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 Stock Market V49, MARKET REBORN LIKE A TIGER ROAR !!!

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mazda626
post Feb 12 2010, 02:02 AM

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Dow 10,124.31 {+85.93} [+0.86%] - green rclxms.gif


David_Brent
post Feb 12 2010, 02:02 AM

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QUOTE(SeanST @ Feb 12 2010, 01:50 AM)
I think he's dreaming now... biggrin.gif
Anyway i found this article by Alex Lu, a remisier.
He talked about selling mother share and buy again with OR.
But he didn't mention on after selling mother, do we still hold the OR.
That's my confusion comes. In case after selling the mother share, will still have OR, i think best to do is to Sell the mother now, and convert the OR with just RM1.6+RM0.135 = RM1.735 something like that... cheaper than current market price RM1.92 lor... instant profit

Thursday, February 11, 2010
MAS- arbitraging opportunity
MAS is in the midst of completing a 1-for-1 Rights Issue at RM1.60 each. The ex-date of the Rights Issue was Feb 8, but the share price began to weaken ever since the Rights Issue was first announced on Dec 22. In early January, I had posted that MAS has broken the psychological RM3.00 level as well as the horizontal support of RM2.90 (go here).

Today is the start of trading of MAS-OR, the Rights entitlement. An investor who buys 1000 MAS-OR would be entitled to subscribe for 1000 MAS shares at RM1.60 each. We have seen heavy selling of MAS-OR in the market, prompted by existing shareholders' decision not to apply for their allotted entitlement under the Rights Issue. This may present an attractive opportunity for arbitraging profit for the existing shareholders, who can sell their shares in MAS at the present price of RM1.92 and then acquire back the same share via MAS-OR (presently trading at RM0.14 each) & then subscribing for the Rights Issue share at an all-in cost of RM1.74. Those who want to gain entry into MAS, may choose the cheaper route of buying the MAS-OR & then subscribing for the Rights Issue share, instead of buying the share directly from the market.

Chartwise, we can see that MAS has broken below its recent uptrend line,S1-S1 at RM2.40 and is hanging stubbornly at the horizontal support at RM1.90-2.00.
*
Wah!

Cut and Paste!

Thanks for the contribution...... whistling.gif

Most people already read this afternoon I think. icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Feb 12 2010, 02:06 AM
mazda626
post Feb 12 2010, 02:10 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Feb 12 2010, 02:02 AM)

Wah!
Most people already read this afternoon I think.  icon_rolleyes.gif

*
Wow MAS-OR making a news. Brave soul... notworthy.gif
David_Brent
post Feb 12 2010, 02:31 AM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Feb 12 2010, 12:16 AM)
Euro zone stopped short of aid measures for Greece.

Merkel is singing Pink's Funhouse. biggrin.gif

This used to be a funhouse
But now it's full of evil clowns
It's time to start the countdown
I'm gonna burn it down down down
I'm gonna burn it down
*
I think this is what you are referring to:

"EU nations offered no firm financial support for Greece and leaders deferred the issue until March, saying they would seek advice from the International Monetary Fund for an assessment of Greece's situation."

They were always going to side-step this as they will with the rest of the problem economies....


fryguy14us
post Feb 12 2010, 03:06 AM

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say we buy 2000 mas-or.....but we only can only afford to buy/subscribe 1000 mas shares....then how??
mopster
post Feb 12 2010, 04:03 AM

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QUOTE(fryguy14us @ Feb 12 2010, 03:06 AM)
say we buy 2000 mas-or.....but we only can only afford to buy/subscribe 1000 mas shares....then how??
*
QUOTE
~also, since the ratio is 1:1 .. if someone bought 50,000 OR, but can only afford to buy 10,000 MAS... means the remaining 40,000 OR becomes toilet paper after OR trading period is over


ie. sell the balance before the OR expires or it will become toilet paper..


Added on

Is the Bull back ??? DJ almost went past SMA-50, 10k seems like a support now... or this cycle will repeat for each of the remaining EU country ? laugh.gif Portugal, Spain, Ireland, UK... hehehe

anyway € is going down the drain now.. bailout more countries and then we can go makan angin in Europe cheap cheap... laugh.gif
looks like investors are buying AUD and dumping EUR now... AUD up so much... hmm.gif

off topic liao.. go into forex already..

This post has been edited by mopster: Feb 12 2010, 04:14 AM
kanelkc
post Feb 12 2010, 06:27 AM

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QUOTE(SeanST @ Feb 12 2010, 01:50 AM)
I think he's dreaming now... biggrin.gif
Anyway i found this article by Alex Lu, a remisier.
He talked about selling mother share and buy again with OR.
But he didn't mention on after selling mother, do we still hold the OR.
That's my confusion comes. In case after selling the mother share, will still have OR, i think best to do is to Sell the mother now, and convert the OR with just RM1.6+RM0.135 = RM1.735 something like that... cheaper than current market price RM1.92 lor... instant profit

Thursday, February 11, 2010
MAS- arbitraging opportunity
MAS is in the midst of completing a 1-for-1 Rights Issue at RM1.60 each. The ex-date of the Rights Issue was Feb 8, but the share price began to weaken ever since the Rights Issue was first announced on Dec 22. In early January, I had posted that MAS has broken the psychological RM3.00 level as well as the horizontal support of RM2.90 (go here).

Today is the start of trading of MAS-OR, the Rights entitlement. An investor who buys 1000 MAS-OR would be entitled to subscribe for 1000 MAS shares at RM1.60 each. We have seen heavy selling of MAS-OR in the market, prompted by existing shareholders' decision not to apply for their allotted entitlement under the Rights Issue. This may present an attractive opportunity for arbitraging profit for the existing shareholders, who can sell their shares in MAS at the present price of RM1.92 and then acquire back the same share via MAS-OR (presently trading at RM0.14 each) & then subscribing for the Rights Issue share at an all-in cost of RM1.74. Those who want to gain entry into MAS, may choose the cheaper route of buying the MAS-OR & then subscribing for the Rights Issue share, instead of buying the share directly from the market.

Chartwise, we can see that MAS has broken below its recent uptrend line,S1-S1 at RM2.40 and is hanging stubbornly at the horizontal support at RM1.90-2.00.
*
chart can guarantees it wont drop below 1.9 ???
after you buy the OR what if the mother share go down to 1.8 ? buy at yr own risk. existing share owner they dun want to buy the right share keep selling the OR and the mother share at lowest price.
danmooncake
post Feb 12 2010, 07:44 AM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Feb 12 2010, 04:03 AM)
ie. sell the balance before the OR expires or it will become toilet paper..


Added on

Is the Bull back ???  DJ almost went past SMA-50, 10k seems like a support now... or this cycle will repeat for each of the remaining EU country ? laugh.gif Portugal, Spain, Ireland, UK... hehehe

anyway € is going down the drain now.. bailout more countries and then we can go makan angin in Europe cheap cheap...  laugh.gif
looks like investors are buying AUD and dumping EUR now... AUD up so much... hmm.gif

off topic liao.. go into forex already..
*
What?? No, DJ needs about 250 points to even touch 50MA currently near 10400.
Bull isn't back. Strong resistance and head winds tomorrow and next week.

Better prep for bears to attack again. Sell into this rally is the name of this game. nod.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 12 2010, 07:44 AM
SKY 1809
post Feb 12 2010, 07:50 AM

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Haha,

Those who sold MAS Mother shares now and subscribe to rights could be " trapped "

I could see the right issue to be very successful if they do that ( sold the mother shares ) , or odeli happening as reported in Business Times ?

Those big local funds would be happily " makan" the cheap mother shares now and control them.

Once the OR trading is approaching the final days, the Mother share price would start to surge.

Again, people would rush to buy the OR and subscribe happily.

Mother share price would continue to go up until the very last day for investors to subscribe.

THEN THE OBJECTIVE OF MAS RIGHT ISSUE IS SUCCESSFULLY MET.

THAT is the time for those who sold the mother shares now to get regretted for selling too low.

Of course this is my own conspiracy theory. Could be 100% wrong, basing on Axiata and Maybank's experiences.

Seek all opinions from the experts you can find.

I am Not responsible for any losses if you follow my conspiracy theory.

Best is to sit back and see how the show develops. biggrin.gif

Good Luck to all.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 12 2010, 08:43 AM
chyaw
post Feb 12 2010, 08:05 AM

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About this MAS-OR thing, I think if you're investor, you should not touch it. If you already in it and intend to keep MAS as part of your portfolio, then it is better to dump all your MAS and convert OR back to MAS later (do something is better than do nothing in this case).
If you're traders, playing MAS-OR is fun especially it only got 6 more working days life left. brows.gif And good luck.
GregPG01
post Feb 12 2010, 08:05 AM

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If MAS goes down so badly, who will fork out Rm1.60 to convert? They rather leave the OR become toilet paper.


Added on February 12, 2010, 8:08 amMore on MAS-OR this morning --> http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-ne...g-exercise.html

This post has been edited by GregPG01: Feb 12 2010, 08:10 AM
sopol
post Feb 12 2010, 08:11 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 12 2010, 07:50 AM)
Haha,

Those who sold MAS Mother shares now and subscribe to rights could be " trapped "

I could see the right issue  to be very successful if they do that ( sold the mother shares ) , or odeli happening as reported in Business Times ?

Those big local funds would be happily " makan"  the cheap mother shares  now and control them.

Once the OR trading is approaching the final days, the Mother share price would start to surge.

Again, people would rush to buy the OR and subscribe happily.

Mother share price would continue to go up until the very last day for investors to subscribe.

Then that is the time for those who sold the mother shares now to get regretted for selling too low.

Of course this is my own conspiracy theory. Could be 100% wrong basing on Axiata and Maybank's  experiences.

I am Not responsible for any losses if you follow my conspiracy theory.

Best is to  sit back and see how  the show develops. biggrin.gif

Good Luck to all.
*
wonder why my thinking was like you. as far as MAS RI is concerned, all have been underwritten by major shareholders Khazanah, PMB and investment banks Maybank IB, CIMB, RHB under an underwriting arrangement. means that MAS is guaranteed and secured for the rm1.60 RI.

SKY..one more counter which shared the same trend as axiata and maybank...it's misc. those who sold misc during the trading period of OR must regretted like hell...ha.ha.ha..
GregPG01
post Feb 12 2010, 08:13 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 12 2010, 07:50 AM)
Haha,

Those who sold MAS Mother shares now and subscribe to rights could be " trapped "

I could see the right issue  to be very successful if they do that ( sold the mother shares ) , or odeli happening as reported in Business Times ?

Those big local funds would be happily " makan"  the cheap mother shares  now and control them.

Once the OR trading is approaching the final days, the Mother share price would start to surge.

Again, people would rush to buy the OR and subscribe happily.

Mother share price would continue to go up until the very last day for investors to subscribe.

THEN THE OBJECTIVE OF MAS RIGHT ISSUE IS SUCCESSFUL  MET.

THAT  is the time for those who sold the mother shares now to get regretted for selling too low.

Of course this is my own conspiracy theory. Could be 100% wrong,  basing on Axiata and Maybank's  experiences.

Seek all opinions from the experts you can find.

I am Not responsible for any losses if you follow my conspiracy theory.

Best is to  sit back and see how  the show develops. biggrin.gif

Good Luck to all.
*
Sky,

Based on your conspiracy theory, those who sell the mother now and get the rights can just top Rm1.60 to get back the mother share at the end of the day...they will still be happy cause their price is effectively lower....Of course provided your initial cost is not too high la.


SKY 1809
post Feb 12 2010, 08:18 AM

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QUOTE(GregPG01 @ Feb 12 2010, 08:13 AM)
Sky,

Based on your conspiracy theory, those who sell the mother now and get the rights can just top Rm1.60 to get back the mother share at the end of the day...they will still be happy cause their price is effectively lower....Of course provided your initial cost is not too high la.
*
Can you sell before you get back the right issue share ( in time to sell at the right price on the very last day of subscription ) ?

Another Greece could surface at that moment when you have the right issue shares . biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 12 2010, 08:26 AM
protonw
post Feb 12 2010, 08:24 AM

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I cannot make order to M2u:-

Message: "The market is closed for the day. Please check and view your orders again in the next trading session. Would you like to proceed?"

Today share market close? laugh.gif

What holiday huh? rclxub.gif

But I have no problem with Jupiter.... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by protonw: Feb 12 2010, 08:25 AM
darkknight81
post Feb 12 2010, 08:24 AM

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MAS is totally out from my consideration. For trading then should be alright as it is one of the GLC counters.
SKY 1809
post Feb 12 2010, 08:29 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Feb 12 2010, 08:24 AM)
MAS is totally out from my consideration. For trading then should be alright as it is one of the GLC counters.
*
My conspiracy theory might work for GLC counters only.

Not applicable to the rest ( non GLC ) . biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Feb 12 2010, 08:29 AM
VyvernS
post Feb 12 2010, 08:29 AM

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Wah....one night so much on the MAS-OR... laugh.gif
Anyway, my 13.5 sen 200 lots at 4.44pm did not match, so I am not praying hard about it. tongue.gif

However, for those who have, and so far i have read, can conclude the following:

1. If you do not have MAS shares currently, then buying/trading in MAS share and MAS-OR and MAS-PA is up to you. Own risk.

2. If you did have MAS shares prior to the current exercise, you have a few choices:
a. Keep MAS shares, don't subscribe to MAS-OR, so you lose if mother share price go down and your OR become toilet paper.
b. Sell MAS shares @ 1.9x, don't subscribe to MAS-OR, not a very good situation as you lose MAS-OR becoming toilet paper and selling MAS shares at lower price than you had bought it.
c. Keep MAS shares, and subscribe to MAS-OR. Of course you will need to 1.60 per share to subscribe for MAS-OR. You will win in the long run if MAS mothershare price go up higher than the average buy price of your total shares.
d. Sell MAS share @ 1.9x and subscribe to MAS-OR, dat would "earn" you some bucks. This would work as long as the mothershare did not fall below 1.60. I think this has been extensively reviewed in previous posts.

3. If you bought since yesterday, either MAS mothershare or MAS-OR, then hope for the best that the prices recover above your buy price. Mothershare still ok, if you willing to hold and wait long. MAS-OR....pray hard lah.....Got until 22/2 before worth $0.

At #2, i may have missed a few other choices, do add in if anybody feels so.

Cheers & happy trading today! biggrin.gif

SKY 1809
post Feb 12 2010, 08:33 AM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ Feb 12 2010, 08:29 AM)
Wah....one night so much on the MAS-OR... laugh.gif
Anyway, my 13.5 sen 200 lots at 4.44pm did not match, so I am not praying hard about it. tongue.gif

However, for those who have, and so far i have read, can conclude the following:

1. If you do not have MAS shares currently, then buying/trading in MAS share and MAS-OR and MAS-PA is up to you. Own risk.

2. If you did have MAS shares prior to the current exercise, you have a few choices:
a. Keep MAS shares, don't subscribe to MAS-OR, so you lose if mother share price go down and your OR become toilet paper.
b. Sell MAS shares @ 1.9x, don't subscribe to MAS-OR, not a very good situation as you lose MAS-OR becoming toilet paper and selling MAS shares at lower price than you had bought it.
c. Keep MAS shares, and subscribe to MAS-OR. Of course you will need to 1.60 per share to subscribe for MAS-OR. You will win in the long run if MAS mothershare price go up higher than the average buy price of your total shares.
d. Sell MAS share @ 1.9x and subscribe to MAS-OR, dat would "earn" you some bucks. This would work as long as the mothershare did not fall below 1.60. I think this has been extensively reviewed in previous posts.

3. If you bought since yesterday, either MAS mothershare or MAS-OR, then hope for the best that the prices recover above your buy price. Mothershare still ok, if you willing to hold and wait long. MAS-OR....pray hard lah.....Got until 22/2 before worth $0.

At #2, i may have missed a few other choices, do add in if anybody feels so.

Cheers & happy trading today! biggrin.gif
*
The main objective of the right issue is not to create lot of opportunities to make money on OR.

They want people to subscribe.
VyvernS
post Feb 12 2010, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 12 2010, 07:44 AM)
What?? No, DJ needs about 250 points to even touch 50MA currently near 10400.
Bull isn't back. Strong resistance and head winds tomorrow and next week.

Better prep for bears to attack again.  Sell into this rally is the name of this game.  nod.gif
*
Today reminds me of last week...when the index went down by a 100 i think only to recover to positive territory of +10.
Today went down to 9976, about -60 before going back +105.
I am still holding a cautious view of the market and would sell into the rally like you mentioned.


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