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 Ivory Property-Worth a look, Ivory Property-Worth a look

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param124
post Oct 24 2011, 08:13 PM

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QUOTE(taxpayer @ Sep 20 2011, 10:53 PM)
Heard that they will have to abondon the Bayan Mutiara development as they do have sufficient capital to develop it. It seems that they even outbidded SP Setia by paying a comically high premium for it.A director of SP Setia was laughing when he told me that. God knows where they on earth they can find the money for the 10% down payment (around 25 -30 mil) when they have less than 5 mil of cash in their balance sheet(a dangerously low level). Only a fool will lent them more money when their debt to equity ratio is alredy more than one. This acquistion is nothing more than a reckless act.
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Firstly I think its a good stock. They won the bid YES they bid high but margins are crazy... high at circa 40%...Secondly based on their latest 2Q2011 their cash level is at RM11m not RM5m...Downpayment for land in Penang plus with govenrment tender Im sure there are bankers lining up to fund them....It be pricey but there will be takers to back them up in terms of financing...Secondly their debt level is circa RM150~160m and Equity is at RM210m...how does this make their gearing above 1.0x? (160/210=0.8x)

Simply pakai tembak only....anyways agreed that they have been declining in profits but this company do have a track record in penang which is fairly good. I hope to see a good turnaround over the next 2-3Q's...Worth a look I would!

This post has been edited by param124: Oct 24 2011, 08:14 PM
param124
post Nov 10 2011, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(taxpayer @ Nov 4 2011, 01:00 AM)
Bankers are lining up to finance them? you are simply an ignorant fool who doesnt know anything about corporate finance 101. A loan for the purchase of the land 1.2 billion will simply raise their gearing close to 10. Very few profitable listed companies in Malaysia have gearings above 3 anyway and never heard of any profitable company with gearing above 5 we are now in a crowded property market and global economic outlook. Banks are more likely to do the exact opposite , risk aversion and avoid companies with gearing above 1. 11 m in cash is nothing to shout about for a mainboard comapny. It is dangerously low. Dont forget theay they drew down 60 mil of loans alone last quarter and still has such a pathetic level of cash. They are doing exactly what Greece is doing, using fresh borrwoings to pay back existing borrowing and this is nothing but an impressive pyramid scheme. They have to pay back almost the same amount next quarter. SP Setia and Mah Sing has cash in the hundereds of millions at least.

Another simple observation. It has been more than three months since they won the bid but yet no agreement has been signed yet. SP Setia and Mah Sing could have easily paid the 120 mil downpayment with cash and sign the agreement starightaway but this company dont even 10% of that in cash
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For a person who knows alot about CF you should also know contracts are not given if the company if they/Ivory did not have means/plans on how to finance this project. For a person who knows alot about CF you should also know that an SPV vehicle can be set up for this particular project finance to raise cash by ring fencing future proceeds of this development. For a person who knows alot you probably should have known that most of the trade secrets are not told in then open and most information pertaining to this is not fully available yet. So don't shoot things down so soon. Be optimistic. To much pessimism in the market at the moment. By the way, I doubt the payment is due all in one go plus is part of government tender so payments will be made in stages/progress. Plus 35 acres is to be reclaimed so as far as my limited knowledge goes, payment of this usually will be in terms of part of the reclaimed land (such as Benalec which takes payment in terms of land reclaimed)

I don't know about 10% payment etc upfront. Anyways have you looked into their loan docs to see that they need to pay 10% etc for the downpayment? Where is it stated? Secondly, yes agreed MSGB and SPSB would have easily paid the amount (if needed) but where is it stated state government seeking RM120mm down payment? If you were observant you would realise that property developers are location centric thats why you don't see MSGB and SPSB doing much/any projects in penang or other states. Their strong hold is KL/S'gor as they know what the market is over here and they are undoubtedly the champions here. Penang on the other hand is a strong hold for E&O (Sime Darby). Why did'nt E&O win is the BIG QUESTION?

Don't sound like there are only 2 property players in the country brother.

Btw just sharing my thoughts and opinion. I know you(taxpayer) sit and talk to all big boys but that does'nt mean you discount other people point of view.

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CF guy (taxpayer), your big friends never tell you ah that Ivory suspended? Looks like you may find out solution for your financing issue that Ivory can never get tomorrow....

This post has been edited by param124: Nov 10 2011, 11:51 PM
param124
post Nov 11 2011, 12:15 AM

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QUOTE(taxpayer @ Nov 10 2011, 11:49 PM)
Hmmm you are suggesting they set up a Speacial Purpose Vehicle (SPV) so that everthing from this land deal go off balance sheet . It is definently convenient for them to sugarcoat their disastorous balance sheet now. However, I am sorry to inform you that Ivory is too small for that. No one will take the SPV of a small company like Ivory seriously as the parent company also has to be credible and Ivory has yet to establish that (far from it in fact). SPV is only viable for the big boys like investment banks and Enron which ultimately collpased due to its off balance sheet liabilities.

10% downpayment is quite standard for all land and property deals and I doubt the cash strapped Penang state government will be in any position to give them any more leeway. elections are coming sir. Penang state gov preaches CAT all the time so it will be catastrophic for them to keep trade secrets
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Boss its been done before. I dont want to quote example as I feel you have not quoted facts to date and just spoken through thin air. Anyways a JV vehicle Co would work and would certain boost Ivory upwards. Disastrous balance sheet? why do you say that? There are some weak points (i agree with you) but borrowings is not all bad just better way to increase returns

If they want they land to be develop and they gave the contract to Ivory dude i'm sure there are arrangements made not necessary public UNTIL TIME IS RIGHT as things are still being finalise. Where did you see Penang is cash strapped? They have been running a surplus pass few years --> Pls google! Anyways elections you don't use state cash to run in it! Sir MACC mari Sir..hehe

This post has been edited by param124: Nov 11 2011, 12:16 AM

 

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