Now just log in to see today market.

Busy and outstation.

Sorry for the delay of pin.

I am glad the oil price drop below 70.

Oil is better stuck in the range or 50-60 before economy recover, if not, recovery might be dampened by high oil price.

Economy is simple, most people have fixed wages across, if one is having 1000 monthly let said, and need to spend most of his/her money for pumping petrol, then there is little money left for others goods, so how can economy can recover and growing robust again?

Unless under one situation, wages also grow in line with inflation across, but this just means people previously wages is 1000 now become 2000, while petrol price from 1.80 to 3.60. Then everything back to square one but just with high number. And this means what? Previously hard-earned save money shrinking across, you have no real net grow of the economy in this way.

If economy is not growing, don't expect stock market can go further up.

The only way to make big buck from the stock market is hoping for economy growing again. If the economy stay a -ve, trying to squeeze some profit in a bear market and price spike in between the stock is a dangerous game to play with, no different than trying to find gold in a place full of land mines.

dsugums is right, the fear of the flu is not about now, but the potential and probability of the virus mutates into deadly strain which flu virus generally does.

Once it become a full blown deadly virus, there is no turning back, million of people life will under thread, as it is air-borned and spread through human to human.

While for dengue, we knew it is the mosquitos is the medium which cannot spread to human to human which is more easy to control compared to human human contact.

This is why it is a high profile disease, although it is not dangerous and still relative low cases compared to others known diseases.

Those TA-WB holders converted one must be cursing now, TA back to 1.00.

We might have another chance to buy Tanjong at 13.00 or below.

Market tone/trend has changed from previous few week of bullishness.

I don't think we need to scare much about the correction coming, as market sink, oil and gold price follow suit which is a tremendous good news.

Stock has risen so much for the last 2 month, giving back some gain is kinda norm only.
Stock market run out of upside room without real economy recover, which I posted several week before. Do we expect KLCI back to 1300 or 1500 without seeing economy registered postive growth of 4-5% at least?
Kind of not realistic, right?

Stock market or share price cannot run away too much with the fundamental, that's is always the key factor that determine where share price should be.

For Tanjong, if one sees it can achieve 15-16 over the 3-5 years, whether current market share price might sink to 10 or 8, doesn't matter actually. In fact if it does, it just opens up a window opportunity only.

Little green across only at least until now, but goreng stock in KLSE shoot up like scare don't have chance to buy.

No lah, just means other chasing like "scare don't have chance to buy" (hokkien). Mee Goreng? mostly "digoreng" only. No offence.

Another one month to go, around end of July will know.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 23 2009, 04:47 PM

If regional bourses contiue to be reddish across, I don't see why KLCI should turn green.

May be Malaysia Boleh again by last minute to prop up the KLCI to green zone.

A lot of theory is logic, but practical wise, it could turn out some other thing else which depended on situation which is changing constantly.

Theory vs practical is always 2 different thing. I prefer the later.

Just like compugt theory, it can be both side of story.

1. Somebody is blocking the upside, so keep on having enormous volume and seller, so once this goes away, it will shoot to upside.

or

2. So many people buy also cannot up, bearish as buyer just piling up the the Q, never buy the sell Q means the buyer Q is not strong or actually wish to buy one.

Both side also a logic story.

I just list out 2 possibility of contradicting theory. Whether which is correct, doesn't matter in this discussion.

Nobody knows what is actually happening except the syndicate or Goh themselves, any theory out there just a speculation what is potential be, it could be 90% true (you still have 10% chance, it is the other side of story), but syndicate won't reveal or let anyone knows what they are actually doing.
Not to say the theory is correct or not.

There is no rigid strategy adopted by syndicate, generally goreng syndicate will change according to market condition. You don't goreng up the share if DJ and all bourses plunging severely, right? They probably will let the share sink in those day (even though they have planned to goreng it on the day), and wait the market sentiment turn better, only goreng up it.

My 2 cents.

It just could be it is reaching someone target price, so selling, while buyer see big sell Q, then rather wait at 1.20.

Or

it could be your previous theory.

Actually we don't need to bother too much what theory, why speculate and guess what others (be it genuine fund manager or goreng syndicate) will do then dictate your decision making.

If you think the stock is on the way going up, then just buy.
If you think the stock is having good value, then just buy.


If you think the stock fundamental will be poor forward, just sell.
If you think the stock valuation is too rich, beyond its fundamental value, just sell.

The reason why people opt for fundamental investing? is to keep life simple.

Company make good profit and give good dividend, surely share price will go up.

For FSL trust, I studied before.

The high yield come from its cashflow not solely form profit means major chunk of cashflow come from depreciation that eating up the profit.
That's why it has high yield.

If the yield come from profit alone, I don't think the share price will remain at current high yield.

Means that once reach end of life of their vessels based on the depreciation, they need to raise borrowing to buy new vessel to continue the business (in theory). Practically wise, some old retired (based on depreciation year) vessel still worth something left.

Don't mean it is good or not good, just explain the actual situation.

Yup, Malaysia reit is more conservative. Actually Malaysia company is more conservative across.

Overseas reits can be quite risky as well, not the like we see in Malaysia, some of their gearing are pretty high one. We had some casualty on reit when credit frozen time after Lehman issue, wherehy they can't refinance their huge borrowing, ended in problematic situation.

Shipping trust is more risky than real estate trust.

We are in a 'stuck period' probably for sometimes, at least for near term period.

Beyond 1100, not much room for upside as company earning won't be too good without economy improving.

But we also have passed the worst or chaotic situation of financial market, so below 950 possibility is quite low, unless we have another Lehman case.

Even DJ also 'stuck' at 8xxx level without major break through on both side.

US housing still not yet recover, new home sales is still down, average housing price still on the way down. So there is still long way to go.

A solid economy recovery in US should be accompanied by improving housing sector which is the root of current financial mess and recession.

The reason is that the flu itself is not dangerous, it doesn't kill or mortality rate is very low.

So there is no fear of catching one resulted it won't affect too much on people daily life.
Precautious move and high alert adopted by most countries health department is to prevent it to spread more and mutates which later part is the reason of preventive measure.

It is not a serious disease if one catches it.

No lar, every Thursday is jobless claim number.

Employment data is monthly figure which is released on the first Friday of the month.

Anyone can start V32 now.

26th.

Yes