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 Stock Market V31@V28d: Bull vs. Bear, Welcome all Big Sharks & Ikan Bilis

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David_Brent
post Jun 19 2009, 01:28 PM

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Signing in for Version 28D - or is it Version 28C tongue.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jun 19 2009, 01:29 PM
David_Brent
post Jun 19 2009, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jun 19 2009, 10:07 PM)
ya surprised me, this thread is moving slow since i last left, friday party ka everyone laugh.gif

and yay, dow future is green, so does our DJIA. hopefully a better new start on next week~~!!
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Hope so. hmm.gif
My week was dreadful. I have saved my capital - but all my gains for the last month gone. doh.gif
I need to know when to sell.
Monday, my MKLand was nearly 2K up - today it is barely 0.3K up. rclxub.gif

I need to know how to control the itchy finger.
Buying at the wrong price is a very difficult problem to recover from.
Failing to sell at the right time is even worse.


sweat.gif

David_Brent
post Jun 19 2009, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(seanlel @ Jun 19 2009, 10:25 PM)
You so lucky, at least you managed to save your capital... Not saying earning, I encounter lose in capital as well... cry.gif
*
I am so sorry...I hope your trading next week will help you to recover.
Going up the counters produce nice gains but the drops are vicious and it's so depressing seeing your gains or your capital evaporate.
Best of luck to you and all our fellow posters on here.
icon_rolleyes.gif
David_Brent
post Jun 20 2009, 11:38 PM

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Wah! So many experts on here and so many predictions. hmm.gif

Guess they must all be making so much money since all are so smart laugh.gif
David_Brent
post Jun 22 2009, 01:11 AM

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QUOTE(Brotherjoe @ Jun 22 2009, 01:03 AM)
How about supermax?
*
Nah.
Hartalega.
Anything else is secondary.
David_Brent
post Jun 23 2009, 01:11 AM

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QUOTE(omores @ Jun 23 2009, 01:00 AM)
Wow now everyone suddenly bearish, even more bearish than me? Time to buy by end this week/next week then. smile.gif  I love reading all your prophecies of doom. smile.gif The earlier you guys act on it and dump the shares, I would reach my target buy price in no time.
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Wow!

There is an old saying:

"Misery loves company"

So many posters on here want to keep company with misery.

Makes them 'feel better' laugh.gif


Added on June 23, 2009, 1:13 am
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 23 2009, 01:11 AM)
Ha! Still awake eh?

How this..

"Further declines are expected this week.  Oil commodities continue to be sold off, US treasuries are being sold off, all REIT and higher than expected unemployment claims continue to surge for 2nd quarter. Basically the DJ will drop to 8000, S&P to 850."  brows.gif
*
rclxms.gif

maybe change your nick to "Doomcake"? nod.gif

We're doomed! All doomed!!

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jun 23 2009, 01:13 AM
David_Brent
post Jun 23 2009, 01:15 AM

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QUOTE(speed7791 @ Jun 22 2009, 11:03 PM)
u'd probably change your perspective when you look back today... from next week as far as letting go your Tanjong is concerned.

its really not too difficult to see where we're headed in general. don't bother with specifics cos it comes almost naturally as we go deeper. the general picture would be enough to raise our level of alertness n prompt us to go into deeper research. this is not a normal cyclical recession in case if you're still wondering. those who still think that its going to be a V shape recovery is going to be so dissapointed it'll feel like living thru last year's economic kaboom all over again x 2.

warning signs r everywhere. we choose not believe o give heed to it when we have a lot at stake. i feel the same when i'm in the market but last year's lesson was about being balance n prudent. i don't try to be an expert cos there r already many credible experts out there. i search them out. their advises have been invaluable.  smile.gif

i search for reality news daily (those not reported or probably won't be reported in the mainstream media), advises from prudent ppl, n try to figure out where we're headed. i don't search for positive news cos i get massive doses when turn on the tv n read the newspaper everyday. does "green shoots" ring any bell...? while they do have some gloomy news its usually more dominated by positive news.

i remind myself the law of physics... if we jump from a 10-storey building, its going to hurt or kill us no matter what others may speculate. cos the state of denial can be overwhelming when a lot is at stake. by the time its reported in the media its usually just a confirmation that what we feared has ALREADY come to past

i sound very bearish but i'm actually absolutely optimistic about the future. if there is a time n place where "once in a lifetime opportunity" could be used... this is the time n malaysia is one of the places - without a shadow of a doubt cool.gif
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'if there is a time n place where "once in a lifetime opportunity" could be used... this is the time n malaysia is one of the places - without a shadow of a doubt'

Absolutely right - couldn't agree more. nod.gif
David_Brent
post Jun 23 2009, 01:19 AM

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QUOTE(omores @ Jun 23 2009, 01:00 AM)
Wow now everyone suddenly bearish, even more bearish than me? Time to buy by end this week/next week then. smile.gif  I love reading all your prophecies of doom. smile.gif The earlier you guys act on it and dump the shares, I would reach my target buy price in no time.
*
I have total confidence in the counters in my portfolio; total confidence in my own judgement; total confidence in Malaysia as a home for my money. rclxm9.gif

And what is more - I also have the time (and lots of spare cash) to prove me right and guarantee me handsome long-term returns in the equities I have selected. icon_idea.gif


Added on June 23, 2009, 1:21 am
QUOTE(omores @ Jun 23 2009, 01:16 AM)
You prophet of doom too? smile.gif
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New nick for our friend and co-poster: "Doomcake" brows.gif


Added on June 23, 2009, 1:23 am
QUOTE(goognio @ Jun 22 2009, 09:20 PM)
I already warned you guys the trend will take weeks  rclxm9.gif. My target reduce from 950 to 900  thumbup.gif
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Wish I had listened to your warning. You must be so smart. hmm.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jun 23 2009, 01:23 AM
David_Brent
post Jun 23 2009, 01:38 AM

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QUOTE(omores @ Jun 23 2009, 01:28 AM)
Yep me too. smile.gif And yep about us looking like peanut bearish-ers. lol.

Anyhow DOW looks like gonna hit the -200 mark soon. Tomorrow all of us might have stocks that open 2% cheaper.


Added on June 23, 2009, 1:30 am

I had a drink earlier on. Too many guinness pints now - carbo and stimulants. I can't sleep yet. Gonna watch movie soon. But since you guys are awake, its always fun to have midnight chats. Havent done so in a while.
*

Anyhow DOW looks like gonna hit the -200 mark soon. Tomorrow all of us might have stocks that open 2% cheaper.


No problem rclxms.gif

Unless you believe in TEOTWAWKI - where's the problem??
David_Brent
post Jun 23 2009, 01:42 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 23 2009, 01:37 AM)
For those who are still awake tonight - what do you guys think of the H1N1 scare so far??
Any counters that will benefit your pocket during this time?
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Piggy Sneeze will benefit the gloves only - IMHO. nod.gif
The stocks you want to buy are GSK (Tamiflu) Roche or Merck.
Problem in Malaysia is no drug companies (well - not legal, investible ones brows.gif ) and drugs distribution is controlled by the 'conglomerates'.


Added on June 23, 2009, 1:43 am
QUOTE(omores @ Jun 23 2009, 01:39 AM)
Hehheehe I'm just adding my own lil prophecy of doom. smile.gif
*
"Misery LOVES company"
QED tongue.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jun 23 2009, 01:43 AM
David_Brent
post Jun 23 2009, 01:45 AM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Jun 23 2009, 01:43 AM)
Nah, Dow will close at 8400 , minus about 140-150 points, around there.
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rclxms.gif
At last - a voice of sanity....
Adam is back to save us!
With his crystal ball(s) notworthy.gif


Added on June 23, 2009, 1:47 am
QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Jun 23 2009, 01:43 AM)
gonna add this before i go.
aiya H1N1, TOPGLOV loh. HOVID loh.
these stocks are solid as a rock. only sideways.

i think the reason's nothing to do with h1n1 anyway. u also said it's a scare, scare also scare ppl only mah. rational investors won't be fooled.

k goodnight everybody.
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Piggy Sneeze is a total diversionary tactic dreamed up by the G20 to divert idiots from the real issues.
Completely agree with this co-poster.
Well said.

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jun 23 2009, 01:47 AM
David_Brent
post Jun 23 2009, 03:11 AM

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QUOTE(mememe12 @ Jun 23 2009, 02:51 AM)
i think it is hard for tmr..  bye.gif  bye.gif MK Land.. Lioncor.. n etc..
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Doomed.......we're all doomed - I tell ye...............DOOMED.................... wink.gif
David_Brent
post Jun 24 2009, 01:12 AM

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QUOTE(omores @ Jun 24 2009, 12:50 AM)
Ya... problem is sentiments are changing slightly against current policies by fed and government. Ppl as usual expect fast recovery. How to get fast recovery when this is supposed to be the big recession?

I guess can't blame the people too if they are being fired from jobs....
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Why don't the World Bank just keep their opinions to themselves instead of rocking the boat. blink.gif
It's their bloody interference caused all the red the last few days, IMHO.

Anyway: Now for the good news.
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch Sdn Bhd has raised its fair value for the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) to 1,190 points from 1,050 points by rolling over the valuation base into 2010 on a price-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times, saying that the next leg up would be accompanied by a rebound in earnings, set against a healthy liquidity backdrop.

At a rebound of 17% in 2010, the KLCI's earnings were expected to expand by more than two times its trend-average earnings growth rate of 7% post 1998-Asian crisis, it said.

The key risk was renewed concern over inflation with an associated upturn in interest rate cycle, putting an end to net liquidity creation.

"This risk, however, is not expected to be material in the next six to nine months," it added.

AmResearch noted that the two themes for 2010 would be infrastructure spending and reflation.

"Recession should end by 4Q09 but cyclical transition towards recovery may be a fragile progression as exports are still contracting — though at a slower pace.

"Faster return to growth must be anchored by domestic demand via a resurgence of public spending. To ensure continuity, we expect the administration under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak to accelerate infrastructure spending as cornerstone for growth in 2010," it said.

Recent liberalisation of steel manufacturing licences and reduction in import duties hinted of an imminent roll-out of large infrastructure projects, it said.

AmResearch said after rebounding 26% off the lows in March 2009, the KLCI was now negotiating a mid-cycle correction.

"We continue to like reflation trades — oil and gas (O&G), plantation, property and steel — given demand kicker from improved prospects of an economic recovery, a weak US dollar and ample liquidity," it said.

AmResearch said its top 10 buys were IJM Corporation Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, Ann Joo Resources Bhd, IJM Land Bhd, SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd, Kencana Petroleum Bhd, IOI Corporation Bhd, Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Bhd and Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd.

Sectorally, AmResearch said construction would deliver the strongest earnings growth of 75% in 2010, anchored by the earnings growth at Gamuda and WCT.

The research house expects earnings turnaround for the automotive sector in 2010.

"After a steep contraction of 56% in 2009, we are forecasting earnings for the auto sector to rebound strongly by 62% in 2010. We forecast a 43% earnings growth for UMW Holdings and expect Proton to return to the black at a forecast RM83 million net profit for FY11 (YE March) versus net loss of RM69 million in FY10F," it said.

On the banking sector, AmResearch expects earnings to rebound by 15% in 2010 after a 7% fall in 2009.

It retained its overweight call on commodities, particularly plantation and O&G, as it was positive on plantations given that demand from China would improve, underpinned by the festive period in 3Q09.

It said rising crude oil prices had resulted in biodiesel being attractive again, adding that this, coupled with government mandates for green fuel, would help absorb any rise in soybean or corn inventory in the US.

On the property sector, AmResearch said residential demand was returning with buying interest boosted by the low upfront entry costs embedded in the various deferred downpayment and interest-free programmes on offer from developers.


Added on June 24, 2009, 1:17 am
QUOTE(naz_b_85 @ Jun 24 2009, 12:31 AM)
I like construction and services related to infrastructure. smile.gif
*
Like O & G brows.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jun 24 2009, 01:17 AM
David_Brent
post Jun 24 2009, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Jun 24 2009, 03:22 PM)
lol, TOPGLOV looks like testing waters. 6.45 buy 400 lots 6.50 buy 2 lots, 6.45 buy 100 lots 6.50 buy 3 lots.. come on!! 6.60 TP please tongue.gif
*
TP should be around 7.80 on their expected earnings drool.gif
David_Brent
post Jun 24 2009, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Jun 24 2009, 04:23 PM)
huh, this question is a little embarassing but how would you calculate TP based on expected earnings? Use expected earnings divide by current EPS?
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Read Mark Learn and Inwardly Digest:

OSK Research Sdn Bhd has maintained its buy call on Top Glove Corporation Bhd at RM6.50 with higher target price of RM7.40 (previously RM5.55) and said the company's 3Q09 results were above its expectation, mainly attributed to the additional buying by its customers who had kept minimal inventory, plus cost efficiency and forex gains.

"We are upgrading our FY09-10 earnings by 14%-23% in view of the improving economic outlook, which will spur demand for non-medical gloves," it said.

The research house said the 3QFY09 annualised results were within consensus but above its expectations, making up 80% and 82% of the FY09 forecasts respectively.

It said Top Glove and its peers had not lowered the selling prices on all glove ranges despite lower natural gas prices (down from RM22.06 per mmBTU to RM15 per mmBTU), as natural gas makes up about 7% of Top Glove's total cost.

"With the better revenue combined with cost efficiency and forex gain, its 3QFY09 net profit of RM42.2 million jumped 17.1% quarter-on-quarter while EBITDA margin rose by 1.2 percentage points to 18.9%, mainly contributed by the sales of a higher margin product mix," it said.

"Finally, both the 9MFY09 revenue and net profit improved by 9% and 35% respectively, thanks to higher utilisation rates and a better sales mix. Top Glove has 19 factories (13 in Malaysia, four in Thailand and two in China) with 355 production lines that produce 31.5 billion pieces of gloves per annum. We understand that its utilisation rate averages 70%-80%."

David_Brent
post Jun 24 2009, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 24 2009, 04:27 PM)
ci still in uptrend track....
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My beautiful MKLand rising from the dead and clawing it's way back up the cliff.... rclxms.gif
David_Brent
post Jun 24 2009, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(omores @ Jun 24 2009, 04:21 PM)
Hahaha, I did say yesterday and today good day for selling right? Jeez just didnt know today would be such a darn good day. smile.gif
Beware all watch out for tonights Fed Res meeting. They might want to annouce ways to strengthen the dollar, thus soothing inflation worries. Then oil will jatuh. Followed by all recent gains.
*
I think that wanting to strengthen the dollar is the least of their worries..... laugh.gif
David_Brent
post Jun 24 2009, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Jun 24 2009, 04:31 PM)
Actually, partially joking. Short term is something that I'm not good at... Anyway, put some money in Fajar-wa. I was aiming it when the price was higher than current. So, mid term wise, I think I got it cheaper than if I bought it earlier this month...
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I bought Fajar - but at the wrong price doh.gif
Anyone else on this train?
David_Brent
post Jun 24 2009, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Jun 24 2009, 04:46 PM)
whoever's trying to prop up the TOPGLOV shares. GOOD! KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK! biggrin.gif
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Very low volume isn't it.
Wish Tan Sri Lim was a bit more generous with the divvy - tight-fisted old ********** hmm.gif
David_Brent
post Jun 24 2009, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Jun 24 2009, 04:55 PM)
still monitoring TOPGLOV.

very smart.. very very smart.
4:59:++ pm, 500 lots done for 6.50, counter end up unchanged. (BQ dried up)

looks like GREEN for this stock. wooooh biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
*
What do you supect is going on?
Any conspiracy theory? brows.gif

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