From what I know, the most realistic scenario is the man portable SAM hits the engine pod of the plane, setting it on fire since it has big heat signature. Then the plane will go down semi intact with one burning engine on the right. The impact will do the rest for the destruction of the vehicle and subsequent explosion. 

The anime shows that missile slammed into the fuselage, which lead to a massive gaping hole that results in decompression which will disintegrate the plane mid-air but not in dramatic fireball fashion like the anime. The plane will break up in mid air and pieces fall to earth, some will explode on impact with ground.

This is just my opinion though.

bro level -9999

but its not him!!

Better not create anime for Heavens Feel. Damn depressing. All endings are kinda depressing, even the good one Shiro have to live on with a puppet body made for him by a *good puppet magician who received sealing designation* (I guess typemoon fans would know who ) But regardless of all different routes, Gil didn't even get serious for once, unless you have to count in Hollow Ataraxia..

Then Hang Jebat would be Berserker.

... and imagine instead of screaming "EKUSUKARIBAAAA", she screams "TAMIINNG---SARRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII---"

... Mother of god. 

lol i think they photoshop this from the original pose I saw here few days ago:
http://www.animepaper.net/art/232830/untitled-8

but if so, that is one great photoshopping