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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V73, Blood Bath is Refreshing!

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sulifeisgreat
post Feb 26 2011, 01:14 PM

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this stock market discussion is very messy. everything inside hmm.gif but its a convenient one stop reading area.
the many sub forum is a bit leceh to read & I wan spoon feeding for bolehand shares brows.gif

how come no sub forum on shares that is 'making good profit & increasing it'? then anyone able to go straight to analyse, due to its good fundamental smile.gif but fundamental pov is quite subjective here

there r many fa sifus here. some ta sifus oso doing their part (edwin & rosdi), any fair valuers out there to contribute?
as long as work together, its ok la once a while we fight & argue, but dun u guys wanna continue beating the klci? wink.gif

well, since tis request has been repeated to death, it means we gonna do it the status quo way laugh.gif

SKY 1809
post Feb 26 2011, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(mazda626 @ Feb 26 2011, 12:49 PM)
laugh.gif


Added on February 26, 2011, 12:58 pm

LOL rat not in the ratingĀ  laugh.gif

All in all, the year of the Metal Rabbit provides great opportunity for investors to reap the rewards of astute investing, but they should be forewarned: those who chase two rabbits will not catch one.

Does it implying NOT to diversify ?
*
Kinda agree.

I adopt hit and run for now.

But do not like to chase after the rabbits, preferably let the rabbits to come to me.

Best of luck.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 26 2011, 01:51 PM
v33n
post Feb 26 2011, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(monkeyking @ Feb 25 2011, 05:35 PM)
thumbup.gif Good for both of us as well as others who bought Tanco......2nd round of profit. rclxm9.gif .......hopefully a 3rd round will come too. brows.gif
*
hopeful for 3rd round of tanco....
yok70
post Feb 26 2011, 08:01 PM

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Found this thing:
http://www.magicformulainvesting.com/how_mfi_works.html

Use the Stock Screener to select the top-rated stocks from our database. Choose the number of stocks to view, and choose the size of the company you want in the list. Choosing more companies leads to greater diversification, and choosing larger companies generally leads to less volatility. Eliminate any companies you do not want to own for any reason; however, you should keep at least 20 stocks in an effort to properly manage risk.


So, holding 20+ stocks is good now? blink.gif

GIG@Z
post Feb 26 2011, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 26 2011, 08:01 PM)
Found this thing:
http://www.magicformulainvesting.com/how_mfi_works.html

Use the Stock Screener to select the top-rated stocks from our database. Choose the number of stocks to view, and choose the size of the company you want in the list. Choosing more companies leads to greater diversification, and choosing larger companies generally leads to less volatility. Eliminate any companies you do not want to own for any reason; however, you should keep at least 20 stocks in an effort to properly manage risk.
So, holding 20+ stocks is good now?  blink.gif
*
do you know of any good stocks screener ..to share
mazda626
post Feb 26 2011, 08:11 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 26 2011, 01:15 PM)
Kinda agree.

I adopt hit and run for now.

But do not like to chase after the rabbits, preferably let the rabbits to come to me.

Best of luck.
*
Yeah, that what i am thinking too. Thanks chief.. nod.gif
yok70
post Feb 26 2011, 08:16 PM

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Another glove factory on fire. doh.gif
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/194736?tid=1

Anyone know which company is it?


Added on February 26, 2011, 8:17 pm
QUOTE(GIG@Z @ Feb 26 2011, 08:07 PM)
do you know of any good stocks screener ..to share
*
dunno woh. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 26 2011, 08:17 PM
mopster
post Feb 26 2011, 09:10 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 26 2011, 08:16 PM)
Another glove factory on fire.Ā  doh.gif
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/194736?tid=1

Anyone know which company is it?
afaik Klang is TopGlove's Stronghold.. laugh.gif
Kossan's Office is also @ Klang... but factories i'm not sure... i think Klang also...

aiya... rubber catch fire is like a common thing... only chinese paper reports.. and they filter the name...
cannot even sell on news.... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by mopster: Feb 26 2011, 09:13 PM
sharesa
post Feb 26 2011, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 26 2011, 08:16 PM)
Another glove factory on fire.  doh.gif
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/194736?tid=1

Anyone know which company is it?


Added on February 26, 2011, 8:17 pm

dunno woh.  biggrin.gif
*
QUOTE(mopster @ Feb 26 2011, 09:10 PM)
afaik Klang is TopGlove's Stronghold.. laugh.gif
Kossan's Office is also @ Klang... but factories i'm not sure... i think Klang also...

aiya... rubber catch fire is like a common thing... only chinese paper reports.. and they filter the name...
cannot even sell on news.... laugh.gif
*
I saw the news and if not wrong, it has nothing to do with any listed company. I forgot the name......Sdn Bhd, and the kepala is an Indian smile.gif
SUSStupidGuyPlayComp
post Feb 26 2011, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Feb 26 2011, 09:10 PM)
afaik Klang is TopGlove's Stronghold.. laugh.gif
Kossan's Office is also @ Klang... but factories i'm not sure... i think Klang also...

aiya... rubber catch fire is like a common thing... only chinese paper reports.. and they filter the name...
cannot even sell on news.... laugh.gif
*
smile.gif Heard that is not listed company, the boss is indian
yok70
post Feb 26 2011, 09:34 PM

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QUOTE(sharesa @ Feb 26 2011, 09:23 PM)
I saw the news and if not wrong, it has nothing to do with any listed company. I forgot the name......Sdn Bhd, and the kepala is an Indian smile.gif
*
good good. thumbup.gif
kroegand
post Feb 26 2011, 10:35 PM

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just some curiosity on TM revenue hopefully somebody can enlighten me.

did the operating revenue of 2.3 billion TM made inclusive of the gain they got from disposing Measat and Axiata shares?? or is it pure revenue from operation only? still learning the financial statement so not very sure on this.

on side note JCY results looks depressing ... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by kroegand: Feb 26 2011, 10:40 PM
mopster
post Feb 26 2011, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(kroegand @ Feb 26 2011, 10:35 PM)
just some curiosity on TM revenue hopefully somebody can enlighten me.

did the operating revenue of 2.3 billion TM made inclusive of the gain they got from disposing Measat and Axiata shares?? or is it pure revenue from operation only? still learning the financial statement so not very sure on this.

on side note JCY results looks depressing ...  sweat.gif
*
the 2.3Billion Operating Revenue is purely from their operations.. below is the breakdown of operating revenue by "Products"...
Voice: 953M <--- still the bulk of rev but going downhill
Data: 491M <--- mostly corporate i think
Internet: 437M <--- Unifi, hotspot, screamyx
Others: 440M <--- i dunno what products... maybe phones, modems, etc...

However, Operating Profit does include the gain from disposals of Axiata & Measat. If i'm not wrong, in Q4 they only disposed Axiata...
Measat was done before Q4. They did not breakdown exactly how much from Axiata and Measat... You can view a table on Page21 for that info.

Dividend policy remains unchanged.. minimum 700M pa or higher.... abt 20c pa... 5% at current price.

Please note that TM is near the TP price of most IBs if my memory serves tongue.gif

me also learn learn only, if wrong need sifu to teach teach liao... biggrin.gif
kroegand
post Feb 26 2011, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Feb 26 2011, 11:14 PM)
the 2.3Billion Operating Revenue is purely from their operations.. below is the breakdown of operating revenue by "Products"...
Voice: 953M <--- still the bulk of rev but going downhill
Data: 491M <--- mostly corporate i think
Internet: 437M <--- Unifi, hotspot, screamyx
Others: 440M <--- i dunno what products... maybe phones, modems, etc...

However, Operating Profit does include the gain from disposals of Axiata & Measat. If i'm not wrong, in Q4 they only disposed Axiata...
Measat was done before Q4.Ā  They did not breakdown exactly how much from Axiata and Measat... You can view a table on Page21 for that info.

Dividend policy remains unchanged.. minimum 700M pa or higher.... abt 20c pa... 5% at current price.

Please note that TM is near the TP price of most IBs if my memory serves tongue.gif

me also learn learn only, if wrong need sifu to teach teach liao... biggrin.gif
*
so actual profit TM got from operation for Q4 is 408-213=195 mill only right? cos gain from share disposal was 213 mill right? is this actually reflected under OTHER GAINS (net)?? sorry BIG noob in this ... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by kroegand: Feb 27 2011, 12:03 AM
the snowball
post Feb 27 2011, 12:23 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 26 2011, 08:01 PM)
Found this thing:
http://www.magicformulainvesting.com/how_mfi_works.html

Use the Stock Screener to select the top-rated stocks from our database. Choose the number of stocks to view, and choose the size of the company you want in the list. Choosing more companies leads to greater diversification, and choosing larger companies generally leads to less volatility. Eliminate any companies you do not want to own for any reason; however, you should keep at least 20 stocks in an effort to properly manage risk.
So, holding 20+ stocks is good now?  blink.gif
*
The site is run by Joel Greenbalt - a hedgie who returns an impressive 40+% p.a. return since 1985. The Magic Formula site is actually the extension of his book-The Little Book that Beats the Market. If you are interested, try pick it up and read. It is quite short, can probably read it within an hour without buying it from book shop.

What the magic formula says is that, Joel back tested the returns data of US stocks and found that by just buying stock that are ranked with high ROIC+Low PE, the portfolio of stock will outperform the market and most fund managers by a significant margin. Joel method is subsequently tested on international stocks and it is found to have similar characteristics, that is, if you buy stocks with low PE + high ROIC, you will beat the market.

The reason for the 20+ stock holdings is that, the Magic Formula do not require any due diligence and research, you just buy what the magic formula list tell you to do. So, a concentrated portfolio is not suitable in this case as stocks may be cheap for a valid reason. It may have problems that fundamentally affects its operations. Without research, you won't know these reasons. So, by buying 20 stocks, it hopefully will diversify away the risks of some stocks that will go to zero.
yok70
post Feb 27 2011, 12:53 AM

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QUOTE(the snowball @ Feb 27 2011, 12:23 AM)
The site is run by Joel Greenbalt - a hedgie who returns an impressive 40+% p.a. return since 1985. The Magic Formula site is actually the extension of his book-The Little Book that Beats the Market. If you are interested, try pick it up and read. It is quite short, can probably read it within an hour without buying it from book shop.

What the magic formula says is that, Joel back tested the returns data of US stocks and found that by just buying stock that are ranked with high ROIC+Low PE, the portfolio of stock will outperform the market and most fund managers by a significant margin. Joel method is subsequently tested on international stocks and it is found to have similar characteristics, that is, if you buy stocks with low PE + high ROIC, you will beat the market.

The reason for the 20+ stock holdings is that, the Magic Formula do not require any due diligence and research, you just buy what the magic formula list tell you to do. So, a concentrated portfolio is not suitable in this case as stocks may be cheap for a valid reason. It may have problems that fundamentally affects its operations. Without research, you won't know these reasons. So, by buying 20 stocks, it hopefully will diversify away the risks of some stocks that will go to zero.
*
Great read of your info. Thanks! notworthy.gif

I remember read from somewhere saying Buffet prefer ROE to any other measuring method (be it ROI or EPS etc.).
I'd love to hear your thoughts (or from any other forumers) regarding it. Especially on the ROE vs. ROI case.

Thanks again! notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 27 2011, 12:54 AM
simplesmile
post Feb 27 2011, 01:41 AM

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What is ROIC?
Return on Invested Capital? with capital being "Equity and Loan"?
fusilad
post Feb 27 2011, 01:44 AM

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NEW YORK: Warren Buffett is looking for acquisitions as an outlet to deploy his $38 billion cash pile, the legendary investor said in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc shareholders on Saturday, Feb 26.

Buffett also gave an aggressive earnings forecast for Berkshire's collection of businesses, said the company would engage in record capital spending and forecast a recovery in the housing market would start within a year.

Buffett acknowledged the need for Berkshire to expand to grow earnings at its non-insurance businesses, a broad collection that most prominently includes the railroad Burlington Northern and the electric utility MidAmerican.

"Our elephant gun has been reloaded, and my trigger finger is itchy," Buffett said. The letter was released just before 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT on) Saturday, as it is in most years -- and many large investors say they get up early that day to read it the moment it comes online.

The so-called "Oracle of Omaha" said Berkshire will need "more major acquisitions" -- with an italicized emphasis on major -- to meet its goal.

One long-time Berkshire investor described the letter as "punchy" and "confidently American," among other things.

"I would say as an investor, I think it's a very upbeat letter, it's one that celebrates his courage on behalf of investors of going into the marketplace when the world was most fearful," said Tom Russo, a partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, who is one of the 15 largest holders of Berkshire Class A shares

mazda626
post Feb 27 2011, 02:28 AM

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...."Another favourite sector is the information and communications technology (ICT) given the continuing growth in the segment following the rapid development in new communication gadgets, which will also help boost the electrical and electronics sector"..... rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...142128/Article/


Added on February 27, 2011, 2:32 am........"foreign funds were still around and the longer-term outlook was still bullish for local stocks. Affin Investment Bank - the drop in local market offered investors a chance to accumulate and buy cheap, noting that longer-term outlook remained bullish....." laugh.gif


http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...110633/Article/

This post has been edited by mazda626: Feb 27 2011, 02:33 AM
the snowball
post Feb 27 2011, 02:50 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 27 2011, 12:53 AM)
Great read of your info. Thanks!  notworthy.gif

I remember read from somewhere saying Buffet prefer ROE to any other measuring method (be it ROI or EPS etc.).
I'd love to hear your thoughts (or from any other forumers) regarding it. Especially on the ROE vs. ROI case.

Thanks again!  notworthy.gif
*
I think Buffett look at all of those. The differences between ROI, ROIC verus ROE stems from the type of return there are measuring. For ROI and ROIC, it incorporates both debt financing (e.g. banks and bond holders) and equity financing (e.g. stock holders like us), so it measures the total return of company in utilizing both type of financing. For ROE, it measures the return on equity financing only. The problem with ROE may be that, since it disregard debt financing, companies may generate extraordinary ROE by taking a lot of leverage. So, ROIC may be a better measure if companies employs a lot of leverage. Take the private equity firm Blackstone as an example, their ROE is impressive but if you look at the leverage, then it is a bit scary. Even Olam, the Singapore-based commodities trader, my school professor like them a lot and use it as a case study of good companies, I tell my prof that this company is doing crazy stuff and if things goes bad, can easily collapse. If you look at their leverage and what they are trying to do, you will understand why I say so. Or back to Malaysia, we look at Parkson, their ROE is pretty decent, above 20+% if I am not mistaken, but, if you look carefully, a lot of their assets is not stated on the balance sheet through the use of operating leases, so their ROE is actually overstated. If you bring those things back to balance sheet, their ROE is still very high, but it is achieve through the use of leverage rather than via operations.

So, at times, ROE may not give a good measure of a business if there is a lot of leverage. Using ROIC and ROI will allow users to easily compare across industry as it is not affected by their financing decision (e.g. how much debt a company holds). A Chinaman company with a lot of cash may looks bad when compared to a modern firm using some advanced but questionable theory like optimal capital structure. But, when compare based on ROIC and ROI, this Chinaman company may be better than all these so-called modern firms. This Chinaman company survive better during a crisis too. If Genting Malaysia were to leverage its balance sheet crazily like what Las Vegas Sands did, GENM would have one of the most impressive ROE in the world. At the peak before the crisis, it took LVS $7 dollars of debt to generate $1 dollars of revenue. LVS runs into trouble during crisis, but, they manage to take care of their debt. They could easily went bankrupt if not for their wealthy majority owner pump money into the company. But, that's was history, people already forgotten about that. Those who bought at the depth of the crisis would have made 20x their money buying LVS, but, hindsight is always 20/20.

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