Nobody knows the optimum TP for LCL as we all know TP is notoriously inaccurate.
However, I am a long-term investor
of LCL and I have been following it's share price since Nov 2008. Here's what happen if I remember it correctly:
Stock price hovering around 70-75 cents, was stable for some time. That was in Q4 2008
News of economic downturn in middle-east, which would be bad new for those companies that have contracts there. LCL has big contracts there.
WCT, a construction company, had one of it's contract cancelled in the middle-east, share price dropped from around 1.70 to 1.00.
Other middle-east exposed companies, including LCL, started to fall. LCL fell to 30+ cents (I almost pengsan by then
as it was more than 100% of my entry price, didn't cut losses as I was holding for long-term)
No other bad news from middle-east. Market sentiments improved. Construction companies' prices gradually crawl up, aided by the prospect of benefits from the stimulus packages. LCL was lagging behind but was slowly crawling up too
News of delay in Q4 2008 report caused LCL's prices to drop from 60+ cents to 50 cents but picked up quickly. Rallied further after the report was released until current price.
As such, to me, LCL's prices has gone back to it's original price in Q4 2008, which I already considered very low (70-75 cents). Since it has lagged behind as compared to other construction companies (WCT, ZELAN, etc), it's price might just go up further but of course, subjected to the market's trend (if might drop if the Fen shui chart is correct
). As a reference, WCT, which was the one who had it's contract cancelled, has crawled up higher that it's original price just before the crash of the cancelled contract.
Mind you, LCL is not a construction company per se, it is a IFO - Interior fit-out company.
Not to mean I recommend LCL. It's just my 0.0002 ikan bilis cents.
I had the misfortune of acquiring 7000 WCT shares at 1.70 the day before they annoued the cancellation of the contract for the racecourse. However, i didnt joined the panic selling bandwagon and are still holding on to all the shares now. They made a loss in Q4 08 but i hope they report a profit in Q1 09. I hope they have alredy dumped all their writeoffs pertinent to the cancellation in their Q4 results. Most companies did that anyway in Q4 last year. I am still unclear about the direction of the construction industry in the middle east in general. I have also seriously thought about acquiring LCL shares but my experience with WCT made me think twice
Apr 27 2009, 12:08 AM, updated 17y ago
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