QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 14 2011, 12:41 AM)
Hm, for a person arguing against something, U don't seem to be bringing any other options to the table. BTW, did I ever state that my approach is the only viable method or view? Since U stated that there are too many variables outside an investor's control, what would U suggest then, as a better method or approach to managing risks?
My approach is more on fundamentals depending on region, sector, market conditions and objectives of the funds, and whatever my research tells me at the time. I don't have a single across-the-board formula.
QUOTE
In addition, have U done research papers into statistical probabilities and risk management of value averaging vs dollar cost averaging vs lump sum approaches to investing? If not, please do yourself a favour - get off yr high horse and dig for the published papers on these. BTW, since the statistics I posted are from the PM's software with sharpe ratio, std deviations, CAGR, etc which U stated as limited use, then perhaps U can share something more useful?
That's the thing - I have seen papers that argue against DCA - that it's not necessarily better in long term performance than lump sum. And sure, those statistics are from PM. You can also get something else from PM, and other fund managers too for that matter - "Past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance". So what does that say about past statistics? Well, they do still have some value, but my point is it's limited because it's open to interpretation, and you need to keep it in context. So sorry, no high horses, just some down to earth realities.