QUOTE(sleepwalker @ Jan 27 2010, 02:56 PM)
You don't get what I mean. I'm not talking about long term fundamentals. I'm talking about tonight. I'm talking about fundamental announcements. Did your technical analysis show a 100 pip drop in GU yesterday due to a poor GDP in 30mins? No but the Fundamental Announcement did when it announced GDP lower than expected and the GU dropped like a rock.
So, with your mighty technical analysis, what does it show you tonight if Bernanke does not get the votes? Or what happens if he gets the vote and resigns? What happens if he gets the votes and stays on but announces possible interest rate hike in Q2? There is nothing in your technical analysis that can beat those news.
I'm rather sad that we have people trading in forex with such little understanding of the trade itself. On a day like this, the day before the FOMC, there is one thing that technicals do not show you. Technicals will not tell you NOT TO TRADE on the day before FOMC due to the lack of direction. Technicals will show you a possible trend but all trends can be changed with news.
Your current analysis shows a bearish tread. That's fine if nothing happens with tonight's FOMC. Things go on as your per analysis. However, if Bernie were to said something that the market didn't like, it's going to go against your analysis.
thanks bro
i will take it as an advice , as i'm also use fundamental analysis to know what is current situation that would affect on my trade later.
For example , during NFP storm and FOMC , yerp ..i will take it as a risk .
This including news from CNN,BBC or FF forum .
if GU , for instance, dropped like wat you said , it is better to put trailing stop , better safe than never .
i can't agreed you more on technical analysis fallacy but for me , 20-30% from my trading winning comes from technical analysis view.