Surprise
July 30 (rumors)--Okay, I'm gonna take a few things back. Trying to read the tea leaves in Japan about what's coming and when is always difficult. All the disruption that's occurred due to the March 11th quake has just made it harder to make sense of some of the bits and pieces that do leak. Some suppliers have changed, some manufacturing has been moved around a bit (some mounts now made in Malaysia, for instance), so the knowledge of various sources has also changed a bit, too. I lost one source and gained a new one. Coupled with hectic and changing management decisions, I've gotten quite a bit of conflicting information in the past few months.

Basically, the crowd reading this site is interested in five cameras: the expected new Nikon mirrorless, and the replacements for the D300s, D700, D3s, and D3h. I believe I've called some of this wrong, so I'm now going to try to correct my predictions:

    D700 replacement: August 24 announce, October delivery.
    D3s replacement (D4): August 24 announce, December delivery to NPS pros.
    Nikon mirrorless: January CES announce, February delivery.
    D300s replacement: February announce, delivery shortly thereafter.
    D3x replacement: not predictable at the moment, but late 2012 seems to be the earliest plausible possibility.

Yeah, I'm a bit surprised, too. Do I have 100% confidence in those five statements? No. But I have more confidence in them than I do my last prediction. I do have near 100% confidence that we've got two more DSLRs coming in 2011, though, and that one of them is the D4. It's been that other product that's been pesky to pin down. But one of my Japanese friends let something slip that has reversed my original thought (D300s replacement in August).

In many ways, that makes sense. The successful D7000 has taken pressure off producing a D400 (or is it D8000 now?), and announcing a pair of next generation FX bodies together has more punch than the FX/DX combo, plus it finally addresses the perceived 5DII gap (with Sony now about to open a DX gap, though; see below).

There's no real pressure on Nikon to launch the mirrorless product, and I believe they'll try to make a splash (as will Canon) at CES in January, where they have two booths and are rumored to be lobbying to change to a larger presence. It's a consumer product, after all, and that's a perfect launch forum for it, especially with the PMA trade show being right next door this year. A D300s successor in early 2012 and a D3x followup at the end of the year puts them back at about their yearly 3 serious cameras rate, which they fell dramatically off of in 2010 (2; maybe they were counting the P7000 ;~).

Okay, so my predictions have wobbled back and forth across the highway like a drunken driver. Let's hope I don't crash.

Meanwhile, the August 23/24 dates are starting to look like a freeway pileup of their own. Sony will be announcing two APS DSLRs (including their A77 competitor to the D300s, and rumored to be 24mp), two NEX models, three NEX lenses, at least two Alpha lenses, and a new fast focusing adapter for Alpha lenses on NEX cameras (incorporates phase detect).

As Nikon Rumors has suggested, Nikon will preceed their DSLR announcement with Coolpix announcements, including a GPS and tilt screen equipped P7100 followup to the P7000, kicking off a new line of rugged and waterproof Coolpix, and their third attempt to make a Coolpix with a projector stick in the market (not).

Mirrorless - Technically means all cameras without the mirror assembly in a traditional dslr whereby a mirror/prism reflects light/image coming in through the lens and up the viewfinder. But in camera geek context, mirrorless means all mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras including micro four thirds, sony NEX system, Pentax Q-system and all the upcoming stuff. Sometimes, even non-interchangeable cameras like the Fuji X100 and Leica X1 are categorized as such

M43 - Micro Four Third system which is a consortium led by Panasonic and Olympus. Some other makers that haven't launched a product such as Fuji and Sigma is also part of this consortium. All lens and camera bodies with the micro four third logo fits with each other regardless of the maker.