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 Stock Market V30, Welcome to mini-BULL of Bolehland

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cherroy
post Jun 15 2009, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 14 2009, 11:19 PM)
Wait a minute, if you're EPF fund manager, if you are fully believe MAS has rock solid fundamentals and it will come back, why would you want to support MAS from dropping further? 

You would definitely want MAS to tank badly tomorrow so that you can buy more at cheaper price.
EPF can dump all its shares of MAS immediately, which cause more panic selling, and then buy back at cheaper price.

So, why not let it burn, weed out the ikan bilis, then go out collect its ash and resurrect it like a phoenix, right?  biggrin.gif
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Market doesn't work in this way, when you have significant interest in it, while if you see rock solid fundamental, you won't throw your stocks, instead you are supporting and keep on buying.

Because if you throw your stocks, other also see good solid fundamental as said, then others will 'sapu' your stocks.
In the end you are trying to help other make money only.

It is plain no wise to throw your own good future stocks (if one views on it) in order to make the share price plunge so that you can accumulate at lower price.
This strategy most of the time cannot work, but probably work on goreng stocks which genuine long term fund managers won't be interested in it, no matter what price is the stock.

No people want to see their stock plummeting if they are holding significant stake, as it just like throwing the stone on your own leg.

Remember market is not you and me or several parties alone.

When something is cheap, market will come in with lot of buyers. Just like what happened on recent market bounced up from the low point of March.
cherroy
post Jun 15 2009, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(virtualgay @ Jun 15 2009, 01:30 PM)
once hit 14.00 i gonna let go!!!
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I will sell if they reporting dismay Q result which make them unable to payout generous dividend as usual or based on current result, 16-17 should be my long term target.


cherroy
post Jun 15 2009, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Jun 15 2009, 02:22 PM)
nope the brokerage is different.

normally futures brokerage is at around RM 40+/- per side. (this one kena chin chang already)

if you know somebody RM 25+/- per side.
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Since I first started trade, it was already Rm25 per contract. I taught it is the standard, can vary one meh?
cherroy
post Jun 15 2009, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ Jun 15 2009, 02:03 PM)
cherroy, how would you gauge a dismal Q results? Loss, or less profit? And what would be a generous dividend? More than 15sen? As i know, every quarter also declare dividend last year. Not sure this year got or not. Keep fingers cross for the next week announcment....  unsure.gif
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Expected dividend is in the range of 70-90 cents pa.

Look at their operation earning.
If there are sign of dropping in significant way, generally it sends a warning signal dividend is not sustainable (like Carlsberg case) which I don't think so, as its 2 main core business which contributed most (>90-95%) of its earning come from IPP and 4D gaming shouldn't be affected too much.
cherroy
post Jun 15 2009, 02:46 PM

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Please don't OT too much, occassionally ok, just don't want to see the like issue happened on KNM thread.

Cheers.
cherroy
post Jun 15 2009, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Jun 15 2009, 02:48 PM)
what happened in KNM thread?

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QUOTE(R2R @ Jun 15 2009, 02:53 PM)

what happened to KNM thread
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It was being spammed severely until need to close the thread.
cherroy
post Jun 15 2009, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jun 15 2009, 03:12 PM)
1st time come across this share.  sweat.gif

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I only know this company make trophy one.
cherroy
post Jun 15 2009, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(sharesa @ Jun 15 2009, 03:31 PM)
List of Tanjong owners:-
Cherroy, Ninjitsu, Virtual Gay ,Vyverns & me.
Anybody else just jumped in?
Target Price for me: $16
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Neo should have as well, just not enough. tongue.gif


cherroy
post Jun 16 2009, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ Jun 16 2009, 04:21 PM)
Two weeks ago, Tanjong was on the way down down.....
Today, up 0.20 in a red market. Fuyohhhh!!!
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I taught can buy more at 12.xx, now just can sit waiting for the 20 cents dividend liao. sad.gif
cherroy
post Jun 16 2009, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jun 16 2009, 04:37 PM)
sometimes, daily trading is safer than long term investment, it may lead you to earn more,too.
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Not necessary, I previously planned (in my mind) to hold/long FKLI for long term at 900 (same as holding stock) but never do it (sometimes you need to work your plan, if not, zero is the result).
As I view if hold for long term, as long as future the KLCI is above 900 in any day in the future be it 1 year 2 years or even more, I am sure I will make money.
Also at 900, it seems not too high although I never taught it could be bottom or not. As there is lot of chance KLCI more than 900 at 2-3 or 5 years time, although not a must.

If I do, I will earn 200 points (10K) with just one contract with one decision and more importantly with peace of mind.

Instead daily trading, in and out 10x, also can't achieve the 200 points gain as in between one might make wrong decision and suffer loss which breakeven back, not to mention you lose 20 points with 10 contracts due to commission. In the meantime, one has to think and predict until "head burst" what trend will the market tomorrow or next week.

Just my view.
cherroy
post Jun 16 2009, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(omores @ Jun 16 2009, 06:10 PM)
Hard to hold as contracts expire in one months, unless u choose to buy contract from 4 months ahead. Thats why better long term your stocks.
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You can rollover on each month at near month end, which a lot of time, you gain extra a few point by rollover, as next month price sometimes can be in some discount compared to spot month.
cherroy
post Jun 17 2009, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(moorish @ Jun 17 2009, 01:08 PM)
just wondering if we can do this, mark all the counter about to give dividend next month, buy, collect divident sell then buy the next counter about to give dividend rclxms.gif

wah like this sure can achieve warrant buffet 20% profit easily
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Tak boleh pakai.

You probably earn some peanut using this strategy, but lose out big banana.

Also after the ex-date, price may drop below your cost which you need to wait next cycle of dividend annoucenment which could be 6 month away to breakeven the origin share price you bought.

There is no easy food in the market.
cherroy
post Jun 17 2009, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(jgchoo @ Jun 17 2009, 01:57 PM)
tried that, earn so so slow... except u have huge captital...
and take times, u have to buy around announcement + good stock...
so u have to hold on to many stock @ 1 time... = huge capital
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It is not about the capital big or small, as whatever you earn or try to achieve to earn is in % wise to beat FD which is the ultimate goal of every investment.

You have 2 scenario under this strategy.

As stock after ex-div

1. You earn little or some peanut as you sell off after that it rose, and the stock might go all the way to the upside, neve come back which you missed lot of opportunity afterwards. Instead gain a few RM from the stock you earn a few cent or ten cents.

2. After ex-div, stock hardly move much and you can't even get breakeven by selling off after the ex-div.

So you only earn peanut but stand a chance to lose more than the peanut.
cherroy
post Jun 17 2009, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ Jun 17 2009, 02:35 PM)
Am i seeing right ah? -0.74 I thought we close -5.54?

HSI now less than 100 down...This morning near 300....What NKorea missile fell off railway track?
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N. Korea issue won't be affecting much on the market, may be except Korea and Japan only, unless they are really starting a war, which is 98% unlikely <-- market and global don't believe they are really intend for war, just political game in showing off.
cherroy
post Jun 18 2009, 02:54 PM

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The warning of manipulation scare off those goreng shark and ikan bilis? hmm.gif

QUOTE
SC and Bursa to act against market manipulators


http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...77&sec=business?

Market tone changed dramatically this week.
cherroy
post Jun 18 2009, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ Jun 18 2009, 02:58 PM)
Wrong time to make this announcement ? Or is it better for the market ?
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For traders, it is wrong time as it will cool off the market goreng and activities, but think deeper, it actually a good move as some counters are being traded at ridiculous high volume which daily volume exceeded the free float of the company share which is totally abnormal. Somemore some counters being traded at tremendous high volume, but price wise never move.

Over speculation in the market is not healthy as soon or later some late comers surely will be burned kau kau.
No speculation in the market is also no good, as it just means a dead market.

They need to find a balance so that market can grow in a healthy way.

They can't make the move (warning) too early, as it is a free market, they wish to see some goreng activities as well. More volume more income for them as well. brows.gif

But there is a concern of over speculation currently, so they need to make query and warning of excessive goreng.

Goreng is ok, but manipulation is a worry and harmful to all retail investors as well as reputation of the bourses is in stake.
cherroy
post Jun 18 2009, 11:20 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jun 18 2009, 11:08 PM)
Tanjong go against the odds, CI down, Tanjong says, who cares, and taking its own sweet time inching up, bits by bits laugh.gif
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Most dividend stocks are moving on their own based on their own individual issue. Just like when KLCI near 1100, Tanjong keep on sliding.

While for Axreit, it hit low at 1.00 way before the low point of March.

A lot of time, it has to do with fund managers liquidating their position in those stocks based on the fund managers strategy and needs or individual stock fundamental issue.
The former reason is actually favourable because when fund managers liquidating while if fundamental intact, it just means they let you have the chance to own the stock at cheaper price. As once fund managers sell, they normally send the stock down trend for awhile, because they come in big and eager to sell most of the time, as a lot of time you see those stocks falling near market close (to clear stock and their target).

This had happened on Axreit, Tanjong, IOI as well. (Others I don't monitor much, so don't know the rest)

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