Where did everyone go?
DJ is green.. quadruple witching day, they call this!
Stock Market V31@V28d: Bull vs. Bear, Welcome all Big Sharks & Ikan Bilis
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Jun 19 2009, 10:05 PM
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#1
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
Chop! Chop!
Where did everyone go? DJ is green.. quadruple witching day, they call this! |
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Jun 20 2009, 04:24 AM
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#2
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
OUCH OUCH OUCH!!!
Got bitten today by bears at Wall Street. Didn't really expect Oil to drop but it did. Besides that, quadruple witching Friday - people selling off commodities, too much negative sentiments! Therefore you guys at KLSE didn't do too bad.. ..<sigh> This new thread better bring good karma next week.. |
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Jun 20 2009, 10:12 PM
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#3
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(mememe12 @ Jun 20 2009, 10:17 AM) Good for you. You missed the bear market so it is actually your gain. Added on June 20, 2009, 10:42 pm QUOTE(edwardlow @ Jun 20 2009, 06:11 PM) Bad for Oil export country,Malaysia's economy will stuck.Our vision 2020 tat set by Tun Mahathir will be unreachable. IMO, @ $60-$65/barrel, Malaysia should be ok because that's what most oil producing countries willing go for..@ Over $70.. a bit overshoot since the demand isn't really there. a bit of pullback here is expected. Oil bulls tried to break through $72, 3 times this week but didn't win and the last trading session, traders just sold off and given up. Besides, with options expired, next week, they'll trading the next month delivery. Oil may most likely pull back to $65 ~ $70, still reasonable profits for oil producing countries and it should not dampen economy recovery. But, speculators may keep pumping this up another month if they think we got too much USD floating around due to Uncle Sam printing or signs of recession is ending soon (<ahem>.."less bad" For next week, we're at the cross road again..it can go up or down but it is bearish sign for commodity and energy stocks (oil, metals, etc) because of overshoot the last 2-3 weeks. Some people expect DJ to pull back to 8200 (another 200-300 points off), S&P to 875-900. Not sure what KLCI will do.. perhaps maybe another +/-10 points? This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 20 2009, 10:42 PM |
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Jun 21 2009, 09:32 AM
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#4
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(mynewuser @ Jun 21 2009, 08:52 AM) Those who want to get profit can consider to buy some. Look at the explanation below. Not yet... short term.. look for 50 more points drop to 1000 first, closer back to the 50 day MA. Positive sign emerges http://bursa88.blogspot.com/2009/06/positi...gn-emerges.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^KLSE&t=2y...0&a=m26-12-9&c= This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 21 2009, 09:37 AM |
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Jun 21 2009, 10:30 AM
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#5
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(moorish @ Jun 21 2009, 10:03 AM) Looks like H1N1 case is getting worse, retail biz recorded a drop, exactly how many % drop are caused by H1N1 over the end of school holidays is not known but the effect is there to see. Aiya! This H1N1 is way overblown and overreacted by our govt. They are so paranoid, they are themselves causing panicHang on guys we may have another roller coaster ride next week. I really feel like selling off tgoffs and just keep uchitec until I can see clearer which way this is going. Then again I may miss the boat. Added on June 21, 2009, 10:06 am I dun think this is the case, normally when they want the counter to look nice next opening phase they will buy 1 - 10 lot, but in this case its few hundred lot. From my own analysis : 1: someone is cheating some fund money, thats why they buy in the very last minute at a specific price, they're the culprit who que at that price. 2: I cant think of a second view thats why need you guys CSI expert. in the business community.. Come'on.. 42 out of 25 million people in Malaysia.. we call this pandemic?? There are more people with infectious diseases like TB than H1N1 that has actually has die in Malaysia every year, yet they don't make an issue out of it. So funny. the our health ministry said.. it is okay not to shake hands..we should nod or bow instead We turned into Japanese? Anyway, people, please don't read those silly scary news in the local paper especially coming from the government. They're meant not to educate you, but to scare you only. Ok - as for your last observation - the fund manager does this at times to those low price and low volume stock and they wanna to attract those ikan bilis and then dump it later to catch them. So, do be careful with those. Is this illegal? Yes, price manipulation is illegal but difficult to catch. They can always provide excuses that this is normal day trading activity. When insider do this (see <cough>compugate<cough>), they'll get served with UMA from Bursa but still they can pretend to be ignorant. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 21 2009, 10:31 AM |
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Jun 21 2009, 11:46 AM
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#6
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(goognio @ Jun 21 2009, 11:29 AM) Guys, pls read this article.good one What BS! Andy Xie, former Morgan Stanley economist and current board member of Rosetta Stone Advisors shares some thoughts on the stock market rally and the Fed. Regardless of what investors or speculators say to justify their punting, the real driving force is the return of animal spirit. After living in fear for more than a year, they just couldn't sit around any longer. So they decided to inch back. The resulting market appreciation emboldened more people. All sorts of theories began to surface to justify the market trend. Now that the rising trend has been around for three months globally and seven months in China, even the most timid have been unable to resist. They're jumping in, in droves. When the least informed and most credulous get into the market, the market is usually peaking. A rising economy and growing income produces more funds to fuel the market. But the global economy is now stuck with years of slow growth. Strong economic growth won't follow the current stock market surge. This is a bear market rally. People who jump in now will lose big. The dollar index-DXY has fallen 10 percent from the March level, even though the U.S. trade deficit has declined substantially. It reflects the market's expectations that the Fed's monetary policy will lead to inflation and a dollar crash. The cause of dollar weakness is the outflow of U.S. money, in my view. It is the primary cause of a surge in emerging markets and commodities. Most U.S. analysts think the dollar's weakness is due to foreigners buying less of it. This is probably incorrect. The dollar's weakness can limit Fed policy options. It heightens inflation risks; a weak dollar imports inflation and, more importantly, increases inflation expectations, which can be self-fulfilling in today's environment. The Fed has released and committed US$ 12 trillion (83 percent of GDP) for bailing out the financial system. This massive overhang in money supply could cause hyperinflation if not withdrawn in time. So far, the market is still giving the Fed the benefit of the doubt, believing it will indeed withdraw the money. Dollar weakness reflects the market's wavering confidence in the Fed. If the wavering continues, it could lead to a dollar collapse and make inflation self-fulfilling. The Fed may have to change its stance, even using token gestures, to assure the market it won't release too much money. For example, signaling rate hikes would soothe the market. But the economy is still in terrible shape; unemployment may surpass 10 percent this year. Any suggestion of hiking interest rates would dampen growth expectations. The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. Don't believe a word from that bearish Andy Xie who was fired from Morgan Stanley. Two years ago, he claimed China will crash from self-imploding due to its hyper-growth and also his negative views on Singapore as center for money laundering. This is a bull session now! DJ scored 2000 points from its low.. making its way to bull market soon.. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 21 2009, 11:51 AM |
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Jun 22 2009, 12:02 AM
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#7
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
Speaking of the H1N1 scare, has anyone thought about how to profit from it?
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Jun 22 2009, 01:52 AM
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#8
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
Yeah but those companies only make gloves. Not really what people will be using more everyday.
If it is really pandemic.. you'll see people want to wear masks and buy more hand sanitizers. Any companies that you can think of? This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 22 2009, 01:53 AM |
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Jun 22 2009, 01:32 PM
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#9
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
Everyone, be careful this week. Oil is dropping fast since June 11, perhaps
may drop back to $66 by end of this week. It is very bearish.. DJ may drop back to 8200. Put in your stop loss. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 22 2009, 01:32 PM |
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Jun 23 2009, 12:48 AM
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#10
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(MoonRider @ Jun 23 2009, 12:09 AM) yes posted before .. i just want to remind you guys out there .... if u ask , how many has been trap last week .. until now .. lots of people stuck there and cut loss .. The bears are out in full force tonight at DJ. Eating up almost two months of profits for those who have hold.Kill a lot of people who has bought high about 3-4 weeks ago. Blood everywhere now.. |
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Jun 23 2009, 01:11 AM
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#11
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(omores @ Jun 23 2009, 01:00 AM) Wow now everyone suddenly bearish, even more bearish than me? Time to buy by end this week/next week then. Ha! Still awake eh?How this.. "Further declines are expected this week. Oil commodities continue to be sold off, US treasuries are being sold off, all REIT and higher than expected unemployment claims continue to surge for 2nd quarter. Basically the DJ will drop to 8000, S&P to 850." |
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Jun 23 2009, 01:28 AM
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#12
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
I can't believe you guys are still watching this.. ha!!
Yes! Sea of blood at DJ tonight. Closing in to 200 pts now.. Tomorrow.. those people at KLSE will have another chance of LELONG sale! I've gone the other direction since this morning.. SHORT'ing..'em. |
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Jun 23 2009, 01:37 AM
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#13
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
For those who are still awake tonight - what do you guys think of the H1N1 scare so far??
Any counters that will benefit your pocket during this time? |
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Jun 23 2009, 04:03 AM
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#14
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(mememe12 @ Jun 23 2009, 02:51 AM) QUOTE(David_Brent @ Jun 23 2009, 03:11 AM) Ding, Ding, Ding!! It's all over!!! DJ -200 POINTS! S&P -28 NAS -61 Yeah, in the 6 hours get ready for fire sale!!!! |
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Jun 23 2009, 07:03 AM
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#15
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
Well, looks like the Govt now officially lower the forecast to another -1%, down to -5%, and the
govt continues to foresee "more economic challenges". Let see.. maybe that should translate to -200 points drop for KLCI.. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 23 2009, 07:04 AM |
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Jun 23 2009, 08:04 AM
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#16
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 23 2009, 07:53 AM) yes, exactly. ci could reached 800 pts. should study back the feng shui chart then. their prediction is 1 month delay may due to chinese calendar. Damn... that FengShui chart cow does look depressed for the month of June. dj red, ci green. Added on June 23, 2009, 8:05 am QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 23 2009, 07:56 AM) Fook Kwai what??? This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 23 2009, 08:05 AM |
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Jun 24 2009, 01:24 AM
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#17
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
Good evening everyone!
Just woke up to trade again at NYSE!! DJI as expected to go headless direction in tight range until Fed testify tomorrow. The housing data that just came actually is good but not good enough to drive Dow higher because it was less than expected. Oh heck.. why the market so picky right? At least the carnage has stopped and housing is bottoming already. Anyway, the REIT in US now are in distress and good to invest if you have the $$. As for these past weeks, the correction is probably anticipated by some and some of us are caught in this. But, don't worry, it will come back up.. maybe not as fast as we want this time until we get better data from most companies reporting their second quarter earnings ending this month. As for commodity - Oil!! This is a love - hate relationship. Most analysts are saying we got too much Oil in floating tankers now, consumers are not driving, traveling or consuming that much, ample supply of gasoline/petrol for the next 2-3 weeks, therefore we should expect Oil to continue to fall to low $60 in near term. Last Friday, Oil suddenly fell below $70.. happened during mid-day trading, same time when options expired. The thing that exacerbated the drop yesterday is when World Bank said world economy remains bearish and to expecting the global economy to shrink by 2.9 percent (instead of projected 1.7 percent 3 months ago), that mainly has spooked some traders because they're expecting rest of the world to recover in 6 months. As in stands now, Oil has recover a bit, back over $68, now trading August month for delivery - anticipating continuous demand for the rest of summer months in the upper hemisphere. It it is hitting the resistance wall at $70 now. So, for those wanting to get into Oil companies now, don't jump in yet. GL! |
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Jun 24 2009, 05:25 AM
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#18
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
QUOTE(omores @ Jun 24 2009, 04:01 AM) Actually, Dow close at -16.10 (-0.07%), Nas -1.27 (0.07%). Good earnings numbers from Oracle could lift Nasdaq up a little.Other than that, I would consider this a flat day - no gains, no loss, no bloodshed. Oil is actually still green as of EST 4:01pm, 68.54 (Oil trades into extended hours at NYMEX). Oil has gained 2.89% from yesterday 67.06 around the same time. Tomorrow will be critical as US Feds continues their meeting on monetary policy and also Oil Inventory report will be out tomorrow. Btw, I believe Bernanke should stay in job. Hopefully, Obama won't fire him. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 24 2009, 05:26 AM |
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Jun 24 2009, 09:21 AM
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#19
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
Please sell into the rally. It won't last. More bad news coming for next 2 days!!
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Jun 24 2009, 09:27 PM
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#20
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All Stars
10,125 posts Joined: Aug 2007 |
Green shoots for tonight at DJ (due to durable goods).
Traders are still very cautious about what the Bernake has to say later about interest rate. |
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