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 Stock Market VERSION 24, Road to Recovery !!!

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htt
post Apr 22 2009, 01:35 PM

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Check in.
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post Apr 24 2009, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 24 2009, 12:51 PM)
Rumour says 30% bumi Q of existing listed cos might be lifted soon ( next week ).

Cross the figures.
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That one not much impact on the market I think...
htt
post Apr 24 2009, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 24 2009, 12:56 PM)
Existing all right issues are subjected to 30% condition.

Top up problems.

very difficult position to do that, mah

I mean no clear cut policies who are bumi,  PNB ?
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Oic, you means politically?
But that should be done long ago. Personal opinion only.
htt
post Apr 29 2009, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(kingkong81 @ Apr 29 2009, 08:44 PM)
Looks like DOw might continue its slide for the 3rd day
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Future all green leh...
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post Apr 29 2009, 08:54 PM

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QUOTE(kingkong81 @ Apr 29 2009, 08:52 PM)
Never know until the bell rings...but the report oso said they r waiting for some sort of Fed remark
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Hopefully, I am waiting also...
htt
post Apr 29 2009, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 29 2009, 08:55 PM)
One child killed by flu, but seemed downplay. hmm.gif
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Where? US? Mexico already had a lot sad.gif
That's US, really bad I think.
I better go stockpile mask to sell...

This post has been edited by htt: Apr 29 2009, 09:05 PM
htt
post Apr 29 2009, 09:15 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 29 2009, 09:09 PM)
One thing that I always wonder, normally bear life-time is about 1-2 years in ordinary recession.

Now we have multi-decade global financial crisis which most of us never seen before, this bear which now only last less than 1 year, so soon die already? If taking in Lehman, it just 6-7 months time only.
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But the problem is:
The bear market rally had been there for too long too high to move people from believing in recession to believing in recovery are on sight... really confuse... rclxub.gif
htt
post Apr 29 2009, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 29 2009, 09:10 PM)
Hope the whole thing can be over soon... notworthy.gif
htt
post Apr 29 2009, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 29 2009, 09:17 PM)
But if we look back the history of stock market. Bear market rally is a more powerful and significant rally compared to ordinary bull market, which generally with a line straight up one.  hmm.gif
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That's true... but during that time there are less government intervention, now we are seeing unprecedented rescue package, maybe that 'work'? hmm.gif
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post Apr 29 2009, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 29 2009, 09:21 PM)
No matter how economy recovery or stimulus plan, the core target is to create job.

If job market doesn't improve, any recovery won't able to sustain, we need peopel to have job and more income so that they can spend. Without people spending more, there is no chance of better economy and improved corporate earning eventually a bull market.
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That's exactly what I am thinking but I loss faith to myself as everyday goes by, as the market seems to be proving me wrong sad.gif And hands get itchier by day too blush.gif
htt
post Apr 29 2009, 09:30 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 29 2009, 09:27 PM)
Those days strongest and fittest survive, weak ones die naturally.

Very high interest rates above 10%.

The most important thing now - all can print more money now.
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But will the old pattern hold? Or getting complicated nowadays? rclxub.gif
htt
post Apr 29 2009, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 29 2009, 09:31 PM)
What is more appropriate to describe the current market is that, previously there is overly pesimistic and overly sold off on stock with investors liquidating, deleveraging (especially this part), aka undershoot on the downside, now market correct back upwards.

Realistically we should see market stuck in range bound and sideway for sometimes which should be the more realistic near future trend as any economy adjustment and recover/stimulus take sometimes to be starting to show the effect.
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Maybe I still too 'young' & impulsive brows.gif Need someone to steady me down notworthy.gif
htt
post Apr 29 2009, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 29 2009, 09:34 PM)
Last time - lack of internet access

Now - with internet access

So things go very fast . rclxms.gif

Dow up 67pts
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Better stay away for a while, before I committing myself in tongue.gif
Think a lot of US kakis here nowadays... biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by htt: Apr 29 2009, 09:39 PM
htt
post Apr 30 2009, 10:58 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 30 2009, 08:52 PM)
The reason why Bjtoto wants to give generous dividend again (even though now with 8% pa interest debt) is to give the cash to Bjland (its parent company) to pay for its borrowing.

Bjtoto has over paid its dividend it doesn't have.

It is a good company but with burden of its parent company.
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BJ Toto is the cash cow of the whole group, whenever anyone in the group run into problem, BJ Toto have to raise cash for them, sometime have to borrow to satisfy their needs also, if not mistaken BJ Land just clear its inter company debt from BJ Toto not long ago (but the loan carry interest at least). I hate that kind of activities, disregard minority shareholders interest. sad.gif
htt
post May 1 2009, 01:14 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 1 2009, 11:02 AM)
For the discussion of price being deducted from the dividend. Actually it makes no different.

If KLSE doesn't deduct the Opening price, people will also trade it lower after ex-date.

Yesterday closing was 3.30. Today ex-30 cents dividend, so people won't be stupid to buy at 3.30 again today. People will put 3.00 to match the same pricing of yesterday. The different is in showing -0.30 (if price not deducted) or 0.00 (if deducted the price)

The price deduction is to avoid for newbie and not well informed people to fall into the 'trap', so that, they won't be putting 3.30 to buy as to think 3.30 is the same price of yesterday.

Even price being deducted out, if company still give the same dividend next year, it will move back up the same price as well. So nothing to worry or unfair.
Price is about demand and supply dictated, no matter how KLSE deduct or not deduct the price, market will be self corrected and the share price is always a reflection the willingness of people to buy it, which over long term can't run away the basic fundamental of the company.
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In my opinion Bursa should let the market force to determine the fair value of the share, even after dividend ex.

My assumption base on a company X with NTA of RM4.00, CD RM3.30, DIY RM0.30.
The reasons being:
1. Liquidity of the dividend (RM0.30) constitute 7.5% of NTA but 9.09% of current share price, thus not in proportion with the adjustment in terms of percentage.
2. RM0.30 is hard cold cash which should be value higher than the rest of the NTA if the company's valuation on asset is high and vice verse.
3. At the point of time when dividend ex, the NTA might had been grow or no grow or grow in negative direction, then make the deduction method totally irrelevant.

Just my 2 cents...
I think I echo sky on that.

This post has been edited by htt: May 1 2009, 01:17 PM
htt
post May 1 2009, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ May 1 2009, 02:59 PM)
Well, i like this thread basically there are some forms of awareness created among the so called small fish investors.

Like the case of B Group, i would never put my money into this group, no matter how good the financial reports are.

Though we are living in the internet age, and doing the internet trading, one thing remains the same, our market is still a very imperfect and not matured market, and transparency is grossly absent.

So it is good to share what we know.

Correct me if I am wrong.
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But even Bursa did the implementation, the move can never confuse seasoned trader/ investor, just need to pay extra attention only.

B Group goreng stock, I don't like them but the movement always attractive. Someone still can recall their tussle with MUI? I think that prove a lot of movement...

Now reporting season, let see how the companies did last Q. I think if the result ok & US side stable, we are moving back on track, just locomotive of growth might not be the same one again... Also notice nowadays companies prefer to hold cash than anything, if that's the case, I think we will be at the low side (if not lowest) of a L recovery...

Just my personal opinion... tongue.gif
htt
post May 1 2009, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(oumind @ May 1 2009, 09:28 PM)
Does anyone wonder banks on Wall Street report profits?  Those in accounting field should know  rclxms.gif
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No need to be in accounting to know also.

Banks' transaction gain on the spread of interest & commission & fee. Last Q credit crunch was loosen a bit -> a lot of company refinance their loan/ bond -> bank earn fee/ commission from transaction -> bank book the fee/ commission into CIS (P&L known formerly) -> profit rise.

But write down still a lot & they actually change the accounting standard to accommodate more held to maturity financial instrument (FI). Banks can classify a lot of sour asset into it and sit on top on it for another year and hope they turn sweet.

Generally profit rise.
But coming Q, those with good credit rating & record & wish to refinance their loan already did that in first Q, then the fee/commission goes down, write down maintain, then some bank might go into red again.
I don't know I correct or not, just guess, and I am no account person in bank tongue.gif
C raised US$5.9b by selling Japan broker operation. Maybe they can hold longer then. tongue.gif
htt
post May 3 2009, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(Kinitos @ May 3 2009, 09:52 AM)
Hey didn't the all the chinese recently handle over their billions of money to buy up all the 5% safe haven government bond. This alone shows ALL the chinese have 100% faith in present government.

OR the Indians and Malay are smart they keep their hard earn money to themsevles.

With all these billions contribute by the chinese, the govenment can now paid the GLC staff better to improve their work performance and quality. There is also enough money now to send more students overseas to further their education.
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I don't think paying government staff more can improve their performance & quality, if people have no fear or losing their job (worst is just transfer to another place), there are hardly ant improvement they can make, paying more might only end up being asked more next time only.
Sending students oversea? I think we should look at the brain drain index of bolehland, are we going to contribute to other countries again? Since we have too much brains on our disposal.
sad.gif
htt
post May 3 2009, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(kb2005 @ May 3 2009, 09:33 PM)
This one i agree. biggrin.gif
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I also agree, but there might be some other factors on this leh...
htt
post May 4 2009, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(goognio @ May 4 2009, 12:34 PM)
Huaan's PE is 628x woo. not healthy i think
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Though I don't have any in hand, but the PE things cannot be taken 100% one. We have to look into the company as a whole, and Huaan making profit for 3Q, 4Q loss wipe out the 3Qs profit. But 4Q loss mainly attributed by low selling price of product, so if the price recover in 1Q'09, then the PE thing can be totally throw out of windows (but if price not recover... hmm.gif ).
Just my personal opinion... tongue.gif

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