i did some calculation last night,
i decided to sell of most of my "rubbish" shares & get a PBBANK shares

i am not good in looking at graph, but judging from PBBANK performance in year 2007
it is moving upwards, bits by bits
from RM 7.xx to RM 11.xx (the share price went up RM 4.00 in a year)
the shares went deep down in Feb & Aug 2007

Feb 2007 : unknown factor, according to the seniors here, composite went down 100 points on that day itself!
(i wasn't at the stock market that time, so i am not sure what was happening)
Aug 2007 : US subprime issue, hit most region markets badly, every counters are down



what i want to highlight here is,
PBBANK shares is pretty stable
the max it went down during Feb & Aug 07 was around RM1.00
and then it slowly take a couple of month to climb back, and move upwards

based on my observation, safe price to buy PBBANK is around 10.80
but due to the upcoming financial report & dividends declaration (probably next week)
i expect the price to go up above RM 12.00

therefore, let's see how it react on Monday (since DJIA plunge 200++ points on friday night)
i shall report again once i got the shares
my TP is RM 12.00 (for short term), while RM 15.00 (for long term)

how many lots have you bought ?

another reason for getting PBBANK, is the dividends

Year 2007
Interim 25¢ - 01-Aug-07
Final 30¢ + Special 10¢ - 16-Mar-07

Year 2006
Interim 20¢ - 03-Oct-06
Final 20¢ + Special 15¢ - 21-Mar-06

Year 2005
Interim 20¢ - 08-Aug-05
Final 35¢ + Special 15¢ - 01-Apr-05

i havent own any yet, but SOON!

one of my resolution for the year (in share market), is to own a heavy weight counter, which could help me to roll in more money by the end of the year 2008

if want to look at dividend should look at maybulk and berjaya toto

last friday, early morning at 9 something
i look at the movement of PBBANK, PBBANK-O1 & its call warrants
the call warrants & PBBANK-O1 started to move
but PBBANK still at the previous day closing price, which was 11.00

i sense something,
so i quickly call up my remisier to buy PBBANK (for intra day purposes)
i queue at 11.00, mana tau, not long after, the price went up to 11.30 (highest for that day), haha!



you guys may buy the PBBANK-CD (to keep for atleast a week)
reason : PBBANK will announce its financial report on the coming week, and also announce the dividends for March 2008
once mothershares move, the child will follow
look at the statistic on last friday, PBBANK-CD is one of the top trading volume

Good choice Pana, maybe I'll join you if I can free up some cash. But I kind of worry that now everyone want to push up KLCI, we may be caught in a bull trap. But RM10.80 is a fair price for PBBANK, I prefer it below RM10 though.

exactly, that is part of my concern, too - that market now is too bullish, due to the pre-GE rally
therefore i plan to slowly accumulate, getting 500 to 600 shares first, and when market is cooling down, buy in again, until i accumulate 1000 shares

once i reached my 1000 shares target
and if i have extra cash & price is attractive, i'll set 1500 shares as my next target.

PBBANK is one sound dividend counter to keep in your portfolio.
The chairman himself (Tan Sri Teh Hong Piow) is one of our most respected corporate leader. Recently I saw his book at MPH, regarding his story. He's another inspiration, next to late Tan Sri Lim Goh Tong.
As long as he's running PB, the stock will be stable and growing at the same time. Good one Pana

If u read my reply to the begineer, don remember wht name..my sugguest to buy in PBank is 10.80...Yeah!! we hv the same mind!!!



I do not know how u got this RM10.80; but let me share with all of us here...how i define RM10.80

I have calculate it's EPSGR abt 15%, intrinsic value RM14.50, 25% of the 14.50 will be 10.80 (Only advise small volumn for short term); but pls be carefull if this price also quite high...fair value RM 8.50..(wait for market crash to shop)...

I would buy after the next correction

Pana,
Remember to discount the potential dividend given out if really want to go for the CW, as dividend given out will be deducting the share price out.
I didn't do the fair value calculation on its CWs now but the dividend issue need to be taking into it.

If CWs is trading at discount after deducting out the potential dividend then CWs can be considered depends on individual issue which I will put on the below scenario especially regarding cash flow issue.
For eg.

You really want to buy PBBank at 11.00, so one will fork out 11K for it.

On the other hand,
(this seldom happened but do happen occassional when market tumble time) If PBBank-Cx after adding up conversion value and its price, total value let say it is trading at 1.00 (exercise 9.40, ratio 1:1) = 10.40, potential dividend expected in the period before Cws expired 0.60, so in this case, it is more wise to go for CW as you have the advantage of gearing.
As CW will move tightly with mothershare price, even if its expire, you can fork out the money to buy its mothershare latter which in turn has the same amount and effect with initially straight away fork out 11K for it.
That's how hedge funds, portfolio managers play their game on it.

Scenario 1
Fork out 11k straight away

Scenario 2
Buy fair value/discount CW/W at 1.00 (to simplify the case without consider dividend first exercise price 10.00, ratio 1:1), you free out the 10K in the period before CW expire, the 10K even put in FD still gain interest out of it.

Eg. when CW expire time
Pbbank share drops to 10.00,
Scenario 1 & 2, both lose 1K, same. You stil can fork out 10K to buy it afterwards when CW expired which in turn same as 11K initial put out

Pbbank share drops to 9.00
Scenario 1 lose 2K
Scenario 2 lose 1K, while you can fork out 9K which become total cost of owning Pbbank become 10K only compared to 11K initially.

Pbbank share goes up to 12.00
Both gain 1K while scenario 2 gains extra FD interest out of 10K in the period before CW expired.

This only applicable to Warrant or CW that are trading at fair value or discount after taking account of dividend issue.

Just sharing some information. Judge you own based on which one suit to you.

Since u do like Dato Teh Hong Piow so much, do u study at another share LPI capital Bhd 8621 own by him??? The performance of this share s not bad too...

like i said b4, its act tradin vry near to long term upper trendline.. if u belief it can break d trendline, yes, its a good time to buy.. goodluck

I do like PBBank too... But i'm concern over his successor planning... If i'm not mistaken he's quite old already...



Sourced from wikipedia, he's now at the age of 78...

Yeah I remember reading an article about PBBANK not having an obvious successor like Genting.

Buy PBBank at RM8.50 this is the fair value. Let change topic to another counter LPI capital

What's the current PER of PBBank?

PER:21.60
DY: 5%
Sourced from KLSETracker.

That PER would be based on last years EPS. More current would be around 18x PER or so.

LPI is one stable defensive counter to keep too, but I am not very familiar with this company. Maybe you could enlighten me more?
This means that I have another counter to keep an eye on and research on.

PER is not important anymore....fair value is the most important to buy the sahre....:>

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Added on January 13, 2008, 3:10 am
LPI is a stable company..any way i'm think that the price is still high now....let's shop during market crash,,,,.....possible after election....

[attachmentid=378103]

if i not mistaken the graph do it osmething like that
from this graph it will drop slightly. because since after august it has not really drop much and keep going upward trend.
i think it will go down later on.
oh well anyway this is a good counter to invest on if for long term

PER is important to some extend, because it tells a tale on the fair value.
To identify a growth company, the first measure we would compare is the PER, in my humble opinion
A PER that is decreasing indicates that the company is growing, but the growth has not been reflected in its share prices.

LPI's DY at current is around 8x, so I believe at a price of below RM12, the DY is attractive at close to 9x.
The problem is that I don't have any software to look at the payout track record as what I see posted by some forumers here.
I do not trade using any online platforms, so any softwares you could recommend me?



For long term investment, any sort of technical analysis is not really relevant, as charts don't really tell you the fundamentals. It merely tells you the trend, which could be an indication for entry.
There is definitely downside potential for this counter, but we won't really know the time.
If PB is successful in disposing off its NPLs like Maybank, then we could see further upside in its price.
Is there anyway we could find out the NPL owned by each banks?

@cherroy

thanks for highlighting the two scenarios

for long term basis, i'd still go for the mothershare.

however, i dun mind playing a day trade on the PBBANK CW, that is only applied when i see the mothershare started to move. (quick in quick out, no hanky panky, i dun want to hold any CW in my portfolio)

making a record here...

PBBANK shares is hovering between 11.10 to 11.20
i wonder what does it mean?

p/s: ohyah, i have cleared most of my rubbish shares, lol
money is in hand now, i queue for PBBANK at 10.90
feel like a little impossible to get that price on today

I thought you will buy it at RM10.80? You're worried it cannot be reached?

Let's make target at RM10.80; I think will still down to 10.80 later this week..patient...

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Added on January 14, 2008, 12:38 pm
Noted..
LPI capital will be paying interim dividend soon...see below, last year announcement on January..Any good news ?

4 Jul 2007 LPI Interim Dividend 30 Sen 16 Jul 2007 25 Jul 2007 18 Jul 2007
3 Jan 2007 LPI Final Dividend 55 Sen 5 Feb 2007 13 Feb 2007 7 Feb 2007
3 Jan 2007 LPI Special Dividend 25 Sen 5 Feb 2007 13 Feb 2007 7 Feb 2007
6 Jul 2006 LPI Interim Dividend 25 Sen 3 Aug 2006 11 Aug 2006 7 Aug 2006

i'll see how afternoon session goes.

PBBANK is A MUST to grab!!!

panasonic88,
mind to share with us, how many lots u will grap???

as many as possible

Pana, I think your wait would be futile.
If it is as you mentioned, they could announce their dividend soon.
So, the stock could rally bit by bit before the payout because market would be looking forward for higher dividend, and possibly quick exit ex-d.
Maybe you should wait until after the ex-d, because it looks risky to chase it now.
Just my 2 cents

wow i feel pressured to post the price and qty

nobody interested to buy PBBANK mah?

Based on the history of their payouts, they have been increasing y-o-y, so I do believe an announcement is on its way in the next few days.
By looking at the way PBBANK and LPI are being chased up, it is even closer as many expected. Could be this week or the next.
I am putting my money on a FD of 60 sen and SD of 25 sen, making the total payout to 85 sen, which translates to 6.8% based on the current price of RM12.50. Anyone want to take their chance?

o'right, just to make a record

i am now a PBBANK shareholder, officially

as for price & qty,
i prefer to keep it to myself
will update again if i were to buy in somemore (next target to buy in: RM10.00)

cheers!

p/s: i feel so secure owning a PBBANK than the other foreign warrants

This is definite true.
So each time we bank with Pbbank or buying PB or PM UT fund, you earn our money! Haha

longterm should not be wrong for this counter. Annual return could be around 50% to 80% for my case..... GoodLuck.

lol cherroy you are so funny

yuppie smartly, i am looking forward for year end, wanna see how much PBBANK shares will appreciate

Congratulations, future Tan Sri Pana
Let me make a wild guess (just a wild one), that you bought your lot at RM11.10?
You should be able to buy close to RM10.00 after the payout.



50% - 80% annual return?
Are you really sure on that?

Jordy, dun wan to tell you

Yes, is true, in fact is > 80% when annualised it..... i got bonus issue of 4:1 and still keeping untill now...
That's why i said it won't be wrong when keeping longterm with this counter....

wow i didnt know that PBBANK used to give out bonus issues

what year was that?

Year 2003.....see link.
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Atta...=post&id=377963

wow, another long term PBBANK shareholder!

our friend cherroy owns PBBANK-01 shares for 7 years (or maybe more) already, he bought it dirt cheap, 1.xx only

Ur forecasted FD & SD absolutely rite..recommended dividend payout 80 cts ..increase of net profit after Q4 result out today...there will be moving up trend my guess...

PBBANK owns 4.89% of LPI shares

wow i wish PBBANK & LPI will shoot up together on tomorrow

I'm hoping for FD of 35% & SD of 15% for PBBANK.....

Yup it was Pbbank-O1.

It may be once a life time opportunities, due to financial crisis which is very very severe at that time. To be precise it was 0.88 (I remembered because of this figure also ), but back then it is a 0.50 Par value share, it was being merged intp Rm1 par value shares year ago, so 2 shares become 1 share. It is nothing to shout about, a lot of people suffer significant loss during that year (1998) including me, not the like of subprime plunge in the August, (just a peanut if really want to compare, it is similar to housing stocks in US currently, to be more like to like comparison, housing stocks in US has already dropped more than 50-70% now) but market across even good stocks are dropping more than 50% and more.

It occassionally does give out bonus issue, but personally view bonus issue is not actually a 'bonus', your holding value is still the same, if price doesn't go up. Nothing changes much due to bonus issue alone.
80% of annual return over long term is almost impossible, but 1-3 years average can be, but not 5-10 years time. Long term (decades) of return rate 20% pa and above is considered very good already.

No one can foresee future, it is right that you may sustain a gain of 80% of annual return for now, it may not last when the market crash and you share drop back to where it was B4, then your 80% anuual return turn out to be 0% gain but dividend play an important role here whereby by giving 6% - 8% a year is still very much better then FD. It is true buying this type of counter achieving 20% pa is definitely a possible approach coz the div alone already cover almost half of the goal, if market is good the growth rate for this stock is definitely higher than you expected. At the moment i having 80% pa is calculated base on div, BI + appreciation of stock. Is the biggest gain so far in my portfolio.

You no need to tell me also I can read your mind la

Oh, the Q4 result already out? Still haven't got the time to see the results.
Maybe end of the month I will browse through the results.
These days I am watching closely at my counter to see if I have any chance to jump in.