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 Stock Market V40, Do you believe in October Myth?

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cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(thken @ Sep 29 2009, 02:19 PM)
maxis hard to apply.....only  few % to non bumi huh.gif
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Chance of hitting 3D might be higher to get the IPO, biggrin.gif, so I will opt for 3D laugh.gif
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 02:39 PM

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Maxis public investors is at min side, MCB still holding 75% stake which is the min requirement of listing (you cannot have less than 25% free float), it just means they don't intend to sell their stake too much.
The too low free float issue might be a problem for longer term as it means large foreign instituitional investors hard to take large stake in it.
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Sep 29 2009, 02:45 PM)
Da Ma Cai!!! drool.gif  drool.gif
Non bumi only get the crumbs! mad.gif

We should boycott Maxis,let them know that they derive their profit mainly from us! vmad.gif
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Support own stock, Tanjong. biggrin.gif

You must spend more/use more (which they derived more profit from you) as Elite one club (something like that, forget the name liao), then can have the Maxis customer portion IPO.

The barely minimum free float 25% is one of lowest in recent big IPO, if not mistaken, even last time MCB listing time was higher than that.
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Sep 29 2009, 02:51 PM)
Chillax  cool2.gif , even if u get an IPO also doesnt make u 1000% richer?

In a true and fair world (assuming), with such good media coverage for MAxis... i doubt it even for the public at large its possible to even get above 5 or perhaps 10K shares.

Gravity will take hold once all the HU and the HA subside.

In the meantime buy TM, Axiata Digi lor tongue.gif
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5K? 10K?

1k is also good liao or very hard to get.
Unless one is applying to get more than 100K shares or 500K shares one, may be get a few more after hitting.
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Sep 29 2009, 03:55 PM)
Actually I compare these 2 counters because I bought at the same price, but TA rebounding (or surging) a lot faster than OSK. So, theoretically, there should have some fundamental to support it's power surge right?
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Cannot compare directly.

TA now is more a properties based company (although TA previously was one of top securities firm), while OSK still a investment banking based.

Fundamental is different.
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Sep 29 2009, 04:19 PM)
Cherroy, do you have problem loading stock market's thread?
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Yesterday got, today, no.

Can post your problem if facing problem as admin making some database change.
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 04:27 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 29 2009, 04:22 PM)
Conspriacy theory again. whistling.gif
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Sep 29 2009, 04:19 PM)
Not same business meh?  hmm.gif
Else, how the research from TA securities or OSK coming out?
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TA focus is in properties already, not rely on investment banking.
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Sep 29 2009, 04:32 PM)
70% currently owned by Maxis dan rkn-rkn
leaving approximately 30% free float

according to the article
27.7% to be allocated for institutions.

I am confused this 27.7% will be included in the 70% or the 30%... if the later wouldn't that leave free float around 2%? W?TF  doh.gif
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27.7% is including instituitional and retails

as those instituitional portion is considered as free float as well.
cherroy
post Sep 29 2009, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Sep 29 2009, 04:33 PM)
I thought TA Global will be properties, TA will control TA Global only, right?  hmm.gif
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TA's core business is properties and properties related, securities business is not is main business anymore, although still a chunck of come from it.

It is not like TA dispose TA Global, TA still control TA Global and running it, just it spin off as another listing entity, whatever TA Global make (revenue/profit) still will register under TA's book.
cherroy
post Sep 30 2009, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Sep 30 2009, 01:55 PM)
If you know the history of T in the securities industry,you probably will have second thought. brows.gif
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You means Omega?
cherroy
post Sep 30 2009, 02:14 PM

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A lot of people knew TA around 1994 including me, as at that time, securities business is like hot cake or printing money business in super bull run, if not mistaken, TA was around 10+, almost every securities company share like hitting jackpot or like gold.
cherroy
post Sep 30 2009, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 30 2009, 03:58 PM)
the index is putting up a show huh

i see more red now, -6 pts, aiyor.
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Monkey this month short the FKLI, so 1 lot selling across biggrin.gif

QUOTE(protonw @ Sep 30 2009, 04:12 PM)
Treat Nekobank shareholders as kids.  laugh.gif  and only rm20/- hahhaha

How do I adopt your cousin's dog, call her?
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Rm20, not bad liao.

Not the Rm2 candy. laugh.gif

Better than nothing.


QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 30 2009, 04:12 PM)
/treat cherroy eat kuih talam, dont warn me for being OT tongue.gif
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Mana my Kuih Talam? vmad.gif laugh.gif
cherroy
post Sep 30 2009, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(alanaw @ Sep 30 2009, 04:41 PM)
Guys buy TA on dip. TA global gona be listed soon.. Dun miss this hell of a chance~!! nod.gif
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QUOTE(alanaw @ Sep 30 2009, 04:45 PM)
Not alot la.. If TA go up to rm1.80 oni i can earn a BMW sport.  smile.gif
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Haha, tell others to buy you the BMW Sport. Nice tactic. laugh.gif

No offence, joking only.
cherroy
post Sep 30 2009, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Sep 30 2009, 05:15 PM)
The curse is back.
DJIA? Hope is RED. (so that I can re-enter my fav counters)

8:30 Final Q2 GDP and Corporate Profits
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

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Friday data ie employment number, is the most important one, the rest doesn't bother too much the market. Because any solid recovery must accompanied with job creation if not, it is not sustainable for economy growth.
cherroy
post Sep 30 2009, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Sep 30 2009, 10:46 PM)
1:50 is coming soon, then. There are pros and cons, I believe Cherroy explained before? TM divvy is here?
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Buyback is actually using your portion (as shareholders) money to buy stock for you.

So if the company is doing buyback, effectively it is you are buying the share at the buyback price they are paying right now.

It is your entitled money if company is sincere enough to give it as cash.

I don't see there is a need to company buyback then give it as share dividend afterwards, as it just means it forcing shareholders's entitled cash money to buy the company stock only.


cherroy
post Sep 30 2009, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Sep 30 2009, 07:23 PM)
Rambutan in a glimpse:
1H net profit 372.941 million (increased 10.45%) 
2nd interim gross dividend of 17.5 sen less Tax 25%

Ex-Date 21/10/09, long time more tongue.gif

gonna go through the report after dinner..
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EPS at 45 cents, annualised RM1.80,

at 15.00 means PER 8.3x brows.gif

Cash 1.8 billion. Cash generation is strong, no problem for generous dividend. They can even raise the dividend if they want to based on the cash generation ability.

Tanjong had lot of borrowing, short and long term in USD, so if USD sinks vs RM, extra exchange paper gain.
cherroy
post Sep 30 2009, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Sep 30 2009, 11:52 PM)
Well, they can give div or share div. Giving share div will earn us a lot (exponential), provided the market really going up. Else, nothing much we can do, since we are stuck in the first place. Not really stuck, just that I also have no idea what stocks to buy now should I realized the gain on Dialog
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The bolded part is the key. A lot of company were doing buyback last year before the crisis happened, it just means company is making loss with the shareholders money, even Citi buyback its share at USD50, look at how now. That's the major problem of the buyback.

I still believe company or company management board should be focus (or responsibility) on to increase shareholders benefit in term of generating more profit to the company or dividend to shareholders, instead of going into the market themselves to buy share, which they might not (or might) good at it.



cherroy
post Oct 1 2009, 12:16 AM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Sep 30 2009, 11:54 PM)
Agreed.  However, if the company buy the shares at a reasonable price, especially when low, it should do shareholders some good:-

No 1, it can stabilise the share price.

No 2, the company can buy its own shares with the excess cash in hand.

No 3, we dont have to pay 25% tax should we be given dividend in the form of shares.  (In other words, we have 25% more of shares compare to cash dividend).

No 4, we can sell the shares given and get back the cash with 25% more should we want cash.

No 5, For those that want to reinvest, you save the transactions fees.

Am I right to say so?  hmm.gif
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1) You use the cash to give good dividend, share price will automatically stablise itself, it is the market force that matter the most, look at BAT, even the financial crisis was on its height point, its share still solid like a rock. You don't need to interfere much to prop up the share price, nobody can fight the market force, market will determine itself.


3)&4) Yup, this I agree, but partly no applicable after single tier, any profit made or accumulated profit is taxed at company level.

Nothing beat hard real cash. What if company is actually buying at higher share price level. Like company is paying average Rm2.00 for the buyback, but share price now is Rm1.50. Effectively you don't save any from it. As if give cash, it means RM2.00 net. But now worth Rm1.50 only, still lose out.

5) It is force reinvest, company still pay for commission for brokerage during the buyback as same with retailers, investment banks still charge the commission, stamp duty, clearing fee. Even we received as free share dividend, it means company actually paying for it already. Company money is your entitled money.

The major problem of buyback is so called that reasonable price, what price is low in consideration? Share price below NTA? Share price below cash level per share? There is no guide line on it.
Why buy today, then next day no buying? Company is just seen buyback when they wish, as same as most retailers buy stocks when they wish, a good strategy to do it in this way?

At least need some analysis or proper explaination to shareholders why buyback and reason for it. We had seen lot of company is making losses for shareholders (in term of money) due to buyback price too high.

The one I had seen the company making decent profit out of buyback programme is IGB, which they sell their part of their previously treasury share (which bought at lower level) at a gain.

Don't mean buyback is totally not good, as ability to buyback means at least company financially and cash situation is strong, just nothing beat hard real cash return for shareholders. Want to reinvest, can always use the cash to buy the share again from the open market, by then shareholders have a choice. Market is not stupid, if a company is good and give good return to shareholders, people won't ignore the stock.

Cheers. smile.gif


cherroy
post Oct 1 2009, 12:43 AM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Oct 1 2009, 12:39 AM)
i believe it will touch 1600

laugh.gif

My belief only...
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Matter of time only, due to economy growth and inflation. icon_rolleyes.gif

During 1994, when crossing 1300 time, people talk about touching 1500, but it only happened after 14 years. sweat.gif

So gain 200 points for holding 14 years, 200/1300 = 15% equivalent to 1% per year, much much worst than FD

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