As we are now in the final quarter of 2009, we roll forward our target price to end-2010. We think that the latest incident could dampen sentiment on the stock, along with the foreign hedging misstep. We, therefore, widen the discount to our 15 times target market price/earnings (P/E) from 20% to 40%. Our earnings changes led to an increase in our
end-2010 target price from RM7.73 to RM8.13. We maintain our outperform recommendation based on the potential improvement in the group’s longer-term earnings.
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Outperform at RM5.03: A fire broke out at one of Kossan’s glove factories on Tuesday — Plant C at Perusahaan Getah Asas in Jeram, Selangor. This is negative news as it is the second fire in a year for the company. It could be disruptive for Kossan’s operations, earnings and potentially its reputation if the incident arose from negligence.
The company reassured us that it can claim from its insurer any damage to equipment or stocks. Kossan does not expect its shipments or delivery schedule to be significantly affected as it has a policy of keeping on average a 5% buffer of finished goods at all its factories to allow for changes or increase in orders by its customers.
Bad news aside, Kossan is scheduled to release its 3QFY09 results next week. If the recent results posted by other glove players are anything to go by, there is a high chance of similarly strong results from Kossan.
We estimate Kossan’s 3QFY09 core earnings to rise 12% quarter-on-quarter and almost double year-on-year to around RM29 million. This was supported by the company’s focus on innovative products and better-margin nitrile and powder-free gloves as well as a stronger pick-up for its technical rubber product division.
In 1H09, a total of RM24.7 million of foreign exchange losses were recognised. However, the US dollar has been depreciating and averaged RM3.52 in 3Q compared to RM3.55 in 2Q and RM3.63 in 1Q. This, in our view, will result in lower forex losses of around RM10 million for the quarter.
As the foreign currency hedging contract is due to expire at end-Nov and the exchange rate is hovering around RM3.37 currently, we expect even smaller forex losses for 4Q.
Source:
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/component/c...cle/153992.htmlGood to start collecting now...RM4.84-RM4.9

Added on November 24, 2009, 11:12 amQuarterly report will be out by today....
This post has been edited by cwtong: Nov 24 2009, 11:12 AM