tee... back spamming liao??? ha

Wow, you guys do not have to work. I work like a dog here. What to do-until and unless I can live on passive income?

KNM bus has plunged headlong last year to be 2nd worst performer in 2008 but recovered some ground and registered a healthy rise, mainly on the back of stronger oil price and good results. I wrote before that at the oil price of USD70, people will be more comfortable holding KNM at RM1. This really is what is happening now.

No news so far of securing of big projects, so any rise to RM1.30-RM1.50 may not be sustainable. The sharks hold the price therefore at the current 1.04. The prospect of moving up out of current range is dented somewhat by driver Lee's selling its stake. Looked at objectively, there may indeed be a quarter in which sales may drop rather significantly due to lack of contract work. That quarter is likely to be Q1 2010.

To fall to 90sen is possible but as oil price is helping and valuation based on profit not demanding and we are talking about sharks with very deep pockets, supporting the price at 1.04 is not difficult.

For those with 44sen cost like Teewan, I still use the word admirable. The truce has been going on for 1 week by now as neither buyer nor sellers want to attack. Those 3m shares on either side of the queue should largely be the same group of sharks.

I think KNM will move to 1.20 in 2 months time provided the Mr Rocket in North Korea does not cause a war to break out. If the driver Lee sells further the shares, the price of KNM has 50% likelihood of dropping below RM1 depending on how much he sells.

CK still working??

Well, we are no day no night. On YLI, Teewan, the upside is not compelling. I do not like its balance sheets vis-a-vis the current market price of 1.2RM

looks like KNM is steadying its ship around 1-1.10 now....hopefully a big up after this!!yeah!!

if can break 1.1 should good gua...

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Added on June 13, 2009, 10:28 pmThx CKC for spending time on this.
I am buying it since it is more or less chinaman business, shouldn't go bankrupt.
Also, I think their demand outlook is stable, if not promising.

Holding term is a year or two for me.
Somehow chinaman business, if priced low enough, could bring good profits, but need time.

I've bought Ye Chiu before, also good gains from it in long run, but not as good as KNM lah
but YeChiu was TaiwanMan business more or less the same...
Bought YeChiu below RM1.50, probably avg RM1.35, and sold it at RM2 (voluntary withdrawal offer) after about 1 or 2 yrs.

More importantly, the offer came during recessionary times, sometime around November 2008,
and I had claimed back substantial bullets for me to dump more into KNM!

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Added on June 13, 2009, 10:40 pmMy second round of bullets for KNM, Kinstel/Perwaja/MAA came after getting some advice from CKC, on the decision of whether to hold on to bluechips such as Amway, Panamy and F&N.

I agreed with his views on switching to cyclical shares, and it did pay off.
Even though Amway, Panamy and F&N price has somewhat rose too (especially Panamy ), however, my reinvestment has gone up more.

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Added on June 13, 2009, 10:43 pmNow I'm seriously thinking of letting go my remaining shares in F&N

This post has been edited by teewan: Jun 13 2009, 10:43 PM

Remember when I first wrote, you would win a Vios. So it proved. Currently commodity may take a breather for a while as prices have somewhat run ahead of fundamentals.

Currently, bullets go to the quietest of counters. That may signal the rally is finding it hard to get good value. Any retreat however should not be major as recovery is already underway.

Share market has been up for 3 months but considering the bloodbath in the 14 months prior to that and US is still at 8,700 plus, I believe selective counters will continue to rise to fair value level.

I am happy for you Tee and the rest as trading back then could not make too much loss and upside was tremendous. Now that things have moved up, it may be good to exercise some caution. Not that I want to be contrarian but the approach of hit and run like what you are doing is becoming more relevant when valuation has gone up.

Back then when valuation was low, I did not sell anything as the trajectory was up. The only issue is whether you had the money to buy more. Everyone was screaming back then that the sky was falling.

Be assured that if recovery is not derailed, the current valuation is still attractive for selective counters.

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Added on June 13, 2009, 10:57 pmFor big transactions, how far can you drive down the brokerage fee from remisier from 6%? Tee, what say you? I have done some transactions yesterday and i think i should get some discount.

This post has been edited by CKC (Sense-Maker): Jun 13 2009, 10:57 PM

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:00 pm6%??
Issit 0.6%?

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:01 pmMaybank is 0.42, and much lower if bought on Cash Account.

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:04 pmMy conventional RHB is charging 0.7% for below RM100K per day
If above RM100K, is 0.49%, bloodsuckers!

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:06 pmI think Maybank Cash Account transactions are 0.1%!
http://www.maybank2u.com.my/mbb_info/m2u/p.../PRO-Promotions

This post has been edited by teewan: Jun 13 2009, 11:06 PM

hehe ....

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:20 pmwah teewan today really spamming wo ...

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:20 pmKNM

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:23 pm hiak hiak ..

This post has been edited by v-honda: Jun 13 2009, 11:33 PM

You bought only KNM, and no other counters, v-honda?

yes .... sifu CKC, i dunno ler .... may be at this time i shud sell of a little bit to play on some short term ... mini stock ..... what should i do ha ... my planning is tunggu sebentar lagi ..... dunno leh ... i think sell off a little bit is ok gua ... i am think of finding a faster boat .. getting up 1st then sell , come back KNM ... but cannot catch timing ....


This post has been edited by v-honda: Jun 13 2009, 11:43 PM

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:45 pmV-Honda really creative lah... CEO should be creative

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Added on June 13, 2009, 11:46 pmI've been going places these few months, and asking around how is business, at the local shop / outlets.

Somehow, the local sentiment is REALLY bad...
This is truly worrying, as I thought by now, the market recovery should have at least allowed businesses to stabilize.
Seems like the market recovery does not do the real economy much, if any good.

Of course, definitely my sampling test is not big enough, but I've asked about 6 or 8 differring businesses, and all are quite bad.

The New Balance store in One Utama up to around 8PM has only about RM700 of total sales. And it's a weekend for christ sakes.
Plus, he says he expects big sales drop in August.

A car parts dealer says he is expecting market to remain quiet at least for the next few months.

A car accessories shop has just had a quiet week.

There are rumors in US, of this buy in April sell in July, though I do not know on what basis.

This post has been edited by teewan: Jun 13 2009, 11:46 PM

In shares, one must exercise his own judgment. Decision is always based on relative higher chance, never absolute. What is in your mind is very logical; sell first then come back to KNM.

As it is your money, I shall not give any recommendation. Nobody knows what tomorrow holds. But I believe if you read between the lines of what I wrote, you may (just may) be able to learn sth.

I saw a whole row (probably 3 or 4 shops) vacant in the once booming 1-Utama.
Location is maybe 2nd or 3rd floor, i think the old wing, next to Aussino.

I can see a sign there for rent / lease (forgot exactly what it says).

Teewan, I saw that too. I went for Dragon I in One Utama. It quite sucks, unlike the one in Curve. The best food i tried was actually that in Overseas Restaurant near/ at Armada Hotel.

yea ..... mostly are the place that ppl depend on factory or export ...... because many ppl lost thier job or cut salary ... less spending .... too much ppl depend on that ... so the affect is big , they used to get high salary , spend high volume ...... in Sarawak is not that worst ... ppl here used to have low salary , spending not so high ... so the market affect not big , of cors more or less got some affect .... ppl who go Singapore working ... lost thier job ... or some factory here goreng sotong ...

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Added on June 14, 2009, 12:04 amthanks sifu CKC ...

This post has been edited by v-honda: Jun 14 2009, 12:04 AM

The only Dragon I i've been to is Mid Valley.
I quite like it there...

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Added on June 14, 2009, 12:12 amV-honda has to tuck his babies to sleep

This post has been edited by teewan: Jun 14 2009, 12:12 AM

Have the Papa John's pizza.. it's LOVELY

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Added on June 14, 2009, 3:22 amTry Noble House@Jalan Raja Chulan or near there

This post has been edited by taikin: Jun 14 2009, 03:22 AM

Congratulations spammers. U guys have just earned tickets to ban island. Thread is now closed for incessant spamming. Feel free to open another to start over.