You understand correctly when many others fail to grasp the concept. And u are asking the right question.

i dont predict, i follow the trend. if i predict there is one time i will be right and many others i will be wrong.

Following the trend ensures you will not get in at the most bottom or out at the exact peak, but at least you should get a large portion of the trend. That is better than averaging down, or taking profit when the trend still has much more room to go or when you reach your profit target but the trend still has a lot of energy.

But following the trend is not easy if you dont know how. Its not something i can teach over the internet. i have programmed it, but even if i give it to someone, he may not know how to use it. And even if he knows how to use it, he may not have the emotional discipline to stick with it. its a win win situation that my clients dont have the hassle and cost of monitoring the trend as i do that for them as i watch over my own investment too.

[quote=beauty2all,Nov 10 2010, 09:37 PM]great info i got here...

just need some opinion from "guru" here...

is PIADF now on uptrend mood?
i'm thinking to switch to other fund such as PIOGF or PIDF since my capital now is same as the amount i put into PIADF 3 years ago...
or should i hold until it catch some profit first...

thanks...

[/quote]

Most equity funds are in an uptrend, maybe there is an exception or two but the ones you mentioned are up since early 2009. That includes PIADF. If you entered early 2009, you would have gained more than 50%. Right now it is still going up.

If you move to a different fund, you will have to pay the sales charge. Thats good for your agent but not for you. Personally I would just hang in there. If the uptrend continues, you will start to get some profit. Funds dont move up forever, so I advise my clients on when to switch to bond fund when the uptrend cease. It would be a pity if you gain 30% and then lost it again when the market moves down. Switching to another equity fund does not solve your problem as the problem is not so much the fund, but it is the timing.

By the way, I get quite a number of emails and PMs asking specific questions. My time is limited, so I give my clients or potential clients more opportunity. This includes my analysis of the current trend. Advise on when to switch is for clients only. I also focus only on shariah compliant funds. I hope this clarifies.

---

Added on November 13, 2010, 2:00 am[quote=Next Generation,Nov 6 2010, 04:00 PM]

---

Added on November 6, 2010, 2:53 pm

I have no idea what are you talking about? Investment cannot be rushed, it is a slow process, which needs a lot of financial knowledge. if you rush into any investment which you are not thinking, then you will suffer the consequences. There are no investment that is 'must have' sooner or later there will be more opportunities down the road.

[/quote]

haha... maybe my English too weak...
sorry bro...
hurm, yup... Investment is long term..
but its better if u keep saving every month..
not just park ur money in one shoot or lump sum...

[/quote]

Having a disciplined approach to savings is good, but so many people complained when they invest in the stock market or unit trust during a downtrend. A lot of people say they want to invest long term but what they mean by long term is a just a few months. They get upset if they dont see any return for 2 years.

Personally I only add my investment in an uptrend and I would advise my clients to do the same. So yes, there will be time when you just park your money somewhere (not under the pillow . Can you imagine yourself investing in a unit trust at the beginning of the financial crisis in 1997.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Nov 13 2010, 02:00 AM

years ago, i tried to predict, i thought the index was too high, i ended up losing a bull run.
now i just follow the trend.i dont have any magic or crystal ball to know if there is going to be a war somewhere else or vice versa.
when i forecast, i have one chance of being right, and many of being wrong. when i follow the trend, its the other way around.

if it is public mutual unit trust, she doesnt need the agent code or the policy file. she can just go to any public bank and get the repurchase form. In the statement by public mutual I am sure there is an account number. She wil need that to fill in the form. Just bring the latest statement to public bank and I am sure someoen can help her. A cheque will be ready for her within 10 days if she is a regular member or 3 days if she is a mutual gold member. She can choose to have the cheque deposit into her bank account or mail to her.

If she decides to invest in something more agressive but with managed risk and need help with monitoring and advise, PM me, I am an investor + agent.

Yeah, he mentioned public mutual, I just mentioned it again just in case.

Yes, it can be done through the branch, what is "being done" is actually submitting the form. It is the same form for repurchase or switching. Tick whichever is applicable.
Cheque will be issued (no cash on the spot) by Public Mutual within days as mentioned, same as opening an account can be done through public bank also.

---

Added on November 16, 2010, 1:50 pmNo insight. Personally I wont go in unless I have seen some actual performance.

I would possibly be interested if it is agressive, something equivalent to PIOF which is now closed. PIA40GF doesnt sound like it.
But if it is allowed for EPF scheme, something to consider.

As for PIINBNF, not sure, have to wait and see.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Nov 16 2010, 01:50 PM

you can read up some info on http://www.fmutm.com.my/

I basically avoid doing any forecast, for most of us, trend following is good enough to capture the major move. That way I dont have to guess which way the market is heading.

Attached is a recent market status update I sent to my clients, basically showing how the trend of indices around the world are in a glance. Trend analysis is done on a regular basis with proprietory methodology (not open to discussion) although general principles are outlined in my blog.

Note: You may need to rotate the view of the pdf clockwise in case it doesn't appear right.


Attached File(s)
 sample_update4January11.pdf ( 460.25k ) Number of downloads: 62

trend following means, at least to me and some people, when the market is confirmed in an uptrend (current) you get in and when the market turns down, you get out. If and when I have a confirmed long term down trend I wont hesitate to get out. I follow the long term trend so I only make my move once every few months or years, depending on the trend itself. But If i focus too much on the past instead, when the trend change direction, i will not move.

At the other extreme, pure forecasting, market is down yet one insists it will go up, the trend is not even proven, or the trader is just guessing. Full of hope, driven purely by market herds mentality, no system in place, frequently gets in too late or out too early, overtrading. Even when the long term trend is down, he/she insists it will come back up soon, holding on to losses as it gets bigger.

I am not exactly sure about Pnb ASx performance, i think there are quite a few threads on it in some forums, discussing the return. the bonus if i am not mistaken depends on how long you invest and i thought i read somewhere the dividend is not exactly for a 12 month period? anyway i dont mean to open up a discussion pnb asb for example, just wanting to point out that it may not be exactly straightforward to compare.

As for PM funds, i would suggest downloading the monthly performance/review report from public mutual website. for each fund it shows a chart on how the price or NAV, net asset value fluctuates with time. Look at how much you can lose or gain in a single year.

Now at the bottom of the page, there is a table, each column for a year. The first row shows how price change from year to year in percentage. this value actually change from trading day to day but the row shows change from year to year. The fifth row shows dividend if any in percentage per year. The total value for the year simply said is approximately adding both the first row and the fifth row.

i have posted before in this or another thread a statement showing how the first row and fifth row adds up to the total value.
do note however, there are sales charge involved with pm funds, 5.5% for loaded funds, 3% for epf loaded funds and 0.25% for low load funds.

I used to invest in ASB and ASW but have moved to pm funds. I think thats enough for now, but Pm me if you want to discuss further. leave me your email if you would like me to send you the performance report.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Jan 19 2011, 03:30 AM

Some people or companies claim that 5 years is long term. Here is why, I think.
The stock market have trends that change every few years. Typically it moves down by a year or two, and then typically goes up longer.
Example, 2008 we were down. this lasted for 1 year only, although quite some damage. Then it has been up since then with some corrections here and there. It has been like that, up and down for a few years. There are always people who seem so comfidence on wthats going to happen next, but in reality, how much up and how much down, we dont know what will happen or when exactly.

But suppose you started investing at the beginning of the downtrend in 2008 (so unlucky) and stayed investing, you would have lost quite a bit, maybe 40%, maybe much more, depending on where you invested. But by end 2009, you would have recovered some of your losses and by end 2010, maybe you have recovered a major portion of your losses but not all of it quite yet. But end 2013? Maybe, maybe not, but likely quite some portion of it.

The idea is that 5 years is likely to be long enough to recover any losses or gain from your equity/equity fund investment. No guarantee, just likely. If you add any annual dividend, the chances are better.

Thats why the lower risk investment which is not as volatile, or quite steady are meant for shorter term investors, they can get their return faster albeit generally lower as the max loss at any point in time if any is typically minimal.

there are unit trust funds for what is usually mentioned in the UT prospectus as "long term strategy", for "investor with long term outlook", etc. and there are those for "short terms" as well.

Public mutual and many other UT companies even allows for switching between the different funds with different strategy. Switching is more suited for the very few learned and experienced investors (not gamblers) or those who have unit trust consultants capable enough to guide them.

Different people have different needs, risk tolerance. You can PM me to discuss further.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Jan 21 2011, 12:32 AM

1. Read the prospectus under switching. I believe if you do frequent switching,in less than 21 days, PM has the right to refuse it.
2. Some of the equity funds can easily move by 1% in a day, many of these moves are unpredictable. by not staying invested, you may miss these moves. Most people will do well going for the big trends which switch every few years instead.
3. If you have the urge to do short term trading, "paper trade" first or have dedicated money in the stock market for your "tuition fee", money that you can afford to get burned for experience.

Yes, you can. It will ask you to select whcih bank and then you need to log in from there.

piincome is very very steady and pisbf is not bad at all. Historically, both have been consistently better than epf.
if you can take a bit more risk, put say 20% in pittikal or pidf and 80% in pisbf.
This is just an example.

The process is quite simple, it is explained in my blog at http://belirendahjualtinggi.wordpress.com, see page EPF/KWSP. Make sure you use the calculator to find out if you are eligible and by how much.
Any agent can help you with the forms. Submit to public bank/mutual and just wait for your account to be opened within weeks.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Jan 25 2011, 11:19 PM

I only give advise on islamic/shariah compliant funds.

By the way, attached is a sample statement that your PM agent can print for you and what it means. I designed it for my clients but thought it maybe useful for others too.

---

Added on January 26, 2011, 4:03 amThere seem to be a misconception that the Fund Manager does the switching for you. They can switch companies invested for example, but if their funds strategy is equity fund, they cannot move to bond fund, even though this maybe the best thing to do during a downtrend such as in 2008. If the fund manager is suppose to switch for you, PM does not need to introduce switching. I hope this clarify.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Jan 26 2011, 04:03 AM


Attached File(s)
 A_Guide_to_Understanding_Your_Statement.pdf ( 598.92k ) Number of downloads: 76

A guide to understanding PM's fund performance attached. Please note that the sales charge is not deducted from the performance results here.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Jan 26 2011, 04:07 AM


Attached File(s)
 A_Guide_to_Understanding_Public_Mutual_Performance_Report_for_Funds.pdf ( 1.44mb ) Number of downloads: 73

For public mutual, yes, you are suppose to go through an agent/consultant. there is an option for a series of fund called PB which you can go straight to the bank, but no agent, and charge is the same, so you might as well go through an agent. The agent/consultant is suppose to explain to you whatever you need to know and answer your questions and help you with the forms. So this is suppose to make it all easier. You can email/talk with a few agents first before deciding who you want to sign up with. for many people, this is critical, so choose wisely. ask him/her about his/her own investment track record if possible, update frequency with custoner, switching or buy and hold strategy, etc.

Before signing up with the agent, he will provide you the prospectus, which is a good reference to keep and browse through. You may also want to ask for the latest fund review/performance report. Ask him/her to show you how to read the report so that you have some idea of what to expect from the funds perfirmance.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Feb 2 2011, 11:15 AM

Not exactly tabulated that way, or easy to find. But you can retrieve for any particular date by charting it at http://my.morningstar.com
You can change the beginning date and end date. By default it will show growth in %. Change it to price. The value (in this case price) coressponding to the end date should be displayed at the top left hand corner of the chart.
That seems to be a lot of work.

If you are interested in comparing the different public mutual funds, I am compiling the annual % change in NAV from morningstar and the dividend from public mutual. It is not exact comparison as the % of the dividend is relative to the % of the NAV at the date of the financial year end, but that is as close as I can get. The public mutual year to year % change is actually from financial year end to financial year end which is different fro different funds.

I guess if you have the % change of NAV per year, from just one NAV at the beginning of the year, you can then convert it to NAVs at different year, approximately.

Note that most of the charting I have seen so far is just for the change in NAV, it doesnt include the dividend. The dividend is important as some funds are not agressive in terms of NAV change, but gives high dividend, and vice versa. Without teh dividend, the picture is not complete.

If there is interest, I can share the results when I am done. Its for some 5-8 shariah compliant funds and 3 islamic monet market/bond funds.
If anyone knows any data compiled that includes both the NAV and dividend, l am interested to know.

as mentioned, no problem
but you cant switch funds between agents. Say market goes down and you want to switch from ittikal to bond, it has to be ittikal from agent A to bond agent A, not bond agent B.

This post has been edited by buylowsellhigh: Feb 9 2011, 11:40 AM

equity to bond is 0.25% for first time switching or additional units.
bond to equity 5.5% for first time switching or additional units.
otherwise switching is Rm 25 only, unless you are mutual gold member, free 18 to 25x switching per year.
Also make sure when you switch out, you leave 1000 units (not rm 1000) so the account you left out remains active, therefore when you come back again it is not considered new investment.

the 5.5% is for cash, epf sales charge is limited to 3%.

See my answer in blue above.