Tech stock is more cyclical in nature, good for some period, then perform bad for some period.

As tech gadget is constantly changing, today top seller model/product, may not be the top product next year.

Unlike McD is the top seller of fast food, we know 95% it will be top seller for the next 3-5 or even 10 years down the road, with the SAME product.

I have to agree with you just look at these example.
If you are on the wrong timing... you can have big big problem
No matter what stock you invest...
AAPL

GOOG

MSFT

IBM


EMC

True, AAPL is not for small fries, unless you bought it in 2001

With my most optimistic valuation,it is traded at one year ahead my current valuation.
If you intends to buy it now, you're expecting apple will come out another new product that is as amazing as iphone 3gs / 4.
there is too much expectation in this stock,once the expectation unable to be met,I will not surprise the share price drop 10%-15%.
probably if you have insider information knowing what product they will release , haha then go for it

Well, a lot of people place their blind faith on apple in the last ten years and they had been rewarded handsomely.
Although past results should never be used as a reference but you know, it can still tempt a lot of people.
I would not even be surprised that iPad and iPhone still hold their incredible market share a year from now, however unlikely that may be. I am immune to apple surprises already, been surprised far too many times. Their profit guidance is designed to surprise the market.

iPhone 5 anyone?

I would rather invest in google rather than apple especially since Jobs is no longer the acting CEO. Unlike Apple which depends largely on it's gadgets (iPad, iPod, iPhone), Google has a more diversified business portfolio which is moving away from online advertisements.

But that's just my 2 cents.

Just wanna compare with FD... FD in 25 years (avg. 4% p.a.) you could double your money at least (not a good return but it's safe)

That's what I am thinking too.I still haven't calculate google intrinsic value.
If steve jobs unable to play main role (CEO)in apple...probably it will become another nokia..probably..
however for google...i think it doesn't matter who is the CEO...the business itself is an advertisement king in this world.
so think twice before invest in apple

find a way to obtain an australian tax file number (TFN) and place your money there.

lock it in term deposits for 6 months and obtain 6.41%

lucrative and risk-free.

Actually, Apple stock is not as expensive as most people think it is. The reason that people think so is that it has move up a lot in the past few years. It is cheaper than google on PE terms. Most people do not value the cash on Apple balance sheet. Net off cash, the thing is selling at around 17x net cash TTM, not seriously expensive. Yup, it is dependent on coming up with new products, which probably make it a risky stock compare to your bread and butter Colgate Palmolive (18x TTM) etc. But, it is trading a a cheaper valuation than Google (19x net cash TTM)with a better historical growth trajectory. The key for Apple is that, whether the recently converted Apple cult will stay loyal to their product. If they manage to do so, they have retain a good loyal base with good cross selling opportunity. Apple will remain a seller of high margin niche product.

For Google, they are starting to face pressure of becoming a giant like Microsoft. They start to receive antitrust probe and criticism. The "Do No Evil" feel good factor is diminishing. Make no mistake, I think Google has done more to improve the internet than any other company. I think most of us have use at least two of their products- search, youtube, google reader, google docs, android and etc. All great stuff.They have a dominant position in search and with internet advertising still an under utilize platform, they will do well. But, still Google is still a one product wonder. Their financials has just one division-Search, meaning, other revenue stream is not meaningful and relevant. It is all about search advertising.

Google is slightly more expensive than Apple. Both are not that expensive if you take into account the reportedly crazy Facebook valuation of USD50b. Facebook is not as expensive as other tech out there - Netflix (77x TTM) and Open Table ( a stunning 105x TTM and 60+ Forward PE, I don't know what growth they are imputing, this thing is crazily overvalued. If it growth as expected, you will only get a decent return).

I do not own any of that two (GOOG and AAPL), just my 2 cents. But, lol, I do own their common competitor- the lumbering, slow and some says dying and IBM-like giant-Microsoft.

This post has been edited by the snowball: Feb 11 2011, 10:40 PM

Agree with your assessment for NFLX and OPEN. Crazy valuation..
But, there are tons of people chasing NFLX now esp. hedge funds.
There are rumors that NFLX may go international and partner with a foreign partner in the local country.
If this is true, their business could expand pretty big.

As for AAPL, this fruit is money maker. If in future, S.Jobs no longer at the helm, rumor has it he's creating
an army of mini Jobs-like in Apple to allow the company continue to thrive and innovate like him.

Yup. They are talks about international expansion by the CEO. I think you have probably read this, it is an interesting exchange between a fund manager who short netflix and a very courteous reply by the CEO.

Fund manager short thesis: http://seekingalpha.com/article/242320-whi...e-short-netflix

CEO reply (includes some talk about expansion) : http://seekingalpha.com/article/242653-net...rt-position-now

It is a good exchange between the two. Hope more CEO will follow netflix CEO suit. Don't just scold investor that short their company. Counter them with facts rather than personal attack. But, I think the CEO never touch on the valuation issue, which is main contention by the fund manager.

Sorry for off topic, will keep discussion back to Apple after this. Just feel that it is a very nice thesis to share.

tis is for discussion purpose & about forward pe. pay ferrari, get ferrari, pay kap chai, get kap chai http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=msft

$27.40 msft 9.9
$356.20 aapl 13.9
$617.39 goog 15.5
$226.10 nflx 36.7
$94.2 open 82.1

msft need to grow revenue or it continues to lumber, definitely not part of my watchlist but y choose it?


aapl, breakout to new high, under normal circumstances, will enter, but after indices does a pullback


goog, tidur sideways, not part of my watchlist as they attempt shakeout gamblers, if breakout, then can consider


nflx, another breakout to new high, under normal circumstances, will enter, but after indices does a pullback


open, another breakout to new high, since not yet triple digit & the no. of momo low, very high chance can achieve $$$


all the fa r public known info, which 1 to choose? I need to use ta/ chart for clearer picture. if to choose either 1 from the 5 choices above.
I take open wat about the rest of u?

I didn't say it is very expansive..in fact it is trading around between its par to 2 years ahead intrinsic value.since there are many stocks trading at 80%-200% above its intrinsic value.
but the nature of business for apple posses greater downward risk..
for google, probably the intrinsic value of google grows slower than apple and it is more expansive now..but I can guarantee it's downward risk is much more safer than apple.but I won't buy google now too..I just prefer its business nature than apple.
What I am trying to talking here is, you're expecting Apple will come out a great new product in certain way if you're invest in CURRENT price.
Unless you're like some forumer here, invest in apple few years ago,it shouldn't be a concern to you.
I bet everyone would like to own Apple here,but for the current price with some premium paid for it based on valuation, but posses 10-20% of downward risk, so judge yourself are you willing to accept the risk.

For facebook, that is certainly a joke to ask for USD50b judging from its revenue without even looking its net profit...

I do not own those big giant technology, but the company I invest is small to medium type software company with some stable and good return of equity that grows intrinsic value 10%-20% yearly.

So wish the investor here good luck if buy apple at CURRENT price.

LOL, please come to a sense of realism.

How many of you actually holding any GOOGLE or APPLE stocks? Just talk talk, heated arguments, but at the end of the day, nothing.

Just go and buy any TECH stock which have some promise. //END OF ARGUMENT//

who said nothing?come on,everyone has their own opinion.
Just because you 're so active and like to talk about share, it is just your way of making money.
My way of making money is carefully choose a business/stock (even make some argument)and invest in huge sum.
What I am talking about above are totally related to value of the stock and some of the long term effect.
yes, I know many of trader/charter here say we value investor only like to talk theory, talk and talk only.
you're trader, what I am talking here is totally irrelevant to many of you.
It is just like all those graph and TA are totally irrelevant to me too.

PS:I am not here to argue which way to invest here is better, It is just we are in different world of investing. so for TA guys here, you can skip all those comment that are not related to you.
TQ

Kinda agree with you.

People like to talk about their rich neighbors and relatives.

But not motivated enough to ( search and buy ) and becoming one of them.

So much talking ( without actions ) would not make them rich.

I do not think other parts of the world would be totally diff from our Bolehland on this, better opportunities perhaps.

Time to look for the next Apple in town.

Have you ( the forumers ) heard of Acres of Diamonds , BTW.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 13 2011, 10:32 AM

Haha. I don't really think there is any argument here let alone a heated one. It is a pretty decent discussion.

I think most of us actually take a look at these companies and decide not to buy it. Not buying, in itself is a decision, you don't need to look at a company and buy it all the time. Just like we look at and research a lot of companies, but the one we are buying is perhaps 1-2% of the population that we look at.

Dude, you don't get it. Yes, everyone have an opinion, but what are u doing about it? Trash talking - yes, every one can do. Same like sex, one may boast this and that, but when come to perform, LOL, don't come even near. Got it?

You talk about APPLE if you wanna buy, either LONG or SHORT. Else, why waste your precious time and energy talking about and around it? Pretty useless.

Best of it - go dig info on next "big" thing.

This post has been edited by zamans98: Feb 13 2011, 05:36 PM

It is same like those graph and TA analysis are trash to me.
how you know I didn't dig another big thing?
I talk about apple it doesn't mean I have to buy or sell, I can wait then buy.
So save your time to monitor your market instead of thinking you think you know what I am doing.

Anyway, Sorry if my post reply sound offensive.probably I really talking trash my view point of the business and my valuation.
mod, please delete all those unrelated stuff to this topic.
thanks

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Feb 13 2011, 07:01 PM