local, see everyday klci hit another peak, wonder how long that will last

not sure how much different unit trust will be affected compared to direct investment, but I'm sure somehow its affected by klci up and down.

A lot of research houses are pretty optimistic about KLCI in 2011.

For instance, HwangDBS projects KLCI to hit 1730 by year end.

This post has been edited by David83: Jan 9 2011, 10:29 PM

I basically avoid doing any forecast, for most of us, trend following is good enough to capture the major move. That way I dont have to guess which way the market is heading.

Attached is a recent market status update I sent to my clients, basically showing how the trend of indices around the world are in a glance. Trend analysis is done on a regular basis with proprietory methodology (not open to discussion) although general principles are outlined in my blog.

Note: You may need to rotate the view of the pdf clockwise in case it doesn't appear right.


Attached File(s)
 sample_update4January11.pdf ( 460.25k ) Number of downloads: 62

i think its better and safer rather than acting upon speculations.

In fact, trend following is actually forecasting.

What you are simply doing is spotting some sort of trend in the historical past, and forecasting (hoping) that the trend will continue the same way into the future.

I seldom see any research and prediction that are pessimistic, this is always a rare breed.
Most 99% of prediction always good one especially when market mood is good time.

Even 18 years ago, I also read before one of prediction/expectation of KLCI will be 1700.

Hw do u guyz tink abt PB fixed Income Fund (Bond Fund) and PB Indonesia Balanced Fund?

This post has been edited by specializedmin: Jan 10 2011, 12:11 AM

trend following means, at least to me and some people, when the market is confirmed in an uptrend (current) you get in and when the market turns down, you get out. If and when I have a confirmed long term down trend I wont hesitate to get out. I follow the long term trend so I only make my move once every few months or years, depending on the trend itself. But If i focus too much on the past instead, when the trend change direction, i will not move.

At the other extreme, pure forecasting, market is down yet one insists it will go up, the trend is not even proven, or the trader is just guessing. Full of hope, driven purely by market herds mentality, no system in place, frequently gets in too late or out too early, overtrading. Even when the long term trend is down, he/she insists it will come back up soon, holding on to losses as it gets bigger.

hi...
i'm planning to invest around 6k in PM... but i'm confuse which fund that can give maximum profit but low risk...
1) i plan to invest either in PB ITTIKAL, PSF OR PRSF... which one is better?
2) do i need to invest into these 3 funds?
please help me...
thank you...

where got low risk but high return

high risk high return
low risk = low return

Choose PSF & PRSF. Skip PB Ittikal coz it suxs.

Xuzen

thank you for ur opinion...
juz wanna ask if u have invested one these 2 funds on how many percentage of the return?
thank you,,,

u wan low risk then go for bond

i hv invested 1k in PB Indonesia Balanced Fund and 10k in2 PB Fixed Income Fund. Worth 2 invest? Nid some advices frm pro ppl

its depend when/time u invested.

PBFI invested on 4 jan NAV 1.0645
PBINDOBF invested on 3 jan NAV 0.2432
Currently PBINDOBF drop a lot.

Bond fund moves inversely with share market since KLCI is having high fever now.

PBINDOBF drop agn. now oli left NAV 0.2297. What hpn to indonesia lately? The the NAV keep on dropping? I bought the fund on 3 Jan at NAV 0.2432. Quite disappointed to c the current result.

Indonesia has dropped about 10% in 1 week, also their currency have devalued by about 4.5% also in 1 week. This is due to their recent inflation figures reached 7% . The government now taking emergency action and maybe will need to raise interest rate by 1% by next month to 7.5%. Since yours is a balanced fund, raise interest rate, you also will lose even more money in your bond portion. Public mutual always have the knack of launching funds right at the peak similar to China funds.

After raising interest rate, hopefully the market will be more stable, but the bond funds, will lose out.

This post has been edited by gark: Jan 12 2011, 12:07 PM

PBFI is good, PB Indonesia Balanced... not sure, too new, no track record to base on.

Xuzen

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Added on January 12, 2011, 12:19 pmI have not invested in these two funds, my opinion is based on the calculated Jensen-Alpha Ratio.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 12 2011, 12:19 PM