If your friend owe someone else a lot of money by his own mistake, will you help him? I guess it is pretty logical for Germany not to help them. They dont gain anything from them, Greece is not their main export country, a great downfall of Greece does not affect Germany by any large scale, besides bad news from all these is in favor of Germany, as cheap Euro is helping their export, which is what they need right now.

As long as these Greece problem haven't solve the EUR will give back every gain he had.

Long, there is only few reason to long, *long on support for retrace or USA to screw up.

No, as I said, it is either u long for small retrace or USA have some really bad news that is far worst than Greece problem. There are little reason to long Euro now.

But shorting here risky too, any retrace or small good news about Greece, Euro can shoot up 50-100pips

ur mini Greece is not gonna kill Euro as a whole. Greece is not big enough.

This post has been edited by billytong: Mar 24 2010, 07:12 PM

U dont need to do that, just treat ur demo as REAL as it is. Some broker like Oanda allow u to add or minus the demo fund acc size to fit ur capability.

Start treating the demo as real acc, if the trader cannot change his mentality on this simple thing. he cannot handle the real acc. Reward/ Risk ratio play a very very important factor of winning.

Well I use to be like him, burn a small acc 800 USD down to 500USD, but then decided to hit the demo for a full year. if one want to try something new, try it on demo. It makes no sense to loose money for trial and error.

Been doing good, the last euro shorts is a bit regret to take out too early as i didnt expect it drop below 3500. *may be at most 3460s is what i think it would go. But right now is all down here. Well in forex anything is possible. Hence SL is very ur best friend. I have been used to using SL @ BE, getting stop out is much better than going -ve IMO. If u dont lose a cent, how u lose money at the end of the day? Dont take huge loss, take small losses. it is best to loose the whole opportunity then losing huge amount of money.

Oanda is decent for its spread during non news hours, spreading opening during news is ok if u ask me, trading news is extremely risky business anyway. Unless u are insider who know the news b4 it release there is no way one can accurately predict news. Besides, the market can perceive it differently, there are enough news where the market move opposite of what it should move. You try to predict that base on your economic knowledge? I had give up long ago

This post has been edited by billytong: Mar 25 2010, 06:00 PM

Think about the money u save for each entry trade and exit trade, u save 1pip on each action u did.

not sure if it is right to quote u, but I mean, seriously guys dont bother about the TT charges when they save u 1 pip every trade due to tighter spread

Very very beautiful day... No brainer short

btw, the gap is a overexcited trader jumping in buying the big Sunday news. Lets not forget, We got PIIGS for Euro. one is down. 4 more to go.

for EUR/USD, the trend is always bear since the beginning of year 2010.

The only reason to long euro is for counter trend retracement, infact it is a far more safer to do it only right after a 150-200pips drop. Otherwise it is only short during regular time until the Europe fundamental change drastically. The euro has been ranging 200pips range every week. It is shifting its range from 1.32-1.34 to 1.31-1.33 now.

Good luck.

btw, tonight mid-night(or tomorrow) is FOMC rate decision. Please manage your risk. The peeps in FOMC can say anything to boost USD.

This post has been edited by billytong: Apr 28 2010, 03:55 PM

Tbh I have noidea which part you are saying.

IMO, it is best to reduce exposed risk, as these guys can turn the table upside down easily. Try to read whats in their mind and their plans is insanity.

not exactly hard at least for EU, just short every rises, the next min, ur position turned black.

had made a killing on all these fall. totally like it

This post has been edited by billytong: May 5 2010, 08:28 PM

Just trade with what your own eyes see. Do not try to predict. As far as what I see now, trend is still down for EU. If you want to long, only long when EU makes the lowest point and only when it stop there. Otherwise short. Makes sure all ur trades comes with tight stops loss @ appropriate levels.

this is why I said use tight stops, best is to set it @ BE+1-10pips. so you lose nothing if it bounce up sharply. ECB press conference can say otherwise. Euro is already on huge over selling area. Any surprise good news can bump this pair up 100-200pips easily & not any of us know what those ECB guys are thinking. We cannot read their minds.

Anyway, I am not into trading today. The EU pair is a wasted mess now. There is no rise to short safety.... how to short? lol then follow by ECB thing. ewww.

This post has been edited by billytong: May 6 2010, 03:08 PM

Intervention with cash cannot do much, if the entire market sit on the same boat trying to ride against you, nothing can stop it. Central bank can only do as much as they could to move a bit and possibly use verbal intervention tell the market about their "future intentions". All these surprises can easily move this the market 100-200pips easily. Do you think I want to try to read their mind? I dont.

When you are in a oversold region, any surprise good news is a big GOOD news. Thus you need to manage your risk accordingly as ur short are at this low.

Trading forex is not about how you predict the market, it is how to manage your trade plan/ how you manage ur risk. I do not think it is the right idea to short @ this low and have a huge SL like 50pips, because even a little retrancement can run over 50pips. why bother losing 50pips. We are not here to lose 50pips on shorts. especially @ this low.

This post has been edited by billytong: May 6 2010, 03:41 PM

thats right, what they can do is to provide some intervention (*like a seed to start a trend) and after effects of the currency direction is still entirely up to the market to decide. If the market choose to follow central bank, central bank will get their goal. If market choose to ignore, the central bank cannot anything as long as it is freely traded market.

It wont if the market decides to ignore, but it will if the market say "ok you are right about it". In this case you need to reduce your risk exposure.

yes

it is already happened, it is almost 200pips drop from the very bottom. Yest is a wild day, I think it will settle down a bit until NFP time, but there is no guaranty if it will move again this afternoon or not.

This post has been edited by billytong: May 7 2010, 02:20 PM

Just remain short Bias with be prepared/expect retracement if any.

I'll try to stay away from NFP tbh.

IMO, it is unlikely both of the currencies fail, because if both Eur/Dollar going freefall, the whole world will freefall. why? Because About 90% of the money is still in EUR+ USD. The EUR may be under pressure now but it wont go for a freefall like MYR in 1997. the EUR now is just like what you see USD in 2 years ago = under pressure, I think the fair value of Euro should be around these level.

Besides the much larger economy scale Germany are doing very good. You need to look at the +ve side of euro and weight them against the -ve and draw a conclusion from there. If Germany, France are like Greece, then I might starting to worry.

This post has been edited by billytong: May 8 2010, 06:21 PM