Nov 2 2009, 01:35 AM
QUOTE(Oracles99 @ Nov 1 2009, 10:46 PM)
Just my opinion. I agree with Malefic. Malaysia , having mobile peneration rate of 99%, means that there is not much room for growth. With India n Indonesia excluded, it means Maxis price post-listing will not have much upside. Why would investors pay RM10-00 for a mature company with little growth?
Telekom is a mature company with fixed line on the decline. It now relies on broadband for growth. Its price is around RM3-00 with a dividend yield of around 8%
Maxis has stated its intention to borrow RM5 billion to pay off its shareholders.
Post-listing, almost everyone owns Maxis, all institutional investors here owns Maxis, Foreign funds already own Maxis. Who will pay RM10-00 to buy Maxis?I think its post-listing price would be around RM5.30 to 5.50. Investors would probably not make a loss but they would probably not make much money. The offer price is the market price the sellers think it is worth.
People may recall that Maxis went to RM15-00 before it was delisted. But bear in mind that at that time, the majority shareholders are already quietly buying back all the shares in the open market. This time around, they are listing Maxis n not buying back Maxis.
This said, It does not mean that I would not apply for the shares. It is only that my expectations are far less than most people.I went to Maxis centre in Ipoh last Saturday but there was no queue for the IPO forms.
Post-listing, Maxis is a company heavily in debt, have a business with not much growth and slowing losing its marketshare.
Added on November 1, 2009, 10:50 pmOSK published its analysis which put Maxis post-listing price from RM5-30 to RM5-80.
Added on November 1, 2009, 11:20 pmThis is the comment quoted by a remisier from Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd.
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One of the more common misconception about the re-quotation of Maxis on our exchange is that it is attractive as the retail IPO price for the re-quotation of Maxis at RM5.20 apiece is lower than the price of RM15.60 apiece that Ananda Krishnan paid to take it private in 2007. Before we examine this issue, let's refer to the Maxis that was privatized in 2007 as Maxis 2007 & the new Maxis to be listed as Maxis 2009.
Maxis 2007 was listed on the exchange in 2002 with the retail IPO price was RM4.36. In 2007, Ananda paid RM17.5 billion to acquire the remaining 53.3% of Maxis 2007 that he did not own (or, at a price of RM15.60 per share). This deal valued the entire company at RM32.9 billion. Maxis 2007 consists of the Malaysian operation and two overseas operation, i.e. a 74%-stake in Aircel Ltd, India and a 95%-stake in PT Natrindo Telepon Seluler, Indonesia.
Maxis 2009 has a capital base of 7.5 billion shares (compared with 2.1 billion shares for Maxis 2007 at the point of privatization). The retail IPO price is RM5.20 per share- valuing the company at RM39.0 billion. Maxis 2009 is a purely Malaysian telco play. The Indian & Indonesian operations have been stripped off and joined Ananda's private group of companies.
So, Maxis 2009 is valued at 18.5% higher than Maxis 2007 and it does not come with Indian & Indonesian operations. While not discounting the possibility that Maxis may surprise us on the upside in the years to come, we must accept the fact that Maxis 2009 as offered is anything but cheap. If you buy into this stock, you must be prepared to hold it for long term.
Maxis is very similar to Digi.com Bhd ('Digi') as both are involved in mobile telecommunication services in Malaysia only. Digi has just announced its results for 9-month ended 30/9/2009 yesterday (see Table 2 below). Digi ((closed at RM21.76 at the end of the morning session) is now trading at a PE of 16.8 times (based on the annualized EPS of 129.3 sen).
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agree with you.Telekom is a mature company with fixed line on the decline. It now relies on broadband for growth. Its price is around RM3-00 with a dividend yield of around 8%
Maxis has stated its intention to borrow RM5 billion to pay off its shareholders.
Post-listing, almost everyone owns Maxis, all institutional investors here owns Maxis, Foreign funds already own Maxis. Who will pay RM10-00 to buy Maxis?I think its post-listing price would be around RM5.30 to 5.50. Investors would probably not make a loss but they would probably not make much money. The offer price is the market price the sellers think it is worth.
People may recall that Maxis went to RM15-00 before it was delisted. But bear in mind that at that time, the majority shareholders are already quietly buying back all the shares in the open market. This time around, they are listing Maxis n not buying back Maxis.
This said, It does not mean that I would not apply for the shares. It is only that my expectations are far less than most people.I went to Maxis centre in Ipoh last Saturday but there was no queue for the IPO forms.
Post-listing, Maxis is a company heavily in debt, have a business with not much growth and slowing losing its marketshare.
Added on November 1, 2009, 10:50 pmOSK published its analysis which put Maxis post-listing price from RM5-30 to RM5-80.
Added on November 1, 2009, 11:20 pmThis is the comment quoted by a remisier from Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd.
Quote
One of the more common misconception about the re-quotation of Maxis on our exchange is that it is attractive as the retail IPO price for the re-quotation of Maxis at RM5.20 apiece is lower than the price of RM15.60 apiece that Ananda Krishnan paid to take it private in 2007. Before we examine this issue, let's refer to the Maxis that was privatized in 2007 as Maxis 2007 & the new Maxis to be listed as Maxis 2009.
Maxis 2007 was listed on the exchange in 2002 with the retail IPO price was RM4.36. In 2007, Ananda paid RM17.5 billion to acquire the remaining 53.3% of Maxis 2007 that he did not own (or, at a price of RM15.60 per share). This deal valued the entire company at RM32.9 billion. Maxis 2007 consists of the Malaysian operation and two overseas operation, i.e. a 74%-stake in Aircel Ltd, India and a 95%-stake in PT Natrindo Telepon Seluler, Indonesia.
Maxis 2009 has a capital base of 7.5 billion shares (compared with 2.1 billion shares for Maxis 2007 at the point of privatization). The retail IPO price is RM5.20 per share- valuing the company at RM39.0 billion. Maxis 2009 is a purely Malaysian telco play. The Indian & Indonesian operations have been stripped off and joined Ananda's private group of companies.
So, Maxis 2009 is valued at 18.5% higher than Maxis 2007 and it does not come with Indian & Indonesian operations. While not discounting the possibility that Maxis may surprise us on the upside in the years to come, we must accept the fact that Maxis 2009 as offered is anything but cheap. If you buy into this stock, you must be prepared to hold it for long term.
Maxis is very similar to Digi.com Bhd ('Digi') as both are involved in mobile telecommunication services in Malaysia only. Digi has just announced its results for 9-month ended 30/9/2009 yesterday (see Table 2 below). Digi ((closed at RM21.76 at the end of the morning session) is now trading at a PE of 16.8 times (based on the annualized EPS of 129.3 sen).
Unquote
Malaysia mobile is a matured market, so mobile service maybe not the pie that we want, but the trick is within its data services and high than average revenue per user, and leading in the telco industry.
funny enough, what is the point to have RM5.20 as IPO while the company privatised it around RM15.6 2 years ago?The main reason might be selling 25% the holding company of Maxis ,then relisting it without it's oversea lossing money sub, hey, it's that brillant? AK just restructured his company, with hefty profit, stablised local sub while reap on it oversea potential without having worrying the approve of minority shareholder?
True, maybe we all find oversea adventure unacceptable for those investor who wish to have a prudent, stable and consistent dividend counter, aren't too we are too happy to find all those restructuring plan are now gone? Maxis, from growth to grown, now a dividend counter for years to come.
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