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 YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL, VERSION 2

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TSdarkknight81
post Mar 1 2010, 04:37 PM

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Base on current EPS of around 4 cents. YTL POWER is trading at PE of around 14 times. I would say it futures growth will very much depends on how prudent Francis Yeoh utilize the 8 billion cash on future acquisition. As we can see base on 16 cents EPS per annum basically it is almost paying 100% or more from their earnings.

For POWER SERAYA CASE, it will contribute around 400 million per annum to ytlpower in terms of net profit base on projection. But refer on the past 2 quarterly report the sum up of profit before taxation was only 188 million only from seraya instead of 200 million and it is profit before taxation somemore.
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 2 2010, 08:08 AM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Mar 1 2010, 11:05 PM)
I'll share something I intepreted from the report.

The EPS this quarter is not very accurate. Mainly because the 750 mil shares converted from the WA in the last quarter is not fully represented in the report. It only shows 350 mil shares added to the overall share outstanding which allow the EPS to show a 10% increase. However if you add the balance 400 mil shares, the EPS will be diluted to 3.77 sens per share which is lower than previous quarter.

NTA did increase though as they rake in the cash from the last batch of WA conversions, almost RM900 mil of cash acquired from the shareholders in the last quarter.
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Thanks a lot Skidd.

Don know you guys agree or not. Like what i said the EPS does not boost up much as we all know YTLPOWER business are highly regulated and conversion of warrant will dilute the EPS further but we still can accept that.

However, recent move of ytlpower into wimax eventhough not much $ pump into wimax yet at the moment but its still worry me. if wimax project failed....and we don know how much they are going to pump in yet....

There is one chinese proverb no matter how smart you are, you will make mistake too.. I am worry that Francis Yeoh made a wrong decision by venturing into wimax this time and we don know how much he is going to pump in yet....

But i am reluctant to sell off my ytlpower either as it might surge to RM 2.50 OR maybe higher if they acquired any utilities assets. But i have stop topping up any ytlpower shares since last quarters results was out.

The main catalyst for this counter will be the cash pile of RM 8 BILLLION and unconverted warrants worth 2 billion. Frankly speaking if without these 10 billion of cash pile i will sell off my ytlpower long ago

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 2 2010, 08:13 AM
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 2 2010, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Mar 2 2010, 03:17 PM)
Today price back to 2.22....after the last few days dips thumbup.gif
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Yup slowly climb up indeed. The buying volume keep on increasing. If you really monitor this counter, ytlpower tends to release good news everytime its release its quarter report. So i am expecting some good news too this time tongue.gif

Besides my TWS started to climb already icon_rolleyes.gif declared 10 cents dividend.
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 3 2010, 03:56 PM

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YTLPOWER wake up liaw now trading around 2.24. One more good news ytlpower start their share buy backs recently.
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 3 2010, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Mar 3 2010, 08:39 PM)
Share divvy coming soon?  drool.gif  drool.gif
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But they bought not much only 50,000 shares. By the way the director yeoh soo min also bought some.
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 5 2010, 07:51 AM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Mar 4 2010, 11:39 PM)
Btw,when is the ex-date and the payment? Really looking forward to get all my divvy
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YTL Power declared a second single tier interim dividend of 7.5% per share for the financial year ending 30 June 2010. The book closure and payment dates for the dividend are 17 March 2010 and 31 March 2010, respectively.
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 5 2010, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 5 2010, 02:48 PM)
ex-date 15th March mah.
can sell on 15th.
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I don sell my ytlpower wink.gif I keep on topping up since August 2008. My paper gain is around 40k including dividend for YTLPOWER so far

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 5 2010, 03:48 PM
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 8 2010, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Mar 6 2010, 11:14 PM)
Haha I think a lot of YTLPOWER's investors would like to have as much as darkknight.  biggrin.gif
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lol if compare with YTLP directors my holding is nothing at all sad.gif

My vision is holding 1,000,000 shares within 20 years time. I am still far from my target laugh.gif

We will never satisfy on what we are having. you will hope for more once you reached your target.

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 8 2010, 08:51 AM
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 9 2010, 07:58 AM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Mar 8 2010, 06:33 PM)
rclxm9.gif YTLp 2.30 liao, though there is big buyers and big sellers.... Some one is accumulating.... thumbup.gif

Darkknight, your paper gains must have increase a lot today!  thumbup.gif
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lol nothing to be excited of. As what you mentioned mar there are up and down tongue.gif

Besides, i am not planning to sell off unless it reach more than 3.00 which is impossible at the moment

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 9 2010, 07:59 AM
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 10 2010, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Mar 10 2010, 07:54 AM)
By seeing the price up, not selling also happy mar....

I am also not selling.  But at least happy to see my portfolio of this counter no more in red like it dropped just weeks or month ago.  brows.gif
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nod.gif
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 10 2010, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Mar 10 2010, 02:45 PM)
YTL Power's 13.3m new shares to list Thursday

KUALA LUMPUR: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD []'s additional 13.3 million new shares will be listed on Thursday, March 10.

A Bursa Malaysia Securities listing circular said on Wednesday 13.279 million new shares arose from the exchange of YTL Power Finance (Cayman) Ltd's five-year zero coupon guaranteed exchangeable bonds 2005/2010 into shares.

Another 22,000 new shares were issued under the employees' share option scheme.
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the last bond conversion was November 23 2009, 1.2M shares

any opinion on this ?
i think the price can get hit back to 2.20 or lower....
In addition, the EPS will be diluted from this exercise, right ?

plz correct me if i'm wrong...  notworthy.gif
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Yup definitely . Was thinking of want to sell off some and buy back later. But i am afraid that some good news might be on the pipeline....

See the high buying volumes i wonder something is up to hmm.gif

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 10 2010, 02:38 PM
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 10 2010, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Mar 10 2010, 03:40 PM)
Their total shares is almost 6.7 bil shares outstanding. 13 mil new shares is like a drop in the swimming pool. Don't worry, will have no effect whatsoever.
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Skid any news on ytlpower? tongue.gif Why the buying volume so high hmm.gif
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 10 2010, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Mar 10 2010, 03:40 PM)
Their total shares is almost 6.7 bil shares outstanding. 13 mil new shares is like a drop in the swimming pool. Don't worry, will have no effect whatsoever.
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0.013/6.7 x 100% = 0.19 % only laugh.gif


Added on March 10, 2010, 2:47 pm
QUOTE(jasontoh @ Mar 10 2010, 03:45 PM)
Share divvy on the way
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Not much treasury shares left. Lazy to find out the figure but i remember not much lar wink.gif So is impossible.

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 10 2010, 02:47 PM
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 10 2010, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Mar 10 2010, 03:55 PM)
Really don't know. I only suspect its because their Power Seraya 800MW co-gen unit is already running from January, so this quarter will be seeing some contribution from it. But actually I was expecting YTLPOWER to drop even more due to GBP, was already planning to add bit more to make a round number for my holdings.
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The 800MW i believe already factored in as it is an old news. So most probably is something else i believe. But the way i look at it... Why YTLPOWER don want to pay off their debts with their 8 billion cash pile instead of issuing new shares? Must be some acquisition coming soon.

I hope i am not wrong this time tongue.gif

By the way i stop topping up my ytlpower since last year.


Added on March 10, 2010, 3:04 pm
QUOTE(jasontoh @ Mar 10 2010, 03:58 PM)
They can give up odd number instead of 1 for 25.
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According to Skid figure, we can get 1 share for every 134 shares we hold....Do you think it is possible?

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 10 2010, 03:05 PM
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 10 2010, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Mar 10 2010, 06:11 PM)
Why not. In fact, now they already start buying back, I'm sure by AGM, this will be one agenda, and approved, YTLP reach 2.50, after ex 2.20 again  biggrin.gif
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their buy backs are in small quantities only. i don think they will use their cash on either reduce their borrowing or share buy back. They will look into new acquisition instead i believe.
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 11 2010, 08:29 AM

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QUOTE(calmwater @ Mar 10 2010, 10:37 PM)
As anticipated, the pound has gone below 1:5

Printed from the XE Universal Currency Converter at: www.xe.com/ucc
 
Live rates at 2010.03.10 13:28:03 UTC
1.00 GBP = 4.95987 MYR
United Kingdom Pounds    Malaysia Ringgits 
1 GBP = 4.95987 MYR   1 MYR = 0.201618 GBP
I am surprised YTLPOWR is @ 2.29, going up about 15 sen after announcement of 3.75 sen div.

If we look at the charts, YTLPOWR came down below 2.00 to as low as 1.70 in tandem with falling pound and then rose up with a rising pound.

It's current price movement seems unusual. I can only guess either some good news coming or some goreng activity till the obvious happens.

For the last quarter the conversion rate was 1:5.5

That's about 10% less profit contribution from Wessex for the next quarter results not to mention the asset value. Though the actual percentage will be known at end of March.

No plans to move in, not until the mother goes below 1.90.
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Yes agree pound movement does impact YTLPOWER share price as almost 50% of the revenue was contributed by WESSEX WATER. nod.gif
However, last time YTLPOWER dipped below 1.70 was mainly due to IPP WINDFALL tax.

As i have mentioned earlier, the catalyst for YTLPOWER at the moment is the 8 billion cash together with unconverted warrants which total up to be RM 10 BILLION.

So, they can buy up any power plants or water treatment plant.....So we can only determine after the acquisition news come out.

My view is YTLPOWER share quite hard to speculate as i remember one of my frend bought at RM 1.80 AND he sold off at around 1.95 as he told me it is at the peak liaw...

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 11 2010, 08:39 AM
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 11 2010, 08:50 AM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Mar 11 2010, 09:43 AM)
Haha...same as another friend of mine telling me YTLP cannot move further as it has rally from 1.75 to 1.9x. Now he  doh.gif
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The story does not end here...My frend bought back at RM 2.15 doh.gif
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 11 2010, 09:01 AM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Mar 11 2010, 09:52 AM)
Well, a lot of time is like this. I remember Sapcres was at 1.40 one time and my friend ask me to sell it because it has already rally 0.70 to 1.40, but he bought it at 2.x. I was like  shocking.gif because that is when I start selling
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But don get me wrong too. I stopped buying ytlpower since last year. At the moment i just keep neutral on this counter.
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 18 2010, 08:12 AM

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QUOTE(kamemada @ Mar 18 2010, 09:05 AM)
eh? why is that? lol.

btw, YTLPOWR has been on my watchlist for about 3 month now.
im more of a long-term trader. seeking at least 15% a year.

OOT;
other than this, probably one of the REITs. still looking for the other 1-2 more.
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15% return from YTLPOWER every year? I doubt that hmm.gif 10% still achieveable.
TSdarkknight81
post Mar 18 2010, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(kamemada @ Mar 18 2010, 10:13 AM)
Haha my bad. 15% was actually as a whole. Not just YTLPOWR. 10% huh? Looks promising.
May I know the current Fair Price? Thanks.
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My fair price and Skid fair price are not the same too. Its all depend on the value we can see from that company.

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