Just my opinion. I agree with Malefic. Malaysia , having mobile peneration rate of 99%, means that there is not much room for growth. With India n Indonesia excluded, it means Maxis price post-listing will not have much upside. Why would investors pay RM10-00 for a mature company with little growth?
Telekom is a mature company with fixed line on the decline. It now relies on broadband for growth. Its price is around RM3-00 with a dividend yield of around 8%

Maxis has stated its intention to borrow RM5 billion to pay off its shareholders.

Post-listing, almost everyone owns Maxis, all institutional investors here owns Maxis, Foreign funds already own Maxis. Who will pay RM10-00 to buy Maxis?I think its post-listing price would be around RM5.30 to 5.50. Investors would probably not make a loss but they would probably not make much money. The offer price is the market price the sellers think it is worth.

People may recall that Maxis went to RM15-00 before it was delisted. But bear in mind that at that time, the majority shareholders are already quietly buying back all the shares in the open market. This time around, they are listing Maxis n not buying back Maxis.

This said, It does not mean that I would not apply for the shares. It is only that my expectations are far less than most people.I went to Maxis centre in Ipoh last Saturday but there was no queue for the IPO forms.

Post-listing, Maxis is a company heavily in debt, have a business with not much growth and slowing losing its marketshare.

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Added on November 1, 2009, 10:50 pmOSK published its analysis which put Maxis post-listing price from RM5-30 to RM5-80.

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Added on November 1, 2009, 11:20 pmThis is the comment quoted by a remisier from Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd.

Quote
One of the more common misconception about the re-quotation of Maxis on our exchange is that it is attractive as the retail IPO price for the re-quotation of Maxis at RM5.20 apiece is lower than the price of RM15.60 apiece that Ananda Krishnan paid to take it private in 2007. Before we examine this issue, let's refer to the Maxis that was privatized in 2007 as Maxis 2007 & the new Maxis to be listed as Maxis 2009.

Maxis 2007 was listed on the exchange in 2002 with the retail IPO price was RM4.36. In 2007, Ananda paid RM17.5 billion to acquire the remaining 53.3% of Maxis 2007 that he did not own (or, at a price of RM15.60 per share). This deal valued the entire company at RM32.9 billion. Maxis 2007 consists of the Malaysian operation and two overseas operation, i.e. a 74%-stake in Aircel Ltd, India and a 95%-stake in PT Natrindo Telepon Seluler, Indonesia.

Maxis 2009 has a capital base of 7.5 billion shares (compared with 2.1 billion shares for Maxis 2007 at the point of privatization). The retail IPO price is RM5.20 per share- valuing the company at RM39.0 billion. Maxis 2009 is a purely Malaysian telco play. The Indian & Indonesian operations have been stripped off and joined Ananda's private group of companies.

So, Maxis 2009 is valued at 18.5% higher than Maxis 2007 and it does not come with Indian & Indonesian operations. While not discounting the possibility that Maxis may surprise us on the upside in the years to come, we must accept the fact that Maxis 2009 as offered is anything but cheap. If you buy into this stock, you must be prepared to hold it for long term.

Maxis is very similar to Digi.com Bhd ('Digi') as both are involved in mobile telecommunication services in Malaysia only. Digi has just announced its results for 9-month ended 30/9/2009 yesterday (see Table 2 below). Digi ((closed at RM21.76 at the end of the morning session) is now trading at a PE of 16.8 times (based on the annualized EPS of 129.3 sen).
Unquote

This post has been edited by Oracles99: Nov 1 2009, 11:26 PM

I read from the Star Kenanga is offering Maxis shares at RM5.20 in 40 to 50 lots without balloting for those who are willing to invest that much money. They will charge a commission of 1 to 2%.
If you have confidence that post IPO, Maxis will be around RM7 to RM10, this is obviously a good option.

This post has been edited by Oracles99: Nov 2 2009, 11:17 PM

The IPO proceeds will not go to Maxis but to the offerers of the shares, AK n others.

As I said earlier, post IPO Maxis will be heavily in debt to the tune of RM5 billion, experience little growth and slowly losing market share. It will have to upgrade its infrastructure substantially to capture the broadband market share as its broadband services are far from satisfactory. It will face stiff competition from Telekom which will roll out HSB in the Klang valley next year.

However, its saving grace is that it will be included as one of the component stocks of the Composite Index.

Investors, most probably will not make a loss but will make a small profit. So no harm applying.

It is probably a stock for the long term.

From my 20 years of experience, they reject using any reason they could find.
If they reject, no big deal. Buy it from the market if you like it. The price won't be sky high.
In the meantime, I hope they would just ignore this slight omission. Good luck.

This post has been edited by Oracles99: Nov 9 2009, 07:49 AM

quote
"Based on our experience and what we gather from the market, there is a sizeable unfullfilled order from local institutions. Our allocation was only 5% of the amount we asked for.
"Fund managers, who are benchmarking against the KLCI, may decide to buy more Maxis shares from the open market, given that it is included almost immediately as an index constituent". TA Investment Management chief investment officer Choo Swee Kee told The Edge Financial Daily.
unquote

Do you think Maxis shares would go below RM4.75? I don't think so.

My view is the same. This is a clever trick to create some demand for the shares. A clever tactic. So, no need to panic-sell.

This post has been edited by Oracles99: Nov 12 2009, 07:59 AM

Your address must be the same as your IC address. Do not care about your other addresses. My 20 years experience in applying IPOs tells me that.

OSK is trying to make money out of nothing. They expect to be allocated all the shares they want. Then they would allocate them to their high networth clients at RM5-00 without going thru' the balloting process which you n I went thru'. In return, they expect to earn a few million in commission.

Well, blame the offerers n lead managers? Obviously, it is not the intention of the offerers n lead managers to help them make the million bucks.

If they reject, I hope the offerers would give it to the small man which have limited capital like those whose draft has not yet been returned.

If they think maxis will sink on listing day, think twice. 1Malaysia unit trust will mop up all the shares.

This post has been edited by Oracles99: Nov 17 2009, 10:52 PM

Digi too is going downhill. Its network is now suffering from congestion. The Big Three will have to upgrade their infrastructure substantially.

This is a volume game. Many people got 50,000 shares thru' the IPO. You can calculate how much they are making.

This is 2009 not the 1980s when the IPO price is set by the Securities Commission. I still remember I got Nestle at RM5-20 which I sold at RM9-90 on the first day of listing. But those days are long gone.

Today, the IPO price is set by the Offeror of the shares, with guidance of the investment bank. With the market price now above the IPO price, there is no necessity to do panic selling. If you desire more gains, keep it for a while

Maxis took another round of beating. Maybe the foreign funds which were allocated the IPO will make a loss soon. It is not well supported.

But how to play contra with Maxis? It is not the speculative type but the slow n steady uptrend type.

Fung Shui outlook for 2010.

I don't believe in Fung Shui chart. But I do believe Fung Shui gives you a rather general outlook for the year. It will never be specific. It it is, all the fung shi lo would now be multi-billionaires.

Quote
Regarding the economy, fire element is often the driving force behind the stock market....fire year often generate optimism and drive up the stock market, such as 2006 and 2007. But in 2008 the water arrived and obviously people began to have fear about worsening of the USA sub-prime problem and recession. In the year 2009 there is pure earth on earth. . The earth element is not as fearful as water but is meditation. So it means people will be conservative and play safe. As such, it is a year of continue cooling down but gaining more stability. Fire is the symbol of the financial market and strong fire will stimulate optimism and speculative mentality. Without fire investors will play cool and conservative. In 2009, despite the absence of fire element in the year , the spring and summer months still showed strong wood and fire influences bringing upward surge in the stock and property market. But investors will be more cautious and practical and there will not be dramatic fluctuations such as in the magnitude of yin fire year in 2007. In general 2009 is a year of continual cooling down but showing signs of more stability and calmness with steady upward trend in the stock market. But in 2010. the Tiger carries the seed of fire element and so there is strong chance of a more substantial economic recovery with stronger optimism starting from the spring season.

The banking and financial tsunami that started in 2008 is mostly triggered by the absence of fire elements and the dominating water element which generated fear. Banking is Metal and it needs fire to melt it into useful tools. And finance and stock market are more related to fire which generates optimism. As such, the total absence of fire element in 2008 and 2009 is responsible for the slow down in economy and the banking crisis. However, the Tiger of 2010 is mother and seed of fire and it is also essential part of the fire penalty. Therefore it is anticipated that such wood will create a condition for a steady improvement in optimism and that will bring more healthy economic recovery and growth in 2010.

With respect to the hi-tech industries sector, as represented by the NASDAQ. I have postulated that this industry is mainly represented by the metal element. As such, the prosperity of hi-tech industry requires the strong appearance of water and wood, which are symbols of productivity and money of the metal industry. In 2010 the wood element, meaning money profitability to hi-tech industries is not weak but is hidden underneath the metal. Also there is absence of water to support the wood. As such, it is anticipated that the year is favorable for hi-tech or internet types of business with some recovery and progress. But the absence of water and the suppress of wood under metal in this year could mean there are more activities without real substantial money gains.
unquote

I believe 2010 will see vast improvement compared with 2009. Hence, there is some reason to be optimistic. Well, accumulate quality shares if the opportunity arises. Good luck.

Its dividend for a full year assuming it is paying out 75% of its net profit as indicated in its prospectus is around RM220-00 per share.
If you managed to get it from IPO, you would have obtained a capital gain n if you hold it you would expect to get that amount of dividend annually.
As it is an investment grade share, it's price would climb slow and steady.

Of course the RM60 dividend per share now is unexpected. Most companies which are going public will most probably declare a maximum dividend for its existing shareholders before listing. Post listing, investors would have to wait for the next financial year for its dividends.

Oops............. sorry for the horrible mistake. I mean RM60 per 1000 shares.

From the Edge 28-12-09

quote
With the local mobile market already saturated with a penetration rate of over 100%, there is little room for growth .................................

But all is not lost; the new frontline that is being fought now is mobile broadband, which is heating up not only between the three main telcos but also among smaller players that are offering WiMAX as an alternative to 3G
unquote

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Added on December 27, 2009, 1:59 pm
Some food for thought

From the Edge 28-12-09

quote
With the local mobile market already saturated with a penetration rate of over 100%, there is little room for growth .................................

But all is not lost; the new frontline that is being fought now is mobile broadband, which is heating up not only between the three main telcos but also among smaller players that are offering WiMAX as an alternative to 3G
unquote

This post has been edited by Oracles99: Dec 27 2009, 01:59 PM

I have Celcom broadband n it is disappointing either. So, telcos are now investing massively into mobile broadband, the new battlefield.

By the way, Maxis recently announced its new broadband undergoing trial which double downloading speed n would be available in the Klang valley next year. Hope it would disappoint.

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Added on December 31, 2009, 11:46 pmI really do not trust these analyst. When they want to jack up the price, they would put a higher target price. For example, when Genting Singapore issued rights recently, the investment bank involved gave a rosy picture of the stock prompting a Hong kong billionaire to say that if you believe them, Genting Singapore would probably be the most profitable casino in the whole world! ( from The Edge)

This post has been edited by Oracles99: Dec 31 2009, 11:54 PM

The real problem is there is no bull run. In a bull run, even turkeys will fly.

CIMB reported Maxis dividend yield to be in the range of 8 to 9%.
It is expected to announce its results on Feb 19.

The telco business is a resilient business in good n bad times. Maxis has got a good free cash flow having completed its major infrastructure upgrading. There will still be growth even though it won't be fantastic.

But for the time being it would probably not move much. Its EPS will continue to increase over time n so will its price.

Its overseas operations held by AK's Maxis Communications is still in the red at present.


Compared with Axiata, it is probably more secure n if you want to speculate, try Aixata. Most of Aixata's overseas operations are in third world countries... Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan..... Making profit in these countries do not automatically mean profit when converted to MYR. The currencies of these third world countries are weak. Making great profits there may not be that great when translated into MYR. Or its profit from local operations may be pulled down by the less favourable exchange rates. It will probably take a long time before Axiata is able to declare small dividends.

Its consolidated Balance sheet may well show good profits but that profit is not cash flow.

This is the type of 'growth' promised by Axiata.

I would buy Axiata for speculation only. Its 'growth' tag would be able to attract investors to join this musical chair game.