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 Stock Market VERSION 26, Baby bull @ Baby bear ?

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cherroy
post May 15 2009, 11:29 AM

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QUOTE(kinwawa @ May 15 2009, 11:24 AM)
cherroy.....how do u think panamy's result will fare?? i'm planning to grab but nt sure if their sales are ok....worried div will be less....
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35 cents final dividend 90% won't be changed. It is the special dividend part could be reduced.

But still company having hefty cash level. My guess on their result would be flat or slight down compared to previous.
cherroy
post May 15 2009, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ May 15 2009, 12:19 PM)
I agree.....Sometimes it is better to sit back and do nothing....Watch the market and observe the movement.....
Not all the time need to buy/sell.....Up/down/sideways....Just be patient
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Yup, sometimes need also stay sideline, not everyday or every week must got 'action' one.
Must also know how to protect your gain.

One has clear mind/head by seeing at the sideline eventually lead to more correct decision being made.


cherroy
post May 15 2009, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(omores @ May 15 2009, 02:37 PM)
I better go take flu pills now. Straight away switched off aircon. Hahaha.
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No use one lar, just take good care on your health, sleep early, eat well, rest well.

It is highly contagious like normal flu but it is not high fatality like Sars. Sars is more dangerous. That's why worldwide market don't react much recently to this H1N1 issue, unless it mutated into deadly virus in the future.

Only vaccine can prevent the flu, other none, only through individual immune system.

So don't worry much.
cherroy
post May 15 2009, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(ABC2020 @ May 15 2009, 02:44 PM)
H1N1 cause the sell off?
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Market is built on fragile goreng sentiment without fundamental backing, any bad news even non-related can spark this kind of panic sell off as contra and intra-day players are desperate to get out.

Just like you see a bunch of flies (punters) surrounding on junk food (goreng stock), anything step over it (any bad news), then all flies fly away like mad. Just like poking a balloon. biggrin.gif

No offence.
cherroy
post May 15 2009, 04:04 PM

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Next market headwind could be GM potential filing bankruptcy protection.
GM is huge compared to Chrysler, lot of jobs are in stake.
cherroy
post May 16 2009, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ May 16 2009, 01:58 PM)
Can someone explain what is HSI C6 and HSI C7?
I researched a little and found that these are warrants. But why these warrants don't have a "exercise price". How do we know if these are trading at premiums or discounts?
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Exercise price is HSI undelying

HSI-C6 22,000
HSI-C7 13,500

Basically you bet on the index of HSI.
cherroy
post May 16 2009, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ May 16 2009, 02:23 PM)
Where did you get the 22,000? I cannot find this in my trading console "General Info" See screenshot.
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Every warrant information can be obtained through KLSE website.


cherroy
post May 16 2009, 03:08 PM

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IOI earning drop 93.8% compared to previous year Q due to forex loss and customer defaulting.
From thestar,
QUOTE
IOI Corp Bhd posted a 93.8% drop in net profit to RM37.36mil in the third quarter of its financial year ending June 30, compared with RM601.64mil in the corresponding period last year.

The lower profit is attributable mainly to realised foreign exchange losses and customer defaults on high priced contracts incurred during the first half of the financial year and lower sales volume due to the unfavourable global economic conditions,” the company said.
IOI financial result has been troubled by forex exchange related issue lately, hedge wrongly, no hedge?
Company didn't provide any details on this issue. Just last time company CFO part the company when the forex issue reported.

Might be a drag on KLCI movement on Monday.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 16 2009, 03:09 PM
cherroy
post May 16 2009, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ May 16 2009, 04:12 PM)
Looking to buy this counter....but the way it can get goreng...one day 4.40 next day can 4.08, den up again 4.30.
Is this counter being goreng? I remember last year it drop until 2.xx.....but its suppose to be a KLCI index co., so how come it can up down so teruk?
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IOI has lot of foreign interest inside while EPF and PNB also hold large chunck of stake, so it is always tug of war when both party are in the market.
Foreign funds generally move in big wave so you see drastic price movement when they move in/out.
cherroy
post May 17 2009, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(moorish @ May 17 2009, 10:15 AM)
Do you think Lionind is a good counter to keep? The price is easing down, wanted to buy last 2 days edi but everytime i notice the price drop slightly further down.
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I don't know much about the Lion group company, but I don't like its enormous debt it has.

QUOTE(Ruionkoh @ May 17 2009, 10:21 AM)
dai lou den ramunia i bought at 0.64, worth keeping too?gorreng counter too?
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Company agreed to sell its asset and core busines at 41 cents, ended with 46 millions cash + 20% SDE shares (non-listed) ended with no core business which potential under GN3 company.

So basically company management itself see their company valued at 41 cents.

The rest I don't like to comment anymore again.


cherroy
post May 17 2009, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(Ruionkoh @ May 17 2009, 10:43 AM)
wah 3rd person to suggest me to cut loss. T.T my $$ sad lor..
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I am not suggesting anything, as short term goreng wise, any stock can go to any price.

But long term wise, you need basic fundamental to back your share price worth.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 17 2009, 11:08 AM
cherroy
post May 17 2009, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(alanaw @ May 17 2009, 11:29 AM)
Coz i forsee that holding more counter will reward me the best in future. Who knows which of this counter that i will hold might surge to RM 3 .50more later on. By average down, i might miss this chance if my "average down" counter cant fly like rocket nex few years to come. Then ma jiak lat.. Hmph..

ADVISE PLZ? smile.gif
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Holding more counters has nothing to do with more rewarding. It is just like buying 4D, instead of buying a number you buy 100 hundred number, surely the chance of winning become bigger with hundred number, but the rest could be bleeding more than you gain.

Share price is not something blink blink just like on your computer screen, then suddenly a counter 0.30 can blink blink become 3.50.

Share price is a valuation and people willing to pay for it. Why people willing to pay for that price? Because the company business can generate profit and return to the shareholders.
Why you see some stocks over/after 10-20 years, share price is always up one?
Why you see some stocks after 20 years, still the same or even lower?

Yes, once awhile you see some junk stocks or worthless stock price sky-rcoketing as you said suddenly shoot up. But those who bought or willing to pay the price one is not looking for company profit generated, but they forsee late comers willingness to buy higher than them with no fundamental reason. Harsh word is they see more fool will pay higher price, so they can capitilise on. No offence.

Short term speculation anything can happen.
But long term wise, better study about company history, profitability etc before committing. Some company stocks even hold 20 years also no rewarding one, average on those kind of stocks will only bleed you more.

Cheers. smile.gif
cherroy
post May 18 2009, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(MoonRider @ May 18 2009, 12:47 PM)
Reason why TA-WB is strong, you can buy TA Global share when the wb expired in june 24 ..

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...68&sec=business
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Another reason, they need people to convert the WB so that the company can raise money through warrant holder exercise their WB at 1.00.
TA can simply take in 470 million of cash through the exercise.

But I don't think new share will have good performance as IPO generally open below indicated price since after last year financial crisis first exploded. My opinion only.
cherroy
post May 18 2009, 03:08 PM

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Morning, people talk about 950 or break below 1000, now afternoon people become confidence want to goreng goreng again?

Mood so fast change liao. rolleyes.gif
cherroy
post May 18 2009, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(abin28 @ May 18 2009, 03:13 PM)
cool make sure u install 2 engines on your speed boat so that one enjoy breakdown got another engine to support! LION LION bring some meat for lion to eat ok?
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You mean yourself as the meat for the lion? laugh.gif

Still FKLI is trading at discount, so still need to be wary a bit.
cherroy
post May 18 2009, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(edwin32us @ May 18 2009, 03:13 PM)
2) Singapore's Electronic Export went up ?
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Singapore export (non-oil) for April down 19% compared to previous year of month figure.
In March export was down 17% compared to previous corresponding period.

Indian market limit up until need to close.
cherroy
post May 18 2009, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(thken @ May 18 2009, 04:03 PM)
hmm.gif dividend quite high
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Capital repayment is not dividend, bare in mind.

It is just like you give me 3.80, I give you back 0.98.
cherroy
post May 18 2009, 09:36 PM

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That's why knowing the risk before going in is the most important part.

Do not play/goreng/speculate if you cannot afford to lose those money.


cherroy
post May 18 2009, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ May 18 2009, 10:09 PM)
Those counters should rise then - especially KINSTEL. The market has already costed Q1 losses in.  smile.gif
Seems like in the current market P/L is not important. Hartalega posted 250% increase in profits and dropped like a stone today....
hmm.gif  AMMB dropped also despite creditable results...

There's an unseen hand behind a lot of these stocks IMHO.


Added on May 18, 2009, 10:11 pm

yes. well said. the market is looking forward 6 months.... rclxms.gif
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Not actually, when seeing profit or loss, you need to see where the profit and loss come from. If losses by steel company largely due to inventory writedown in value, it is still an ok result, as it doesn't affect the cashflow, but if it is operational losses then need to worry.

Among the banking sector, AMMB is the most vulnerable to NPL as everyone knows its loan quality is not that good. At current economy situation, NPL will only have one way to go, ie. up.

P/L result cannot be seen from its surface, you need to dig more into it to see the clearer picture, while market is forwards looking as always.

Having said that, short term wise market has been blind by bullishness and goreng, it can go anywhere.
But over the long term it is the financial result of individual company dictate the footing of their share price.

QUOTE(naz_b_85 @ May 18 2009, 10:37 PM)
careful not to entice the newbies too much. Some of them maybe so excited that they think another similar rally is in the cards. I'm not saying there is no possibility but I am concern on the ability of follow through. Dow can be fickle, 100+ points up today and 100+ points down tomorrow. It would be catastrophic for newbies to trade in this type of market. Be careful newbies, this may not be the beginning on another such rally as the recent one so for the ones eager to jump in quick tomorrow and chase, Dow can be fickle!
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Market is clueless and directionless as if we said economy is recovering and booming, the answer is no, we have not yet reached that stage, we are in less bad situation, whatever data still show less bad and stabilise, it has not (or yet) turn into positive territory.
If we said economy is deteoriating, the answer is still no, worst situation is passed (seem like).

So market is waiting.


QUOTE(panasonic88 @ May 18 2009, 10:48 PM)
did klci experience limit up before, lol?

yup, there was once, a limit down during march 2008, composite dropped more than 100 pts on that morning!! sweat.gif
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Last time KLSE didn't impose limit down or up on KLCI like current 10%, only individual stock 30%. If there was, then we will had once of limit up tongue.gif, KLCI surged more than 10% once before, during 1998, when KLCI plunged severely time and rebound, I can remember it was during CNY (if not mistaken), saw so many counters limit up across the board especially blue chips somemore.
But there was not something to be happy of because market has loss 70% before having this kind of rebounding or limit up.
cherroy
post May 19 2009, 11:00 AM

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Yup, several online site laggy, sometimes can't log in, lot of lag.


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