Crazy oil speculators... they're seems to be tip toeing back.

Anyway, US crude supplies inventory are down but distilled fuel and gasoline inventories are up.

Not sure how far Oil can move up.. perhaps up to $65 and if
gasoline/distilled inventories does not go down, we'll definitely see a pullback.
You cannot forever make TVs if the shops aren't selling them, right?

IMO, DJ up too much, as do S&P500. It is close to hitting resistant and we may see pull back here -
perhaps tomorrow, people may take some profits.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 16 2009, 12:36 AM

Good morning y'all sleepy heads! Wakey wakey and smell profits!!!

Anyway.. this morning has been the one of those euphoric money chasing bull session @ NYSE.

Here's the results:

DJ 8616.21 +256.72 +3.07%
NAS 1862.90 +63.17 +3.51%
S&P500 932.68 +26.84 +2.96%

In summary, S&P500 broke above two levels of resistance line.. at 910 and 930.in one trading session.

It all started with Intel, they beat the street estimates news yesterday after close, and we expect that to gap up already.

The energy sector ETF (XLE) spiked 2% up on oversold condition for the Oil Services sector.
Two hours in trading, US Oil inventories came in with report being drawn down but gasoline actually is up.
I was puzzled as first, like I have said earlier how can TVs sales are bullish when people aren't buying but yet the manufacturers are reporting low inventory now? The market seems to completely ignore this.
It is suppose to be a wash, but heck, since crude oil price came up $1 higher last night from Asia (with indication that China is sucking up more), Nymex traders decided to jack it up anyway, now are above the $61.. on the way back to $65 again.

It is almost like fire sale.. I can't believe my eyes when the leverage ETF Oil that I had bought gone
above 8% in one trading session. Gotta take some profits there!
Crazy isn't it?

By mid session, the US Fed pumps out more good news, economy expected to contract less.
Another notch up on the indices..

Lastly, two major credit card providers (AMEX and Capital One) reported that they're are seeing less delinquencies.. in June, with that.. S&P500 crossed over the 2nd resistance line.

This is crazy market (or maybe people just don't want it to tank).

Just one week ago, we're doom, with visible heads and shoulders and now we're yelling RECOVERY!
Let's BUY BUY BUY! Woo hoo!

Let see if KLSE can rally off this one.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 16 2009, 04:55 AM

I think the news keep spinning... and momentum keeps building for now.
I was on line chatting with a lot of live traders and people who are actually living in US.

People out in the streets aren't better off yet eventho the news are reporting that conditions are getting better.

In the state of Michigan, with the auto industry massive layoff,
millions already unemployment.

California IOUs are worthless, and the state is going on default. Excessive homes with no buyers.. prices are still plummeting.
REITs aren't seeing recovery yet. Where exactly are the green shoots?

The companies perhaps are reporting less worse because of bottom line: they cut off excess, made it it look good on their books
and look good enough for Wall Street to rally.

Honestly, I do think the market got way ahead of itself.. perhaps setting up for another big correction.

Do be very careful and cautious and keeps the tight stops for those trading.
If the music stops, make sure you have the chair.

GL to all!

*** Stop Trading ***

Ok.. guys! Please take a break now..

Wanting to let you all know.. the momentum we had last night @ NYSE may not last after the weekend or perhaps as early Friday. Most traders agree this is just short covering.. volume is a moderate only.

So, if you got chance to take some profits and your purchase is high at BB side. Do it NOW!

MM wants to take down the market after JPCM report to complete the Head and Double Shoulders.

Don't play with Oil Futures. This will kill you.

Oil futures are completely unpredictable and they roll over every month.
If Oil stays flat, the underlying funds will decay unless you're own the big
storage tanker and actually buy real oil and store 'em in your yard.

Currently, there are too much Oil in the market now. Prices will continue to go down.

No, OPEC won't let that happen.
If Oil falls to $20, Oil companies might as well shut down and do nothing than to lose money to drill it out.

Current Trend:
Low end is $45-$55, Fair value =$55-$65, High=$65-$75
Worst case scenario, depression case= $20-$30.

Do you know if oil falls, Malaysia economy will also fall ?

The short interests are slowly building up, but bulls aren't budging.
Let see how long they can hold.

IMO, this market is bit oversold already n the upside and I'm afraid, the good news may already been price in.
(eg. JPM this morning). Any negative news from here.. this will take it down big time.
But, let see if Google, BAC , etc can rally it at least one more round.


I'm hedging 20% short, 30% long, 50% cash.

Bulls or Bears, let see who wins.

---

Added on July 17, 2009, 1:23 amA lot of people on that thread are hoping that there will be mysterious buyer to jump in
and buy up later to spike up the price. What do you think?


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 17 2009, 01:23 AM

Another rally day!

DJ 8711.82 +95.61 +1.11%
NAS 1885.03 +22.13 +0.86%
S&P500 932.6 8 +8.06 +0.86%

As expected, Google and IBM beat street estimates for earnings after closing.
Google close down after hours because price already factored in - as usual, profit taking at works.
IBM raised guidance, confidence it can even profit more in next quarter.

Tomorrow it is option expiration day. Most won't strike because of the upbeat tone and
we may be able to retain the gains or flat. I would expect some profit taking in early session.

Oil seems to retain gains too.. still around high $61, perhaps may cross over $62 by tomorrow.
Speculators are eager to hear the recession is over! Here's come the bull.

We can see the bears are giving up already.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 17 2009, 04:39 AM

CIT went down 37 cents after hours.. but for those who wants to speculate and if they can pull through
with a buyer, this 40 cents can double to $1 easily.

In this economy, the tough will survive and gain more market share.

Btw, Cisco denies any more new layoffs. The layoff already been planned in Feb and now just executing.
They're lean and mean now and should beat street estimates with no problem. They call it ahem "limited restructuring".

This quarter, all tech companies are doing very well, perhaps a lot of them already trimmed the excess and guided down their earnings.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 17 2009, 07:29 AM

Oh..Really? Is that a surprise?

About 1-2 months ago, their directors already dumping shares but when questioned during the UA call by Bursa, they claimed it is margin calls.

Every bulls at the Compugt thread says their books were pretty and rosy - and even if they're bankrupt, their net assets are worth more than the price of their share (7 sens) and hoping there gonna be a savior to buy up these shares.

Don't you think the directors already knew in advance that their revenue stream already in jeopardy?

How much now?

Already got four days of rally.. good enough lah!
Everyone depends on US market earnings. If no earnings report week, where can rally?

After rally and a bit of pullback for profit taking, this will set the new base and the mini bulls will continue.

Crazy terrorist.. nothing better to do.

Hey.. maybe they're planning to short Indonesia Stock market, that's probably why.

Goodness. within 1 minute, scored RM664?

Now, all you have to do is continue to do it for the next 8 hours = full 1 day job,
you don't have to work for couple of years.

TD Ameritrade

You know.. it is exactly like Nigeria.

If the Oil price gets to too low.. Oil cartel conspire with Nigeria terrorists to blow up a few pipelines
to spike up the prices.. over and over again.

That's correct. If oil goes to $20, the world is in depression already.
Deflation is worse than inflation. We definitely don't want that.

This morning at NYSE, reversal suppose to happen but didn't and instead we get the extra 1% because Dr. Doom report that we will see recession ending by end of the year. Yeah.. right. Sure.. yet millions are still unemployed, millions of homes are foreclosed in US, those toxic assets got written off like nothing has happened.

Tonight, I will reduce my long position and increase my short position. IMO, market already got too hot.

Like WB said.. when people are greedy, I'm afraid.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 17 2009, 12:29 PM

Both BAC, C and GE results aren't impressive. We're running out of steam already.
Option Ex. Friday - will not expect much volume tonight since most didn't strike.

But, does offer last chance to exit and set new position before the ellipse next week.

Well, I believe these banks continue to cook the books, sometimes to make it look better for the quarterly results.



The thing that really make it better for them during the last two quarters, there were a lot of mortgages
re-adjustment that basically help them to bring in more revenues. After they have subsided and if the economy
does not improve, housing sale doesn't pickup, I'm don't think there will be up trending from here, which means 3rd quarter results will be bad - we'll definitely see another run down.

Anyway, for some reason today, Oil is trading higher tonight. Back up above $63.
It may go to $65 by next week if there is worry about inflation and USD.
Oil was lagging a bit during the this week run up.. now seems to pick up a bit
Sometimes, Oil doesn't follow stocks, it runs on its own. Completely unpredictable.
So much for fear of oversupply now.

I believe stocks will continue to run a bit higher and retest the resistance at 8800-8900.
If it can break thru, we'll have a bull run there, otherwise far right head & shoulders forming again.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 17 2009, 10:55 PM