:21 PM

[ Modding with Passion(tm) ]
*******
Senior Member
4,561 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penangites



read this awesome article, it shows how little investment money is in the GOLD market atm.......

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-pos...re-not-watching

global pension funds control $31 trillion worldwide, all holding less than 0.3% of their portfolio in GOLD.....

imagine if MUNICIPAL BOND defaulted, all these money rush into GOLD ETF or physical GOLD rolleyes.gif
SUSAllnGap
post Mar 9 2011, 03:43 PM

[ Modding with Passion(tm) ]
*******
Senior Member
4,561 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penangites



QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 9 2011, 03:32 PM)
As I said way before, gold market is actually very small as compared to bond market and equities.

No, if any crisis, bond defaulted, people will rush to USD or US treasuries.
Gold market pond is not big enough for such a giant fish (the financial market money, liquidity) to seek for safe heaven.

Yes, gold may rise together with the safe heaven rush, but it is spill over effect, the real safe heaven is always USD and US treasuries as view by the financial market.

2008 is the classic eg. we can see from.
*
right now a lot of the municipal bonds are in deep shit, if one state default, what will happen to the insurance's fixed income ?


SUSAllnGap
post Mar 17 2011, 08:53 PM

[ Modding with Passion(tm) ]
*******
Senior Member
4,561 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
From: Penangites



the price we're seeing is the spot price which is the futures market.

As long as there are more money on 1 side, you can push it up or down....

the recent Japanese problem caused people to liquidate their position in the futures market causing the price to get sudden drop, but it'll slowly climb back.

physical demand and spot price is totally different thing.

Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0467sec    0.78    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 7th December 2025 - 02:20 AM