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 Stock Market V36: Return of the Bull, Part IV, Bull defies Newton's Law of Gravity

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SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 02:59 PM)
I think next time I need to key in my order before posting... sad.gif
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You still have latexx hmm.gif
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Aug 7 2009, 03:27 PM)
Just want to know, how come Pelikan price sliding down from RM5 to the current price? Any share split or treasury share in between?
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Pelikan is very strong in Euro market, the economies and Euro could be strengthening.
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(dEviLs @ Aug 7 2009, 03:49 PM)
and this is really weird..another two call warrants on bursa are trading at much higher premium doh.gif  doh.gif
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Bursa CN at 20.5sen, Bursa should trade at rm 9.70 to break even ?

Right or wrong ?
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(dEviLs @ Aug 7 2009, 04:02 PM)
10 * 0.205 + 7.2 = 9.25
those who get in now must be very optimistic sweat.gif
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Bursa , rm 10 next year , no problem lah.

So many IPO, new call warrants and Sunway REIts



SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 04:12 PM)
If Bursa can hit $10 next year (Before warrants expire), and assume 0% premium, below is the expected gain
CL - 47%, CN - 37% CO- 12%

If $11
CL - 76%, CN - 85% CO- 61%

If $12
CL - 106%, CN - 134% CO- 110%

So, depends on how you bet.  tongue.gif  If Bursa drop below $8, then all also hangus. icon_rolleyes.gif
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That is IF CI falls to below 1000pts next year.
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 04:22 PM)
When invest, we need to consider all the risk, right? icon_rolleyes.gif
Anyway, Bursa's PE ratio is very scarry...
High risk, high gain. brows.gif  brows.gif
Based on my calculated risk, it is worth buying biggrin.gif

Added on August 7, 2009, 4:24 pmAgain, if you don't know what is warrant, pls ignore my posting.
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Only PE of 20 by next year with good business, on future earning potential.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 7 2009, 04:27 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 04:28 PM)
PE 20 is consider as very high in my standard...
Anyway, ppl that buy Bursa where got see PE ratio one! Buy Buy Buy!!!! laugh.gif
That's why I said worth the risk buying warrant, but mothershare... hmm.gif
BTW, I got more faith in PBB warrants in long term. brows.gif  brows.gif  brows.gif
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SGX is trading at above PE 24 to 26 X now, what is the market price ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 7 2009, 04:31 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 04:33 PM)
SGX now trading at S$8.39, If you use the same methodology, SGX also very worth buying. tongue.gif
Anyway, I got my SGX at S$4.79 drool.gif So  icon_rolleyes.gif
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World average is PE 22 ( stock Exchange )

Asia is PE 22-25

So time to sell ?
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(dEviLs @ Aug 7 2009, 04:44 PM)
pbb-cj is more attractive than another two IMO.. hmm.gif
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Bursa does not need lot of Capital to expand business volume. No bad debts , right.

Only computer system hangs if over trade.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 7 2009, 04:48 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 04:42 PM)
Bursa (based on current PE) is 41.58!!! As I said, ppl that buy Bursa don't look at PE ratio one.
SGX is much lower and healthier. tongue.gif . I'll keep my SGX for long term. Will wait long long until the price move back to S$15++ yawn.gif
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year 2008 is not a good year to use as base.

year 2009 F is more likely


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Earning_20Summary_090707.pdf ( 113.69k ) Number of downloads: 20
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 05:00 PM)
My STI counters drop more than what they gain yesterday. sad.gif
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No monkeys around, lol

CI crashed with 0.91plus

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 7 2009, 05:04 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 05:05 PM)
That will depends how much you trust Kenanga's analysis laugh.gif
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So long can make money ok lah.

They said to buy RCE Cap at 35sen also.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 7 2009, 05:10 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(htt @ Aug 7 2009, 05:02 PM)
Today STI Siong... DBS drop 50 cents...
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I realise SGX fundamentals change rapidly overnight one ?
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 7 2009, 05:12 PM)
S'pore national day, right? Long time didn't go to S'pore liao. Almost forgot everything in S'pore (except stocks biggrin.gif ). sad.gif
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better make sure SGX Building is still there ( intact ) rclxms.gif
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(htt @ Aug 7 2009, 05:18 PM)
Today DBS result out, provision charge up like hell, some more not provide % as much as before...
UOB also bad, almost same like DBS...
Only OCBC slightly better, with set off from their over allocation for CDO previously...
STI down fast up also fast tongue.gif


Added on August 7, 2009, 5:19 pm
SGX Building already sold loh, but the name remains the same tongue.gif
Btw, SGX result not that bad tongue.gif
Cheers... weekend coming...
Long weekend for Singapore... biggrin.gif
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I think SGX operates like Genting Casino nowaday ( Business Model )

Just my personal thinking only.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 7 2009, 05:28 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 7 2009, 05:30 PM)
You need to consider potential dividend given which will deduct out the share price.

Generous dividend is warrant's poison because warrant exercise price won't be adjusted due to generous dividend, nor warrant will get any dividend.

Any warrant underlying target stock which give dividend should trade at lower premium due to above mentioned reason,
Yup, this one I agree.

When market hit low time, or depressed at low price, no investment house issued or little CW being issued, after market run up and hot again, issue like mad. Eventually most retailers always buy high or having high exercise price on the CW.

Investment houses are not stupid, they won't issue CW when KNM was 0.3x, but they are willing to issue when KNM now is 0.85. Somemore alll issued at 30+% premium means stock price currently need to surge more than 30% in order to breakeven your purchased CW cost in a year time.

For short term quick goreng, different story.
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I think only 10 to 20sen price adjustment half yearly or 10sen /Q ( ex dividends )

Not much a problem

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 7 2009, 05:58 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 7 2009, 08:58 PM)
They got 15 million unemployed and Wall Street is celebrating.
The hang over will come in later.   shakehead.gif
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In situation like this, Obama might have to provide more free beer .

Meanwhile, just let Dow to move ahead.

Stock Market is a good place to create Wealth ( or lose your money ).

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 8 2009, 09:15 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 7 2009, 09:36 PM

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Maybe we should consider an alternative reason why Dow should be bullish.


AIG reports $1.82B profit for quarter, its first since 2007; says it sees some stability

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 7 2009, 09:38 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 8 2009, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 8 2009, 04:56 AM)
Feel free to post.. I'm too upset at the market now.  mad.gif
I'm going to pray for big black swan next week.  brows.gif

Have a good week end y'all.
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Investors have every right to hope for, like the share prices to drop and the economy turning to worse, so that they can buy at lower prices., or to enrich oneself.

But if the economy does improve, many thousands of jobs could be saved or created. And share market is a place, wealth can be created rapidly. ( if you do concern about 14.5 million unemployed Americans )

On that matter, I vote for US economy to turn better.

I see as a win win situation.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 8 2009, 10:39 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 8 2009, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(Junior83 @ Aug 8 2009, 11:27 AM)
ya, we will start mentioning bubble by that time  brows.gif

for now: i think it's better 1/2 leg in  & 1/2 leg out so up u oso happy and down u oso happy  laugh.gif , unless u plan for >3 years investment, buy now u will laughing all the way to bank after 3 years drool.gif
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Those days , i used to hear about 1/2 leg into the coffin theory, do not realise it is also applicable to Stock Market. biggrin.gif

1/2 Leg, i try to associate with Asset Allocation Model according to Valuation and Risks.

AS the share price goes higher, the risk is getting bigger generally, unless the fundamentals of the companies improve.
So it might be time to realise your gain slowly by converting to Cash ( FD/BONDS ).

50% cash/50% share starts when the market reaches a fair valuation , let say PE of 18X ( just an example ).
Buy more shares if fair valuation increases or share price drops, sell more shares if over valued, so your risk level is intact.

I just oversimplify as the subject of Asset Allocation is lengthy and yawn.gif rclxub.gif

And most investors are concerned with whether their shares would fly to the moon or not.

You are right in that sense.

P/s : it is just an investment model, does not mean all have to agree.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 9 2009, 08:49 AM

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