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 Stock Market V48, Double Dip Possibility?

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ExpZero
post Jan 22 2010, 11:12 AM

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I'm looking forward for this trend until cny. biggrin.gif
ExpZero
post Jan 22 2010, 02:35 PM

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But at least in some other mind BJTOTO is usually is most stable high dividend counter.
ExpZero
post Jan 26 2010, 02:17 PM

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nobody eyeing kpj?
ExpZero
post Jan 26 2010, 02:56 PM

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anyone know how to see KLCI index at chartnexus? Or have better *free* software/site that can do TA on KLCI?(not individual counter)
ExpZero
post Jan 26 2010, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Jan 26 2010, 02:57 PM)
Talk about sell first buy is later punya story liaw  wink.gif
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nanti lagi merah lagi bagus rclxm9.gif
ExpZero
post Jan 26 2010, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Jan 26 2010, 03:04 PM)
this tread is moving after than what I can read. rclxub.gif
seem like everyone love to see blood in KLCI.
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cause everyone sold before this incident ma. rclxms.gif
ExpZero
post Jan 27 2010, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(edjo84 @ Jan 27 2010, 05:23 PM)
well Chinese saying turn bad just need few days but to be good it take years
same theory applies here. lol
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now still it's still 1265, we need few months to go around 800 points(just assumption la), so the decline and incline is at same speed. It's just mentally makes you guys think dropping is faster.
last time 1080 -> 1100(+20) also take one day only.
ExpZero
post Feb 1 2010, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Feb 1 2010, 11:35 AM)
anyone can share why KPJ-WA has so much premium against its mother share?  notworthy.gif
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over expectation.
IMO, it's overrated.
ExpZero
post Feb 1 2010, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Feb 1 2010, 11:51 AM)
Its a good vehicle during KPJ rebound. My target price to enter will be RM 1.00 when the mother share is trading at around RM 2.00. When the mother share rebound i will sold off the kpj-wa to switch to the mother share instead. The expiry date is 5 years from now. Worst come to the worst i just convert it next time.
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the exercise price is RM1.70, taking the current warrant price = 1.24.
1.24+1.7 = 2.94
current kpj price = 2.2
premium = 33.63%
Isn't 33% a little bit higher than usual? The latest trend of KPJ is down slopping while WA is increasing. The warrant should have potential to move lower.

QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Feb 1 2010, 01:42 PM)
Tabung Haji is disposing KPJ.

My major concern is the KPJ-WA having 80 cents premium against the mother. With 5 more years to expiry i am quite confident that the mother share can hit RM 3.00 and above especially with its aggresive expansion plan. But as an investor we must prepare for the worst instead of always expecting the best.

The conversion price is RM 1.70 LET say we enter at RM 1.00 THAT means we are buying at RM 2.70 PER SHARE. With EPS of around 16 cents per share after bonus issue we arrive at a PE of around 17 times which is still ok considering their current aggresive expansion mode.

If it ever hit RM 3.00 within 5 years time frame that means we have capital gain of almost 200% !!!
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Well said, but I still don't know how you gain 200%, please take note of time value of money, spend 5 years for a profit isn't a nice move. rclxms.gif
Individual performance of a counter isn't the only determinant for the counter price, especially 2010 will definitely not following 2009 trend anymore.

QUOTE(chyaw @ Feb 1 2010, 01:51 PM)
I'm not sure how you get 200%...
but take note that KPJ give div. while your WA not entitled to any div, my KPJ will give me some pocket money every year.  whistling.gif
FYI, I've no plan to buy KPJ-WA unless the premium drop to certain level.
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Yeah, some more the dividend is handsome. Well, we can dispose WA on time and get mothershare, because giving out dividend isn't a good news for WA(price drop).
ExpZero
post Feb 1 2010, 04:27 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Feb 1 2010, 02:49 PM)
Agree  nod.gif with you all  nod.gif  Thanks again to CHYAW, HTT AND CHERROY. I think this counter is really interesting. Can open topic for this counter for discussion. Really worth a look. Future potential is really great and recession proof somemore.

Cherroy on what conditions will  the warrant premium getting lower? The only factor i can think of is the shortening of warrant life span.
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the nearer to the maturity date, the warrant price will get nearer to mothershare price(after add exercise price), from my lecturer last time lol.
ExpZero
post Feb 1 2010, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Feb 1 2010, 04:57 PM)
Yup that one i understand  nod.gif What i want to do is actually buying the warrants during panic selling and profited it during rebound. But of course risk is there. I have consider the worst scenario liaw which is converting all the warrants.

But after receiving so many constructive feedback from you guys i should adjust my TP to 80 cents and below...
Who knows  wink.gif
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Everyone also wanted to do that(in fact, that is the only way to earn $$, ie: buy low sell high). I don't see the reason to buy a so long term warrant with so high premium involve in so high risk, don't forget that the money you spent on warrant earn no interest or dividend, the RM1.24 you bought today might worth RM0.95(after every year inflation 5% for 5 years), unless
1)you very confident with KPJ's price will increase.
2)you plan to sell the warrant in near future.

I like to invest in call warrant for short-term profit or counter for long term investment. This is just my opinion tho, correct me if I'm wrong.
ExpZero
post Feb 2 2010, 09:27 AM

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nice start with green day.
ExpZero
post Feb 4 2010, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Feb 4 2010, 10:46 AM)
Another statement from Dr YC Chan:

"Market may be going through a period of corrections. Notwithstanding the opening of casinos, avoid Genting counter until the correction period is over."
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genting-sp been corrected since Jan 20, for roughly 20% drop. I think GENS-C1 is a good buy.

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