hi all ...

as title ... last year JAN 2010 it was 3.76 till end of the year DEC 2010 up till 5.55, its like a huge bump

thats alot ..... but this year im thinking to buy in, so need advice from pros and sifu ......

hmm what do u guys think ?? should i ??? coz im thinking to buy 5 lots

thanks

Hmm... The 1st quarter decreased though the % is not alot... But it has been going sideway for almost a month... Maybe it is quite safe to enter now...

hmmm decrease ?? decrease due to split of shares ............ r u refering to increase and decrease % ???

here is the historical announcement


http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/listed_c.../historical.jsp

thanks

if for me, i will ask myself why u want to buy this counter? any good fundamental? what is the business nature? any impact in the future will affect the business? any valuable property in hand? any cash in hand? any prospective expansion?

i will more prefer in property counter than other... more secure... that only my opinion and thinking

thanks

due to recent split.
this counter is over valued.

lol ...ur question really referring to property counter .... hehe

i think of buying this counter coz i feeling it got hope increase again, coz last year really increase alot

I don't know about short run...but this counter worth to have a look for long term investor...
the current price still at a little bit discount, and my value for it is around RM1.25 - RM 1.40..
around 10%-15 discount ...I am thinking to buy some of it too..
happy investing

My view is that the train had left the station. I was looking at this on the last week of Dec 2010.

fundamental wise, retail clothing is a tough business to be in.

hmm since like that ... i think im gonna in 2 lot~~~ thanks for the idea

TA purists can ignore this post. My two cents are spoilered.



This post has been edited by VesperMartini: Jan 27 2011, 11:10 PM

I don't know about short term price...and actually wont put much concern on it.I am value investor and not chartist or TA specialist.
so we;re in different track of game.
I am still doing my homework on the business,
this stock considered as good but certainly not the best.
if it going to drop to 60-90 cents i will just buy more.

certainly + i am still concern about the business are the price maker or taker.. but seems like it is price taker... too bad..but with such profit margin and and ROE in retailing clothes business, quite impressive though I would say especially in Malaysia.

any other opinion?
i am still working out on it before can contribute more

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Added on January 28, 2011, 12:01 amThanks, that's my concern too it is really helpful.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jan 28 2011, 12:01 AM

hmmm ..........

This post has been edited by madguy88: Jan 28 2011, 12:23 AM

I have alots share at RM1.10... then second day it fly to RM1.29 then 3rd days RM1.35 !! And I didnt sell It !! Now drop to RM1.13..luckiyl today raise abit !! WTF !! I should sell when suddenly RAISE SO MUCH !

My view,
This is not a very smart strategy...
To average down when the price had dropped by 40 to 50 % can never be a smart strategy to me..
When price had dropped 50% it will need to move up 100%just to be back to the same location.
To me cutting loss is still the best trading strategy....

as i said, i am value investor..
the growing story certainly have affect the intrinsic value of padini in long run,

my two concern would be,
1) padini is price taker
2) cotton price do have some effect on it
3)I am still doing some research whether padini would done sucesssfully if the grows oversea.

It doesn't mean the value of the stock will decreasing, it is just the growing of the intrinsic value will be much slower in future
yes, i still will consider it as long term investment, but wont put too much in my overall portfolio

just my 2 cents..

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Added on January 28, 2011, 12:37 ami am not trader lol...
i have been doing these for years...
anyway thanks your kindly advice

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jan 28 2011, 12:37 AM

The price doesn't need to move 100% up to get back to the same position. For instance, let say you buy a stock (1 unit as example):

Your Entry price: RM 1

Current price: 0.50

So, you restock at Rm 0.50, meaning your average price now is RM 0.75 ([RM 1+ RM 0.50] /2). As long as the price hit to RM 0.75, you will break even and any movement above RM 0.75 is a profit.

*ignore brokerage fees for the above example

No offense intended, but i just don't understand that 100% part. Sometimes, it's good to average down. My 2cents.

My trade
I analyse all the stock in the market ...
I average down only up to the 5% drop... if it drop further to 10 % I will just cut my losses and move on to another counter. so I will never see the 20, 30 or 50% losses.

I am still looking at Padini. In fact, I indirectly have interest in it thru ICAP.

Yes cotton price is a concern. In fact they have admittedly said they aren't usually the first mover to increase their product prices. This shows they do not have enough pricing power over their products. However, i think cotton price will stabilize when it hit the sweet balance spot in the long term. But i dunno how much. I have listen to CNBC commentary one day. Looks like the commodities guys are doing the oil dirty trick. There isn't really short of supply. Mainly are speculative. But that's for cocoa, not sure bout cotton.

ONE thing to note though, Padini biggest revenue contributor are from Vincci. And I have seen its ability to attract even the LV-fan ladies. So it is a powerful brand. Their business...just take a weekend walk to MidValley you'll see. But, premium Vincci+ dun quite make the cut.

Another thing I like about it, is how the management is working on its cost control. The move to all of them in one Padini concept store will reduce rental cost. Although I m not sure how it'll affect Vincci sales. Their move to focus on higher margin Brands Outlet might cushion the cotton pressure a little bit in short term.

Nevertheless, fashion retail industry is a tough one. Big guys could take advantage of current cotton price hike to squeeze out their competitors. Old dirty trick. Padini biggest competitors from what I could see are from the likes of Espirit, Topshop and Gap. Prices of their products are far higher. So there is still a little room for price rise. If I were Padini, I'll do it after CNY. Sales will slow down during after that anyway. That'll allow consumer to slowly settle with the new price.

Paidini did say double digit return next FY onwards will be difficult. I am taking a more conservative entry price of RM0.83 after 20% margin of error to my valuation.



Just my sharing. What do you think?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Fool Investor

SPOT ON..exactly what I am thinking
their management is considered good in cost control as I noticed too...

personally, I believe their biggest competitor is top shop and a quite new competitor from australia called cotton on .

and Yes, Vincci is their main earning weapon.. i know it cause I used to go there quite often (with my ex LoL)
From the cost side of the business,the cotton price will have impact on the business.
But personally ,I believe the business's intrinsic value still growing at sufficient rate in my conservative calculation.
but the I still working on it too..still doing some analysis for it's contingent liabilities, from cost side (cotton) and their growing strategy.

BTW, what do you meant by double digit return? in terms growing of company's profit?revenue? or ROE? or share price???

it is still at discount compared to my valuation, of course I hope can enter lower price, but I just use lower averaging method as I have zero knowledge to predict where the share price are going..

Oh.. typo. Actually double digit growth in revenue for that company.

Yea. Think every individual valuation will be quite different. It is still difficult to have a guesstimate how cotton cost could impact their bottom line - profit margin wise.

Neither do I know where the share price is heading. But all i know if I purchase at a price reasonable enough and the business is good, I'll do OK.

hmmmm mean if i wan buy ...... buy after CNY ?? just asking only, nothing much heheehe

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Added on January 28, 2011, 11:43 amyeah me too .........

This post has been edited by madguy88: Jan 28 2011, 11:44 AM

Any sifu here! Padini from 5rm ++ now just 1.XX ++

Any idea ! can get some? long term or short term?

Please advice.

Thanks.

Hing Yiap - privatization...
will Padini be the next??

That why i asking lo!! Any idea!

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Added on February 18, 2011, 2:31 pmThat why i asking lo!! Any idea!

This post has been edited by davidcch07: Feb 18 2011, 02:31 PM

Dude this company just underwent share spilt RM0.50 to RM0.10. It does not mean the share is cheaper just means you got more share 5x more

Highlander : Thanks > But 1.10 is consider my $$ to invest! So i just want to know able to hold it?

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Added on February 18, 2011, 3:35 pmHighlander : Thanks > But 1.10 is consider my $$ to invest! So i just want to know able to hold it?

This post has been edited by davidcch07: Feb 18 2011, 03:35 PM

Padini price converted to RM1.XX is due to Share split.

My opinion on it is more on long term investment , by the way, what is your definition of short or long term in duration sense ?

Alvin,
Noted. I mean can i hold the share for 2 year. Then sold off! coz plan to marry use!

Padini good to hold !! I bought at RM1.10 then sold off at RM1.30 ~~
Then collec again at RM1.10 !!

im thinking to going in too and hold for long term.... XD ... should go in @ 1.05 ... damn .. now 1.12 edi ..

This post has been edited by madguy88: Feb 19 2011, 03:28 PM

Ya that why i asking can it be hold for 2 year:)
i guess just declare dividen so will shootup abit !

Nono..You cannot buy even as low as RM1.06 ~~
They just playing the game !! You want buy is RM1.11...and the price they queve to buy is RM1.05/1.06/1.07..but all can't make it !!
Coz..I'm queving too!!

Padini 1 to 5 share split news here: http://klse.i3investor.com/jsp/incl/anndet.jsp?aid=50408

Also check out its price target news here: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptg/7052.jsp

WilHuang: look like the TP not that good! But if buy more lot will different!

Thanks

The market all in red, but Padini looks like quite stable...the company that strong??

Volume not big, effect lesser..

Right, and the price is going down, wait for a while, don't rush....

COLLECT AT LOW PRICE !!

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Added on February 25, 2011, 4:13 pmALOT PPL THROW PADINI SHARES !!


This post has been edited by veilside2010: Feb 25 2011, 04:13 PM

but look at the TP from OSK... is 1.01!!! what the.....

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Added on February 28, 2011, 12:34 pmThe latest one ... is 1.11 ++ so can all in ? lolz

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Added on March 24, 2011, 11:02 pmSifus...
The price is super low now.. 1.01... can try to in? any idea !? market analyse?

This post has been edited by davidcch07: Mar 24 2011, 11:02 PM

i think now padini got potential ... lol what u guys think... ??

I also think you are right but I don't know the reasons.
May be there are others who know..

Padini is worth to invest, they have multiple outlets around the nation and countries.

they do have surprises that stakeholders will somehow buy their share in high price

I am nt sure if PADINI is doing any other business other than the PADINI stores I can see in shopping center, but one thing is since we buy everything using cash, so i think the cash flow in this company is good, so i think it is ok to buy this stock.

Showed some movement today

Let see their following quarter report. I strongly feel this counter is quite good for long term invest.

Maybank gives Padini a buy call with target price 1.30


Attached File(s)
 Padini.pdf ( 587.38k ) Number of downloads: 95

This Counter is quick potential to get further, but their cost on row material(cotton) is unstable, and that will direct impact to the share price. Whatever the expertise said, you have to do your own research, some news or remiser will push you into black hold.

price is pretty low right now, any reason for this? was thinking of getting another 50 lots on this share

Visited their Vinci stores at a few outlets recently. Business is still fairly robust. Most ladies I know buy a few pairs once every few months.

its really cheap now, maybe its time to get me some more shares

could get cheaper.

its already diluted earning still same but EPS goes down not worth it

look like comin ady..

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Added on October 13, 2011, 11:17 amyesss kampateh nehhh

This post has been edited by Ladyfinger88: Oct 13 2011, 11:17 AM

Just my 2cents...
this can be a long term investment,
the return might be slow but I think it is damn "safe"

Market Cap 710M
EPS 21.5700
NTA 0.4700
DPS 4.00
P/E 5.01
ROE 45.8936

Just my 2cents...
this can be a long term investment,
the return might be slow but I think it is damn "safe"

Market Cap 710M
EPS 21.5700
NTA 0.4700
DPS 4.00
P/E 5.01
ROE 45.8936

Anyone knows what happen to Padini today?

Good sales record. Now is the festive season again, it will help to boost up the sales.

http://klse.i3investor.com/quoteservlet.jsp?sa=ss&q=PADINI

I also wan to know what happen to PADINI now.
Wish to buy but today rise le... TT

This stock expected to continue it up trend


Attached thumbnail(s)

This stock expected to continue it up trend


Attached thumbnail(s)

not moving much today..

Drop til rm1.10 today

this is a nice share for long term i did grab myself some when it was at RM1.08....

Saw rm1.08 this few day...

Good counter and you can see the price rose in the 1Q 2011 after the christmas and new year sales. We can expect another good result in 1Q 2012 where reaching above RM1.30. Again, now is the season for shopping.

http://klse.i3investor.com/quoteservlet.jsp?sa=ss&q=padini

Another good counters to consider are Parkson and AEON. However, most of the researcher still rated Padini the best for growth.

having seen it trades at range between RM1.27~RM1.33 since 26-Jan-2012, any further upside potential for this counter in the near to medium-term?

does anyone have the lastest analysis reports by research house to share over here? thanks

Financial year of PADINI ends on June 30 each year. I did some analysis for its financial results ended Dec 31, 2011. Here are what I got:


Current Ratio - 2.29
Acid Test Ratio - 1.10
Long term debt/equity Ratio - 0.065
ROE - 0.17

For 6 months ended Dec 31, 2011
Revenue growth - 36%
Net profit growth - 69%


Also, from news dated Dec 17 last year...
In the next six months, Padini will continue expanding into new territories. The five stores it will open are one concept store and a Brands Outlet each in Setia City Mall, Shah Alam, and Paradigm, Kelana Jaya, along with one concept store in Jusco Station 18, Ipoh.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...07&sec=business

But the price has gone up to RM1.48. I can't say if it's still a bargain. If you can get the earning per shares for the last 4 quarters, we can compute P/E ratio

PADINI is hot picked stock for consumer product category. How good their business is? Drop by Johor Premium Outlet (JPO) there and you will know.


Maybank, Jupiter, HwangDBS, OSK = BUY.


http://klse.i3investor.com/ptservlet.jsp?sa=pts&q=PADINI

is also a BUY by AmResearch

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

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Added on March 13, 2012, 10:27 amyesterday HwangDBS ups its TP for Padini to RM1.75 from RM1.40

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/209466.jsp

This post has been edited by Y2016: Mar 13 2012, 10:27 AM

I just computed the intrinsic value for PADINI, using method described in Pat Dorsey's book. Here is what I got...







Wow! The 'fair value' for PADINI is more than 2 times the current stock price

Maybe you guys can work out the intrinsic value using other assumptions or methods

this is cool...
where do we get the excel formulaes?
please share.. very much interested in doing it too =)

Just my opinion
When you use such formula to compute Intrinsic value, there is a lot of flaw exist in the input.
1) FCF itself not really suitable to be used. Capital investment expenditure level is different years from years. The FCF input you shown below behave like a steady increase straight line which is not very realistic in reality. For example, in certain year PADINI may have to fork out huge capital expenditure just to maintain in the game. Plenty of competitor out there such as Topshop, Cotton on bla bla.

2)your perpetuity value is too optimistic.

well Pat Dorsey's book is a good book. But not really quite useful especially the valuation part. Valuation is only good if the input is good enough.

just my opinion.

Then is there a better book than Dorsey's book on stock valuation? Pls tell... I'm also currently reading and digesting Dorsey's book...

And what about Ho Kok Mun's method of stock valuation? Is it good?

Someone Answered it in your thread.

Well not sure about the book you mentioned above.So no comment.

I have no doubt that my valuation is flawed. Which is why I ask you to compute based on other assumptions, or using other methods. Let's discuss. This is part of learning process

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Added on March 19, 2012, 8:35 amPM me your e-mail address.



This post has been edited by river.sand: Mar 19 2012, 08:43 AM

Any forecast depends a lot of assumptions made. And to have 10 years forecast about the future when we do not even know exactly how the Euro evolves and or China performs in the future ?

To me is like to simplify the world complicated issues into simple straight answers . well theory is always able to solve all world problems, but quite hard to happen in the presumed manners.

I do not think the rather constant results throughout the next 10 years could actually happen. Steady positive growths throughout, possible ?

could in rubbish in and rubbish out scenario ?

Just my view.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Mar 19 2012, 09:49 AM

To be frank, I don't take the value computed very seriously

Well, I actually assume the growth would slow from 20% to 10%.

This post has been edited by river.sand: Mar 19 2012, 09:31 AM

Look like you set the objectives for the management to achieve for the next 10 years , a bit like WB.

Well Done

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Mar 19 2012, 11:22 AM

Well, it is good that you're not taking your value too seriously maybe you know there is some flaw there. I thought you're taking it too serious...and the model computed RM4.xx. Now share price is around 1.xx -2.xx. It might appear more than 50% discount form your valuation.

well just share my simple valuation methodology follow from other value gurus.

Book Value of PADINI is around RM0.50 cents. The return on equity of the stock is around 30% currently. LET SAY (ASSUMPTION AGAIN!) it able to maintain it in future.
Taking discount rate of 10% for my personally...it means your overall opportunity cost is around 10%.

Opportunity cost 10%.
PADINI generate ROE of 30% which is triple to my opportunity cost.
growth as 3% as u mentioned above.

WITHOUT GROWTH VALUE =

0.50 * 3 = 1.50

WITH GROWTH VALUE

0.50 * ( [0.30*(1.03)]/(0.10-0.03)) = 2.207

But we are assuming PADINI can maintain ROE of 30%. This is big assumption and totally depends on your business foresight and the understanding of your current business fashion retailing in Malaysia.Well my guess is PADINI is valued quite close to market price now.But personally I think is an OK to good stock in the long run.

Just my lousy valuation and opinion.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Mar 19 2012, 12:01 PM

nice explanation on above forumers are there any other counters in klse undervalued in klse?
eg. hows the valuation for tdm? its fundamental looks goodie, but how about its valuation?
it caught my attention when it went to new high of RM3.8 back in early january 2012
http://biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch/char...p8=599&p9=8.718

if you're true value investor, you only can value the company after u have some understanding of the company. For the case of TDM, I don't have any idea because I never did any research on the company. While I did some research on Padini 1 year ago, well you can see my post in the early thread. so I am not able to help u on TDM.

icic thanks and keep up the good write up guys its good to for all to have an overall view on individual counters

I think the TDM thread will be of more info for you.

Hmmm has PADINI overcome their cotton resource costs with hedging? That seemed to be their biggest headache before.

This formula is very similar to the perpetuity value in Dorsey's method. Now, back to my valuation, if I ignore the 10-year FCF, I got:

1417066/657910 = 2.15

Not sure, but I noticed that some of their product have been marked up in term of price ( I visited their store several times last few months ).I think their strategy now more focus on quality and try to mark up their margin.

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Added on March 19, 2012, 1:09 pmwhy you have to ignore 10 year FCF?
why only take the 10th year FCF and discounted back to generate the value but not just using the 1st year FCF to generate perpetuity? Doesn't sound make sense to me.
Sounds like you're trying to fit the value so it close to share price.
Well if this work for you, then stick to your way.
Well the formula it good itself, but a lot of value it can't capture and couldn't capture well.
For example the formula I used, I only value something higher than book value if the return generate by business exceed my opportunity cost. But other factor such as consistency of profit generated by business is totally depends on your business foresight or experience.
just my opinion, not to say which method is inferior or superior.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Mar 19 2012, 01:09 PM

price now look very high ..impossible keep going up n up.

I was reading about cotton and found out that since last year Feb 2011, the prices have dropped about 50%. So that would explain the higher margins and also better profits for garment manufacturers.

I downloaded Padini's financial statement for Q4 2011, but found the gross margin hasn't changed much

Hmm you're right, seems like not much difference.

Hehe maybe they made more non-cotton products?

Yes you right too.
COGS increase by some amount of %. But Revenue do increase too% to cover their cost. Compute the Average days in inventory turnover pretty much can guess where the revenue come from. either charge more or sale more.
From the experience last time I visited in their store, they do increase their product price (All the price is quite near to the price charged by Esprits) probably want to maintain the profit margin they used to charge before.
They key question is whether customer willing to pay more? The nature of this industry is very competitive and dynamic. Temporarily competitve advantage doesn't mean anything (Look at Esprit Share price in Hong Kong ). Majority of the target customer from PADINI are age from 18 - 30 whose taste preference can change pretty quickly.