so whats the reason on today's rally
FCPO futures, trading futures
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 Apr 5 2017, 02:23 PM
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#1
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Junior Member
57 posts Joined: Dec 2009 
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Apr 6 2017, 05:39 PM
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#2
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Junior Member
57 posts Joined: Dec 2009
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QUOTE(good2shares @ Apr 5 2017, 08:30 PM) Why the 2nd contract month (May 2017) up much more than other contract month (before and after it) ? (This is important when analayse it for soread trading.) It's technical play. Month Prv.Price Last Done Change -------- ---------- ---------- -------- Apr-17 2,930.00 2,930.00 69 May-17 2,833.00 2,834.00 105 Jun-17 2,714.00 2,715.00 84 Jul-17 2,632.00 2,634.00 66 Aug-17 2,583.00 2,585.00 59 Sep-17 2,563.00 2,565.00 57 Nov-17 2,562.00 2,562.00 54 Jan-18 2,590.00 2,591.00 54 Mar-18 2,590.00 2,596.00 49 May-18 2,585.00 2,590.00 46 Jul-18 2,577.00 2,580.00 40 Sep-18 2,564.00 2,569.00 44 Nov-18 2,555.00 2,560.00 38 Jan-19 2,555.00 - - Mar-19 2,555.00 - -  Just like what happen for April shipments. Some players got short and didnt cover back, so they paid up. FOB shipments May position also high. Sellers are holding on from selling. They know ppl need to buy |
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Apr 6 2017, 06:27 PM
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#3
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Junior Member
57 posts Joined: Dec 2009
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not possible by just looking at bmd. it's more on physical side.
comparing the spread between Apr and May now, It's about rm100. logically, a buyer that wants oil now will try to buy May.. cuz its much much much cheaper. the trap is, they will bring a boat calling 1-7th shipment, as long as it's in May. If i'm the seller and i'm not covered properly, and i've sold so much Full May shipment while everyone is calling 1-7th... I'll be in trouble. That is why some have to cover outright at the high price. Doesn't happen much in the mkt.. this time around.. demand is quite good. supplies are also coming up better. By right BMD should be coming down... I still don't get why the rally yesterday... |
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Apr 7 2017, 10:07 AM
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#4
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57 posts Joined: Dec 2009
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QUOTE(good2shares @ Apr 6 2017, 09:43 PM) Oh! I see. Have to llok from physical point of view. Again, thanks for your valuanle input. No worries...A spread guru did mentioned that study of COT and OI could help to see more clear about position hold by traders. But BMD seem do not provide COT info and it is not easy to just look on OI itself for conclusion. whats COT btw. I stumbled in this tread by chance.. and I'm happy to be learning from you guys as well  |
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Apr 7 2017, 05:11 PM
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#5
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57 posts Joined: Dec 2009
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I went before. As usual, not much details , need to sign up for his class and you will be able to understand more.
His style of trading is not for everyone. Anyhow, should go and participate just to hear what they have to offer. |
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Apr 7 2017, 05:35 PM
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#6
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Junior Member
57 posts Joined: Dec 2009
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No one can predict this volatile FCPO . Everyone can give you an opinion, but no one will tell you what they made/ or loss.
In my opinion. FCPO is still a commodity underlying contract. You can't trade it solely based on technical. It just won't work. Fundamentals and technical plays a part in it. I would be wrong.. but thats why i'm here to find out more about it |
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