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 REIT V2, Real Estate Investment Trust

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groggy
post Oct 27 2010, 11:44 PM

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QUOTE(veilside2010 @ Oct 27 2010, 09:57 PM)
Let say I have RM100,000 ~ I invest all in Starreit... dividend 7%
then every year can get RM7,000 x 2 = RM14,000 per year ??
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7% per annum how to get 14,000? rclxub.gif
groggy
post Oct 29 2010, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(Maxsimax @ Oct 29 2010, 08:57 AM)
For REITs investor, a five-year exemption from withholding tax will be implemented soon under the Government's new initiative to encourage growth of the sector. However, the date for the implementation is yet to be announced. Well, think will be implemented by end of next year? hmm.gif , since the current 10% policy will expire by end of 2011.

May refer to the website below for more details.
http://www.pemandu.gov.my/index.php?option...emid=83&lang=en

Plus, more REITs will be announced soon, hope more thorough research and incentives would be given to revitalize this sector ^^
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I didn't know the REITs 10% policy is not a permanent policy? that means if come next year it is not renewed, all REITs revert to company tax? unless a new 100% waiver takes effect?
groggy
post Oct 29 2010, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(asambuffett @ Oct 29 2010, 05:09 PM)
it should  biggrin.gif

95% of my smf is used to buy Reits...

my financing is about 4.7% pa.

im not targeting the div...im targeting the nav increase year by year n see what it will become in 20 years or when superbull comes. rclxms.gif
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Has it been confirmed that NAV will increase year by year? if assets with lower NAV are injected into existing reits. might pull down the NAV?
groggy
post Oct 30 2010, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 30 2010, 10:28 AM)
There is no such thing of asset with lower NAV.

NAV = Net asset value + cash

If you want to inject/acquire new properties, what do you do?
Buy
Buy need cash.

If you use the Rm1 mil to buy RM1 mil worth of asset, the NAV still remain the same at Rm1 mil
NAV will be lower with below condition

1. NAV only will be diluted if you use Rm1 mil to buy a Rm900K properties.

2. Issue new share at a price below existing NAV

3. Company make a loss

4. Properties revaluation resulted in a loss.
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Thanks. I am looking at no.3 which is the most likely lower NAV scenario. New shares will be issued at lower than existing NAV when market price is trading below NAV. Yep, after the new acquisition, NAV will be pulled down.
groggy
post Nov 1 2010, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(asambuffett @ Nov 1 2010, 05:14 PM)
if units price r below  NAV, theyll surely buy with cash/loan if they still have the room to increase their borrowings. That will keep the NAV still the same  smile.gif
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who are "they"? many reits still trading below NAV.
groggy
post Nov 2 2010, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(asambuffett @ Nov 2 2010, 05:41 PM)
they are any REITS.

they dun have to issue new shares to buy new properties, they can make term loans etc.

lets assume Qcapita market price rm1.03 and NAV is rm1.21. they want to buy a new property at rm50m.

so ... they can buy the property using loan of rm50m.

in the balance sheet, assets will be plus ~ rm50m and liability will also be plus ~ 50m too. This will results in NAV still maintain at same price @ rm1.21.
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They can just take on more liability to buy assets but they usually dun do 100% debt financing. Otherwise, their gearing will sky rocket. They will do mixture debt and equity financing.
groggy
post Nov 21 2010, 12:30 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 15 2010, 08:18 PM)
Just for sharing : Arreit having 100% fixed rate term loan. That means any increases in OPR will not affect its margin.

My frend there are no such thing as "sure going up" in investment. I never buy any stocks becos of "sure going up" . This is a very dangerous mentality in investment. To be frank i don really like my counter to surge up suddenly ... tat means i will be having headache looking for new target.
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Hi darkknight81,

Can you point me to where it is stated that their term loan is 100% fixed rate? And normally how long is the tenure of these term loans? How are they going to repay when due? Refinance again, I guess. You also say u r expecting 7k dividends and you only start to buy arreit this past 1 month and you just whack 400,000 shares? Wow! And you are just 29 yo? I am jealous. notworthy.gif
groggy
post Nov 25 2010, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 25 2010, 03:12 PM)
Don worry i beliv is due to Dato' Mani Usilapan one of the commitee member from properties investment has resigned recently. Maybe he sell off some of his arreit shares?

I beliv there might be some conflict in some of the future properties investment... hmm.gif
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Hi darkknight,

Why do you think it could be conflict in future investment? I have some arreit too. Should we worry?

Thanks

This post has been edited by groggy: Nov 25 2010, 10:04 PM
groggy
post Nov 26 2010, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Nov 25 2010, 10:46 PM)
worry?
sell to me la i buy from you at 75 sen okay laugh.gif
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i buy from u 76 sen rclxms.gif
groggy
post Dec 16 2010, 12:38 PM

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Why the step up rate only 5% in 5 years. That means 1% per year only. Not attractive to me. Opinions?
groggy
post Dec 16 2010, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(vergil90 @ Dec 16 2010, 01:53 PM)
trade off with long term stability, 15 yrs agreement which u don't scare tenant run away. for me it's the most stable reit - low risk - low return - long term holding hope for share appreciation. i believe it will rise to RM 1 in 3 to 5 yrs time ( if u don't mind holding)
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The risk of lessees going under, is it high? Long term lease is useless if they go bankrupt.

groggy
post Dec 16 2010, 04:45 PM

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The report says even the 6.89 cents is not assured. Could be lower. If so, yield might go under 7%, still worth to invest?
groggy
post Dec 16 2010, 08:45 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 16 2010, 05:42 PM)
There is no universal standard for worth.  icon_rolleyes.gif
It depends on individual.

Compared to FD 3.0%, someone can say 7% is worth, doubling.
Compared to some ordinary stocks out there that can gain 10-15%, then someone can say it is not worth.
If market bull run, others stock achieved 20-30%, then someone can say it is not worth.
If market crash, other stocks plunging resulted losses across, while Stareit is holding up due to 7% yield, then people may say, magnificent. 

For sure, it is a projection, no one dare to guarantee anything.
Yes, if could be lower due to various reason.
Yield is about price you paid/bought, so if the DPU is lower than 6.89 cents, while there is other alternatives offer 8% yield, then price of the reit may go lower for adjustment comparatively.

That's why Stareit is not traded at Rm1.00 or near its NAV. Market is self-adjustment on itself.

But to be fair, Stareit achieved this yield without/little borrowing or gearing. While most reit is under some gearing range from 25-40%.
If they want to achieve 8% yield, geared up a bit, then it is achievable. My view only.

Don't get me wrong, I don't recommend whether Stareit is good or not, worth or not worth.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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At rm0.88, will you buy some for yourself? tongue.gif Eventhough gearing is low, it might remain low as YTL is conservative.


Added on December 16, 2010, 9:07 pmOne thing I am confused is that in the report, it is stated that

"Actual distributable income after tax for FY2011 is expected to be significantly different from
the above in view that the Proposed Acquisitions are expected to complete towards the end of
FY2011."

How can it be "significantly different" when all the lease payments/rental revenues are known beforehand? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by groggy: Dec 16 2010, 09:07 PM
groggy
post Dec 16 2010, 11:26 PM

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I wonder why they don't do a full year projection assuming all properties are up and running. That would be more useful to see what's the actual yield is like after acquistion.
groggy
post Dec 16 2010, 11:35 PM

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oh ok, now I get it, it means for coming year, still have partial here and there, but FY 2012 onwards should be 6.89 cts barring further acquistions, am I right? Thx
groggy
post Feb 15 2011, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 14 2011, 01:01 AM)
The last 3 quarters divvi goes as: 2 sen, 1.79 sen, and now 1.67 sen.
I thought after injection of those new properties, there is a chance to move back to 2 sen within 2 quarters after the dilution effect. Looks like it's going to take more time now. Anyway, I'm fine with it actually. Although it can't go back to previous yield of 8+%, as long as it can stay above 7.5%, I'm happy to hold it.  nod.gif
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I thought the purchase of selayang Mall and Dana is supposed to be yield accretive? How come it decreases the EPU/DPU? If this is the case, they should not have purchased the new properties.
groggy
post Feb 15 2011, 10:53 PM

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QUOTE(WagnerK @ Feb 15 2011, 01:51 PM)
A factor that is easily overlooked in the reduction of EPU and DPU of ARREIT in Q3 and Q4 is the upward revision of manager fees and trustee fees in mid-June 2010.. This may not seem significant, but manager fees and trustee fees have collectively increased by about RM405k in Q3 and Q4 respectively when compared to Q2 before the revision was done.. This shaves off about 0.7 cents per unit from ARREIT’s EPU..

Now for some meaningful comparison, lets adjust Q4 2010 for this upward revision of manager & trustee fees of approximately RM405k and the one-off corporate exercise expense of RM675k.. This would make the adjusted EPU to be about 1.951 cents per unit for Q4 2010 with 573 million units in circulation.. The realized EPU for Q1 2010 is 1.958 cents per unit with 431 million units in circulation..

Looking above, the dilution in EPU due to the acquisitions in May 2010 would certainly seem so small now that you may actually choose to wonder if there’s any..  smile.gif
Of course, we tend to look back at the rather good things in life  smile.gif – such as  ARREIT’s 1.9997 cents distribution with an EPU of 2.1050 cents for Q2 2010.. However, we need to consider the fact that it recognized proceeds from compulsory acquisition of land by the gov’t of RM2m in the income statement.. Stripping this one-off proceeds of RM2m, EPU would be only 1.753 cents per unit..

So, truth be said, ARREIT’s EPU has actually increased from Q2 to Q3 & Q4 when the one-off items are taken off..
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Hi Wagnerk,

Thanks for yr analysis. It was very helpful to me.

One more thing, can revaluation surplus from properties be distributed out as dividends???
groggy
post Apr 30 2011, 09:02 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 30 2011, 01:08 AM)
Every reit won't grow until rental revision become higher.
It is same across.

We see Axreit (or any other reit) distribution grow mainly because of properties portfolio expansion, not because the properties rental become higher (although some did due to rental revision, or new lease) or through higher gearing than previously.

Atrium portfolio staying the same since its first day of listing, so you don't see the distribution grow.

Same with Stareit (before the rationalisation proposal).

Let analyse why sell :

1. Higher interest rate, lead to higher lending/gearing cost of the reit, dragging down the distribution.
2. Difficult of getting tenant after old lease expired, distribution going down. Atrium once lose the tenant on one of its properties, lead to severe distribution going down, whereby drag down the price to 60~70 cents.
3. Properties sector is going to be in bad shape across.
4. Have better opportunities with others by utilising the money proceeded from the sold reit, which yield better than 6-7% yield.
5. Higher FD rate. Reit doesn't provide significant different in yield with FD.

Reit is never the same with ordinary stock whereby profit and dividend can go higher and higher depended how much the company bring in the business, while reit cannot, you have 1 property, the most you can have 1 tenant for the whole property.


Added on April 30, 2011, 1:13 am

Until or if the interest rate increase affect the refinancing cost or borrowing cost which is not with fixed rate.

Most borrowing under reit is secured with fixed rate for short medium tenure. So until new refinancing cycle take place, we don't see much impact on the EPS eventually DPU.

But interest rate increase mean higher FD rate, which in turn closing the gap between reit yield and FD rate, which make reit less as attractive as before.
But I don't see FD rate is going to increase >3.5-4% for near future even 2-3 years down the road. Just my view though, I could be wrong.
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Point no.3 that property going to be in bad shape is anybody's guess. Point no. 4 may i know which other vehicle yield better than 6 to 7% yield? FD rate still very low compared to REITs, double the yield.

Point about REITs dividend can't go higher works both way. On the downside, it usually not as risky as stocks cos stocks can go to losses. REITs can too if too highly geared and economy turns real bad but barring that, it gives stability. In return, it gives up some rewards.


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