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 Stock Market V36: Return of the Bull, Part IV, Bull defies Newton's Law of Gravity

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jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 04:41 PM

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I believe tomolo is a good day to buy. Every Wednesday we see some drop in KLCI
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Aug 4 2009, 04:42 PM)
is a good idea, u sell i plan to accumulate tongue.gif

1.7 is a good price, i think u bought somewhere in Feb 09 - Dec 09 price pretty low bak than...

have a bit of faith in plantation, maybe you can avg down accumulate more even? (my thoughts)

I am planning to accumulate until Dec 09 and sell in Jan 2010 before CNY.

Liquidated 50% of Axreit to raise funds.

******************

Btw if you already have your own plan stick to it, is a good discipline.
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I think if average, is called average up already. Up about 30% from my buy price. Now thinking of buying more of HSP or other counters. Now still regretting why I want to sell off IJMP for some tiny profit.

Btw, which of the Plantation counters are still way undervalued? I'm thinking of entering my ex-lover BSTEAD. What do you think? BSTEAD better of HSP?
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Aug 4 2009, 10:49 PM)
Loh & Loh? i heard they specialise in water construction or something like that.

i've followed WCT since it was rm2, missed the boat then n kept watching it go up week after week.
followed Fajar since 0.90, now 1.20.

been hoping to buy at corrections, but its been nearly 3 weeks still no major fallback. bye.gif

my next target's a construction stock. now looking into buying opportunities, maybe HSL/others if their FA looks good.
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Wat makes you think construction stocks is a good buy now? Btw, example of construction stocks? Currently I've been playing with Property, Finance, Plantation, ONG, Consumer Products, Utility stocks only
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:09 PM

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QUOTE(DanielW @ Aug 4 2009, 11:08 PM)
What is the logic behind this approach of "buy on rumor, sell on news"?  blink.gif
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I think the big gun will accumulate when there is good news in the company, then we all shud start accumulate wif them, and the news out, sell else, will be stuck like dead fish
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 4 2009, 11:21 PM)
Erm....some people think that a large proportion of Mr. Najib's RM67billion stimulus package (over the next two years) is likely to end up in the pockets of the construction companies - particularly those involved in infra-structure works. hmm.gif
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I think his stimulus package is all talk only la. All the money will go supporting KLCI from going down the drain. We all have see how he always perform magic on Commerz, Sime, Tenaga and even Axiata.
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 4 2009, 11:24 PM)
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion so thank you for sharing yours with us icon_rolleyes.gif
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Well, that is just my point of view. I am still interested in finding good construction stocks, as I'm not holding one in my portfolio.
BTW, I just realize that OSKVI is not that bad after all. It consistently pays div, like OSKPROP and OSK.

jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Aug 4 2009, 11:29 PM)
Yes , it is.

The money dumped into infra structure.

Some big infra projects coming  from NS to Johor may involve cheap funding from China also.

Still in planning stage.
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Actually from my father, he told me that most bumi company are not paying for hardware, so, it is either the govt not giving them money, or they use it up to buy 52" LCD, merz etc. Those projects are actually govt turnkey projects where you can earn up to 100%-200%


Added on August 4, 2009, 11:37 pm
QUOTE(simplesmile @ Aug 4 2009, 11:30 PM)
I targeted a finance stock, but the boat has left without me.
My portfolio has 1 utility, 1 O&G, and 4 Consumers.
My next target is that damn finance stock. It's not dipping at all.
I don't buy Plantation and Construction. Reason being their earnings are cyclical. However, I may change my mind later on.
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I don't think Plantation counters earnings are cyclical. We may see dip in the earnings, but still earn money, just like consumer products. When bad times, these companies continue to give good div payout, and continue to generate earnings, and we still will see dip in the earnings. Just that consumer products' earnings dip can be neglected because it's sooooo little

This post has been edited by jasontoh: Aug 4 2009, 11:37 PM
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:41 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Aug 4 2009, 11:39 PM)
Commerz has a forklift to support it up.
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Yup. Very true. Not to say that bumiputra cannot handle banks or whatsever, but this is the current case for Commerz.

Btw, the story of those bumi contractor not paying for material is very true. It can either be the Govt not giving out funds or the contractor used up the money
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:47 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Aug 4 2009, 11:45 PM)
Our BNM Governor is one of the best in the whole world, must be the supports from Arabs . hmm.gif
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What do you mean by best in the whole world? How do you define best?

Anyway, one bank is awaiting cash injection from Dubai group
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 4 2009, 11:48 PM)
My problem with Plantation/CPO stocks is:

1. Seasonality - price varies Jan-Jun/Jul-Dec
2. ROSPO certification - this will be a huge issue among consumers
3. Competition from Indonesia (world's biggest producer)
4. Growing lobby in user countries against "unsustainable" CPO
5. Price volatility
6. Unwarranted link with CO price
7. No real future for bio-fuels
8. EU/US anti-CPO legislation

Err.....that's it......... hmm.gif
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Price volatility refers to CPO price or the stock price. The stock price move a lot? rclxub.gif
jasontoh
post Aug 4 2009, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 4 2009, 11:53 PM)
CPO price.
The other problem with plantation counters is that they do DUMB things - like KLK doing property and owning Crabtree and Evelyn.....
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Have to be like that lo. Else what to do with the land after 29 years of harvest?
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 4 2009, 11:55 PM)
It has been published many times (Economist, Far East Economic Review, Asian Wall Street Journal etc.) that she is extremely highly regarded by her peers. icon_rolleyes.gif


Added on August 4, 2009, 11:56 pm
Erm...how about "resting" the land and doing SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION???
That's what the green lobby against CPO is all about.... hmm.gif

Doh!
doh.gif
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Mind explaining what does this mean? Can't google it.
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 5 2009, 12:24 AM)
Can't Google it? laugh.gif
Here you go:

#
Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)
Key documents · Development of P&Cs · Review of RSPO Principles and Criteria for Sustainable Palm Oil Production · Revised RSPO Principles & Criteria ...
www.rspo.org/ - Cached - Similar
#
RI CPO exporters seek to comply with EU certification rules | The ...
18 Feb 2009 ... Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) exporters are preparing ... countries will have Sustainable CPO Certification to ensure that the production ...
www.thejakartapost.com/.../ri-cpo-exporters-seek-comply-with-eu-certification-rules.html - Cached - Similar
#
CPO Shipments to Europe Make Sustainability Gains - The Jakarta Globe
26 Jun 2009 ... The 27-nation bloc imports about 5.3 million tons of CPO from ... set firm deadlines for achieving 100 percent sustainable CPO production. ...
thejakartaglobe.com/business/cpo-shipments-to.../314632 - Cached - Similar
# [PDF]
SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION OF BIOFUEL CROPS
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View
production sustainable, nutrients and the organic substances needed by ... Biodiesel can be made almost from every fraction of Oil Palm,such as CPO, the ...
www.senternovem.nl/.../08a.%20Sustainable%20production%20of%20biofuel%20crops... - Similar
#
Friends of the Earth: Archived press release: Asda joins ...
The RSPO was formerly established on 8th April 2004 and on 23rd November 2005 adopted the "Principles and Criteria for sustainable Palm Oil Production". ...
www.foe.co.uk/.../asda_joins_roundtable_on_p_16122005.html - Cached - Similar
#
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy : Pathways to a more ...
From refining of crude oil to the more sustainable production of energy. ... own proprietary catalytic partial oxidation (CPO) technology to facilitate a ...
linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360319902000927 - Similar
by JW Gosselink - 2002 - Cited by 32 - Related articles - All 4 versions
#
Wilmar's PPB Oil Palms Bhd awarded sustainable CPO production ...
Business, Investment, Singapore, Asia, China News.
www.theedgesingapore.com/component/content/.../1746.html - Cached - Similar
#
Crude Palm Oil - What does CPO stand for? Acronyms and ...
What does CPO stand for? Definition of Crude Palm Oil in the list of ... areas that used to be rainforest; our biodiesel comes from sustainable production. ...
acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/Crude+Palm+Oil - Cached - Similar
#
MPOB lowers CPO production estimate
29 Aug 2007 ... On the positive side, local CPO output this year could also reach ... Sabri said MPOB was committed to the sustainable production of palm ...
biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2007/8/29/... - Cached - Similar
#
Nature Alert: RI CPO exporters seek to comply with EU ...
Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) exporters are preparing themselves to have ... have Sustainable CPO Certification to ensure that the production process of ...
naturealert.blogspot.com/.../ri-cpo-exporters-seek-to-comply-with-eu.html - Cached - Similar
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Thanks for the google result. Wonder what happen to Celcom 3G. Seems like very hard to do google search or go into google related page like blogspot, etc

Anyway for company standpoint, making profit for shareholders is the main priority, thus, after the 29 years of harvest...it will be developed especially those land in strategic location. Previously I also wonder why people would wanna kill a goose laying golden eggs, but when I asked a senior of mine working as commodity trader in KLK, the reason most palm oil company developed the land is because of fast cash. Palm oil plantation needs about 7 years before we can get the harvest, so what are they going to do with the 7 years of no income? There are other news about EU conspiracy on the palm oil vs soy oil, euro vs SEA, etc, but I presume all those are just theory.
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 12:48 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 5 2009, 12:41 AM)
"Anyway for company standpoint, making profit for shareholders is the main priority...."

That is true of course; but don't underestimate the power of the consumer lobby among certain consumer countries. As long as India and China couldn't give a toss - and their consumption continues to increase - then plantation stocks should be fine. brows.gif


Added on August 5, 2009, 12:45 am
Palm oil plantation needs about 7 years before we can get the harvest, so what are they going to do with the 7 years of no income?

One guy found an answer to that problem.
Check out: www.chgs.com.my
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Was asked to join the scheme before, but I ended up din join. Pay 22K for 1 acre of land, then 1st 3 years giving about 7% return (guaranteed), after that follow CPO price. It is like playing pure plantation counters, jz tat you are owning the land

This post has been edited by jasontoh: Aug 5 2009, 12:49 AM
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 12:55 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 5 2009, 12:53 AM)
You don't own the land - they do. Until it's sold at the end of the scheme.
Very clever idea and I'm sure a lot of people have been suckered into it - but not me. icon_idea.gif
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Me too brows.gif I see a lot of fools signing up also when that leng lui promoter tell me the benefit, saying I invest in stock not guaranteed, but this one is guaranteed
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 01:03 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 5 2009, 12:58 AM)
Aparently it's been very successful and thousands have signed up for it. There is even a CHGS forum on LYN somewhere where people are trying to sell their 'shares' IIRC. You should go and have a look and see what these "investors" say - if you want a laugh! brows.gif
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Lucky me that did not get persuade by that leng lui. Else I will be doh.gif . Usually I alwiz ended up buying something from pretty promoters mad.gif vmad.gif
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Aug 5 2009, 09:51 AM)
Najib is distributing free sheep,  why the need to steal chicken ?
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Today his counter suffering some minor setback. When is he distributing free sheep? brows.gif
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 10:15 AM

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Seems like regional market is recovering. Btw, US spending up shud b a good news right?
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Aug 5 2009, 11:00 AM)
thread feels n looks pretty dead today.
i've got deadweights in my portfolio. not going up or down.
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Haha....same here, although CCMDBIO seems like going up a lot today. Anyway, this counter is for long term, up or not moving, also couldn't care less
jasontoh
post Aug 5 2009, 11:06 AM

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Wah...I din realize HSP now 2.28, yee yee fatt

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