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 MYR Vs USD, Foreign Exchange Risk

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TSmaxchua
post Sep 14 2009, 04:04 PM, updated 17y ago

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Hi,
I believe many of you here are investing in US stocks through your brokers. I was wondering, for those who are investing in US stocks, did you take into account the foreign exchange risk incurred? If you do, i would like to know your views on the strength on MYR vs USD, please state your case/support for your opinion, thanks.

Purpose of this tread is to know the sentiment of the USD and MYR in this forum.
SUSMNet
post Sep 14 2009, 11:31 PM

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actually i don't care about the strenghtening of MYR or USD coz i already hedge it.
So the up or down is insignificant amount for me
zamans98
post Sep 14 2009, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(maxchua @ Sep 14 2009, 04:04 PM)
Hi,
  I believe many of you here are investing in US stocks through your brokers. I was wondering, for those who are investing in US stocks, did you take into account the foreign exchange risk incurred? If you do, i would like to know your views on the strength on MYR vs USD, please state your case/support for your opinion, thanks.

Purpose of this tread is to know the sentiment of the USD and MYR in this forum.
*
how much is you're talking about? If its over 100K RM, then can consider a check. Else forget bout it.

The point is you push for higher profit, not puny profit for US market. then the extra cash can settle all the charges/forex rate.

danmooncake
post Sep 15 2009, 02:12 AM

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Same here (already hedge). The exchange rate doesn't bother me much eventho USD looks like it is going down.

Last year before the market crash, USD 1 = 3.2 RM,
Now, USD 1 = RM 3.5. USD still wins.

If USD drops below RM3, then I'll considered hedging more to RM side but unlikely since our govt favor cheaper Ringgit.


TSmaxchua
post Sep 15 2009, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Sep 15 2009, 02:12 AM)
Same here (already hedge). The exchange rate doesn't bother me much eventho USD looks like it is going down. 

Last year before the market crash, USD 1 = 3.2 RM,
Now, USD 1 = RM 3.5.  USD still wins.

If USD drops below RM3, then I'll considered hedging more to RM side but unlikely since our govt favor cheaper Ringgit.
*
Just a stupid question here, how you guys hedge your USD? what type of derivatives you guys use?
moody5
post Sep 15 2009, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Sep 15 2009, 02:12 AM)
Same here (already hedge). The exchange rate doesn't bother me much eventho USD looks like it is going down. 

Last year before the market crash, USD 1 = 3.2 RM,
Now, USD 1 = RM 3.5.   USD still wins.
USD wins?


If USD drops below RM3, then I'll considered hedging more to RM side but unlikely since our govt favor cheaper Ringgit.
*
how do u 'hedge' more to RM side? by holding more ringgit? what is ur risk of ur business?

institutes do with banks.. so r u retailers or institutes? exporters or importers?

Malaysia are net exporters..cheaper Ringgit is better for us..

If purely buying US stocks, i don't see the huge impacts

This post has been edited by moody5: Sep 15 2009, 12:26 PM
naughtyz
post Sep 15 2009, 01:42 PM

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if ringgit cheaper we gonna be like indonesua

TSmaxchua
post Sep 15 2009, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(moody5 @ Sep 15 2009, 12:25 PM)


Malaysia are net exporters..cheaper Ringgit is better for us..

*
I watched CNBC, and when the USD is dropping, some have the same arguement as you, saying that depreciating the USD will lower their budget deficit (which is sort of your point).

But some argued that a country cannot be prosperous with a weak currency.

What i am trying to say here is that, it is beneficial to those exporting companies but not to the economy as a whole if RM keeps on depreciating against other currencies.
moody5
post Sep 16 2009, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(maxchua @ Sep 15 2009, 03:28 PM)
I watched CNBC, and when the USD is dropping, some have the same arguement as you, saying that depreciating the USD will lower their budget deficit (which is sort of your point).

But some argued that a country cannot be prosperous with a weak currency.

What i am trying to say here is that, it is beneficial to those exporting companies but not to the economy as a whole if RM keeps on depreciating against other currencies.
*
On the economy wise, BNM (the central bank) will be watching on our economy progression and they will come out with policy to sustain our economy.

Remember yr 2008, the worldwide meltdown on economy, BNM lowered our Interest rate. It is on of the tools that BNM to sustain our economic. With lower interest rate, ultimate purpose is to boost spending and invest to sustain our economy. Another effects of low interest rate, people will do carry trades which caused the depreciation of MYR against the currency which they have higher interest rate.

On the cuti cuti malaysia plan, with a depreciating MYR (or cheaper MYR), it bring lucrative profits on traveling business into Malaysia.

depreciating the USD will lower their budget deficit (which is sort of your point).

I don't get you on this line. Depreciating the USD = a depreciated USD or depreciated MYR

the budget deficit of whom? Malaysia or USA?
sparrow1
post Oct 22 2009, 11:18 AM

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Projection RM will be 3.3 by end 2009.
I used to hold a lot of USD, but change it quickly around 3.5

now it is 3.38, phewww.
cherroy
post Oct 22 2009, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(maxchua @ Sep 15 2009, 03:28 PM)
I watched CNBC, and when the USD is dropping, some have the same arguement as you, saying that depreciating the USD will lower their budget deficit (which is sort of your point).

But some argued that a country cannot be prosperous with a weak currency.

What i am trying to say here is that, it is beneficial to those exporting companies but not to the economy as a whole if RM keeps on depreciating against other currencies.
*
The depreciating of USD won't lower the budget deficit as gov still spending the same amount of money.

I think you heard it wrongly, the depreciating of USD can lower the trade deficit, as export from US become cheaper which drive more export, while import item become more expensive for US people which will drive US people to source locally, or reduce their import.

Export business flourishing also can be beneficiary to the economy. Previously 1997 Asian crisis, Asian countries rely on this model (more export) to recover, but there is a limit of your currency depreciating continously as the depreciating become too severe and out of control, it means shatter the confidence on the particular currency eventually could trigger another problem.
TSmaxchua
post Oct 22 2009, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(moody5 @ Sep 16 2009, 11:13 AM)
On the economy wise, BNM (the central bank) will be watching on our economy progression and they will come out with policy to sustain our economy.

Remember yr 2008, the worldwide meltdown on economy, BNM lowered our Interest rate. It is on of the tools that BNM to sustain our economic. With lower interest rate, ultimate purpose is to boost spending and invest to sustain our economy. Another effects of low interest rate, people will do carry trades which caused the depreciation of MYR against the currency which they have higher interest rate.

On the cuti cuti malaysia plan, with a depreciating MYR (or cheaper MYR), it bring lucrative profits on traveling business into Malaysia.

depreciating the USD will lower their budget deficit (which is sort of your point).

I don't get you on this line. Depreciating the USD = a depreciated USD or depreciated MYR

the budget deficit of whom? Malaysia or USA?
*
What i mean is that a depreciating dollar for a country, (regardless which country) will help in reducing the budget deficit of a country (ceteris paribus), exports would increase...bla bla bla.......i didnt say depreciating USD = MYR.

All i am saying is that a country cannot prosper with a depreciating currency. though it helps in budget deficit side of the equation, but the standard of living of the country will eventually fall due to weaker domestic currency.
zamans98
post Oct 22 2009, 11:31 AM

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Guys, what hedging you are talking about?

If your US account is few thousand, what is the worry?

You can get appreciation when your share price increase.
Hedging only if you are talking BIG SUM.

Don't get why you wanna hedge few thousand. As if USD = RM1.

Talk about USD hedging if your account is big, say 50K,100K, 10 millions..


claricecmw
post Oct 22 2009, 05:33 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Oct 22 2009, 11:31 AM)
Guys, what hedging you are talking about?

If your US account is few thousand, what is the worry?

You can get appreciation when your share price increase.
Hedging only if you are talking BIG SUM.

Don't get why you wanna hedge few thousand. As if USD = RM1.

Talk about USD hedging if your account is big, say 50K,100K, 10 millions..
*
ohmy.gif OMG! Can someone pls explain to me in layman's term how one can hedge? I really don't understand. Investopedia, Wikipedia ain't helping out...
icon_question.gif
GHz
post Oct 22 2009, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(claricecmw @ Oct 22 2009, 05:33 PM)
ohmy.gif  OMG! Can someone pls explain to me in layman's term how one can hedge? I really don't understand. Investopedia, Wikipedia ain't helping out...
icon_question.gif
*
Read here,

http://fxconsulting.oanda.com/discover/hedging-basics.shtml
MilesAndMore
post Oct 22 2009, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(maxchua @ Sep 15 2009, 03:28 PM)
I watched CNBC, and when the USD is dropping, some have the same arguement as you, saying that depreciating the USD will lower their budget deficit (which is sort of your point).

But some argued that a country cannot be prosperous with a weak currency.
Not to mention that foreign investors will also lose confidence in Malaysia if the Ringgit Malaysia is weak.

! Love Money
post Oct 22 2009, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(claricecmw @ Oct 22 2009, 05:33 PM)
ohmy.gif  OMG! Can someone pls explain to me in layman's term how one can hedge? I really don't understand. Investopedia, Wikipedia ain't helping out...
icon_question.gif
*
wiki cant help? hmm.gif i only start to understand hedge from this story...

QUOTE
Hedging an agricultural commodity price
A typical hedger might be a commercial farmer. The market values of wheat and other crops fluctuate constantly as supply and demand for them vary, with occasional large moves in either direction. Based on current prices and forecast levels at harvest time, the farmer might decide that planting wheat is a good idea one season, but the forecast prices are only that - forecasts. Once the farmer plants wheat, he is committed to it for an entire growing season. If the actual price of wheat rises a lot between planting and harvest, the farmer stands to make a lot of unexpected money, but if the actual price drops by harvest time, he could be ruined.

If the farmer sells a number of wheat futures contracts equivalent to his crop size at planting time, he effectively locks in the price of wheat at that time - the contract is an agreement to deliver a certain number of bushels of wheat on a certain date in the future for a certain fixed price. He has hedged his exposure to wheat prices; he no longer cares whether the current price rises or falls, because he is guaranteed a price by the contract. He no longer needs to worry about being ruined by a low wheat price at harvest time, but he also gives up the chance at making extra money from a high wheat price at harvest times.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_(finance)
zamans98
post Oct 22 2009, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(claricecmw @ Oct 22 2009, 05:33 PM)
ohmy.gif  OMG! Can someone pls explain to me in layman's term how one can hedge? I really don't understand. Investopedia, Wikipedia ain't helping out...
icon_question.gif
*
Simple.

Say your US Equity is USD5,000

EX Rate:
3.45 = 17,250

Say today the rate is 3.3, so straight away your value is 16, 500, lose 750.

Please IGNORE the Buy/Sell rate of FOREX from local bank.

So, if you target RM/USD at 3.00, means straight away lose RM2,250

So, to hedge, you use say 1000$ to buy say GOLD or NZD or AUD.. Appreciation from the rise of that instrument will cover your losses in exchange rate.

That's is HEDGING in layman term, unless some1 wanna argue about it.
teehk_tee
post Oct 23 2009, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Oct 22 2009, 10:42 PM)
Simple.

Say your US Equity is USD5,000

EX Rate:
3.45 = 17,250

Say today the rate is 3.3, so straight away your value is 16, 500, lose 750.

Please IGNORE the Buy/Sell rate of FOREX from local bank.

So, if you target RM/USD at 3.00, means straight away lose RM2,250

So, to hedge, you use say  1000$ to buy say GOLD or NZD or AUD.. Appreciation from the rise of that instrument will cover your losses in exchange rate.

That's is HEDGING in layman term, unless some1 wanna argue about it.
*
agree +1

to hedge is to effectively buy another currency which neutralises/weakens the effect of a volatile dollar. but seriously unless you got a big amount invested in overseas securities then there's no hurry to hedge. just trade like usual, your gains will more than definitely offset your currency risk.
zamans98
post Oct 23 2009, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Oct 23 2009, 12:00 AM)
agree +1

to hedge is to effectively buy another currency which neutralises/weakens the effect of a volatile dollar. but seriously unless you got a big amount invested in overseas securities then there's no hurry to hedge. just trade like usual, your gains will more than definitely offset your currency risk.
*
spot on. Agreed. Some are so worried of the FOREX, ie looking at micro issues rather than MACRO issue - such as the raise/appreciation of your instruments invested. Anything below USD20-25K nothing to worry.

Bear in mind, weak USD means also you have extra USD to buy the instrument - at your point of entry.



 

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